Some Words About Next Week

Good Wednesday evening to one and all. We have another cold night ahead of us as temps drop into the low and mid 20s. That will be followed up by sunny skies and 40s for Thursday. Wait… you guys don’t want to talk about the next few days? Nah… neither do I.

All eyes continue to be focused on the wintry potential for next week. As usual, the steady hand of the European Model is leading the charge with how things play out. It was the first to pick up on next weeks potential and the last two runs of the model look nearly identical. Check out the latest run…

It shows a series of lows this weekend into Monday with the main storm working just to our south before cranking up across the Carolinas by Tuesday night and Wednesday. That’s usually a good track for wintry weather around here. Now, watch this storm blow up and slow down along the east coast…

That’s an extreme setup as the storm cuts off. That’s also a solution that the pattern says is likely to happen. You simply cannot get that much blocking across eastern Canada and Greenland without a storm cutting off. Those maps bring some very cold air and frequent snow squalls and showers our way after any possible storm impact.

So… will that storm really impact Kentucky? I cannot tell you that at this point, but we are in the game. The upper levels are filled with disturbances this weekend into early next week and the models have a whole lot on their plate with figuring out which one of these disturbances actually produce storms.

You often hear me talk about how some models are superior to others. The European Model is in a class of its own in terms of pure power and resolution. It also leaves other models in the dust with verification scores. That does not mean it can’t be wrong or have a couple of bad runs. That’s certainly a possibility here and only time will tell.

I leave you with another obscure Christmas video classic…

Have a great evening and take care.

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21 Responses to Some Words About Next Week

  1. feederband says:

    I admit that I like this song. I liked as a teen in the 80’s and now as a 40 something. I also like the cold forecast next week.

  2. Chris Mercer says:

    Interesting study on NWS temps. The low forecast for Lawrenceburg last night was 24. It hit 19. Tonight the low forecast is 19 (going with last night) but it is nine degrees warmer now (32 Vs. 23) than it was last night. I’m kind of keeping track on how far off they are on low temps. So far 5 degrees. Looks like it might be more tonight?

    • MJ says:

      In the early evening forecast the low was forecast to be around 24 in that area. I went back and looked at the forecast updates and it was lowered it 20 after midnight. Current forecast has 20 in the Lawrenceburg area and the KY Mesonet site, 7 miles south of Frankfort (which is closed to Lawrenceburg for a reference) is down to 24 as of midnight. So, I think the forecast is OK at this point. May be a little warmer tonight since there is a little bit more wind out there. Of course your temperatures in your backyard will vary.

  3. WXman says:

    GFS does still show a snowstorm for Christmas week. Interesting..

  4. james says:

    Come on European! Hopefully the other models will join in by this weekend.

  5. Emerson Biggins says:

    All the POWER OF POSITIVITY is working. It’s coming together, It looks cold and smowy all the way to the New Year. It’s going to happen, OLD SCHOOLER is on the way! Maybe more than one. Remember, POWER OF POSITIVITY!

  6. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Let the delusional hype begin. I will become a believer only when I see the 3 major north american & Euro forecast models all come to an agreement on a certain track. I have seen too many white winter disappointments.

    • Rachel says:

      And I will become a believer only when I actually SEE it on the ground with my own two eyes 😛 — but it is fun to track and read all the forecasts!

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        Latest Tuesday forecast from Weather Underground for Louisville is 52 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Weather Channel goes 44 degrees with a 40% chance of showers. I’ll split the difference and say 48 degrees with a 20% chance of showers and the elusive chance of rain changing to snow showers on the back side. Snow and Cold Dome are fully operational. ☔

  7. JJTeach says:

    Very anxious to hear about the overnight model runs tonight. How awesome would it be if they all would start coming together on a track that would give all of Kentucky snow for next week’s storm?!?!

    Still crossing my fingers….

  8. Joey Wilson says:

    Liking this more and more and will REALLY like it when/if the GFS comes around to the European model solution!

  9. patty says:

    Not gonna think about it, not gonna think about it, not gonna think about it!! I can keep my fingers crossed though!!

  10. Harliquinn says:

    I want a white Christmas as much as the next person, but please early in the week or on the weekend so that I can drive safely from London to my parents’ in Cincinnati and my sister and brother-in-law and their kids can fly in safely from Seattle on the Friday before Christmas.

  11. Danny says:

    I’m not impressed with next week storm as far as wintery precip goes I just don’t think will have enough cold air to work with. Cold rain here as usual alot of things would have to come into place to get a wintery set-up here in KY. It’s possible just not likely. This storm will put a decent snow for the east coast mid atlantic states.

  12. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Sheldon Cooper seems to get the truth about Christmas.

  13. Todd says:

    Just watched Louisville mets none of them gave a chance at snow next week, here we go again, same maps much different forecast possibilities, go get em Chris

  14. BubbaG says:

    As long as CB keeps using the term “wintry” in an outlook, I get the feeling of a mix event. Something about the term “wintry” being used during the winter seems wrong and term used as each year becomes a big snow downer for most of us.

    Me thinks a little girl is walking around with a football and a mischievous grin 😉

  15. bjenks says:

    Where is Emerson and his positive reinforcement….It has been since 09-10 that the Lou. area has seen anymore than 2 inches of snow (unless you count the 3 or 4 inch snow, that melted before everyone got out of bed to see, last March) We are overdue for a nice snow. This weekend will provide the first low that will become stronger as it moves to the NE. This will usher in the cold that is needed for the second, third and possibly the fourth low that moves through our region next week into Xmas week. The table is set we just need the right track. UKMET and EURO seem to be on board with this a few days out. I know 98% of CB followers are non-believers, the dome, the fence, cold rain, to far south, to far east. As Emerson said yesterday until we reverse the trend of negativity then 98% of the snow will miss us. THINK POSITIVE AND THINK SNOW!!!!
    OH YEAH! I am NOT part of the 2% with a positve attitude! I will only believe it when I see it. Sorry Emerson if I let you down, but I am trying I really am trying!!!!
    Thanks CB can’t wait to follow the models over the next fews days!
    Have a great day everyone!

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