Updating A Busy Week Ahead

Good Sunday everyone and thanks for dropping by KWC. As if being a bit under the weather isn’t enough… I’m on the road and having Internet issues to boot. Throw all that together and you have the recipe for a quick update and quieter than normal day from me.

Lets go the headlines route:
- Our weekend is wrapping up on a mild note. A few scattered showers will fire up from time to time.

- Low pressure works right on top of us Monday as rain becomes fairly widespread. Winds will gust up as temps fall late in the afternoon and evening from the northwest.

- A few flurries or a snow shower is possible by Tuesday morning… Especially in the north and east.

- The next storm system continues to speed up its arrival time. It should get into the state Wednesday night and early Thursday. A powerful area of low pressure works toward the Great Lakes and will drag a strong cold front quickly eastward. Even the GFS has it…


- Thursday starts with rain and temps in the 50s. It will end with temps going below freezing with snow showers and squalls breaking out. These squalls continue into Friday and the GFS Ensemble mean shows this well…


- This sets up a cold patter that takes us into Christmas week. This will likely include a few systems rolling west to east to our south. That may put is in line for additional snow threats during the big week.

That’s as much of a post as I can get you from an iPhone. If I can update later today, I will. If not, in will make it up to you later tonight.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.


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72 Responses to Updating A Busy Week Ahead

  1. Derek says:

    Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32.
    Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 53.
    Wednesday Night A 10 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.
    Thursday A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54.
    Thursday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
    Friday A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
    Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.
    Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 30.

    This what NOAA has for me next week. Hope they are wrong. Seeing as to how JKL has such a comical track record. However The weather channel and accuweather have much of the same forecast, it is hard to argue. The big event/switch to winter scheduled for the 7th-14th obviously never happened. We got a cold front and that is about it. The models do continue to show a shift to more wintry conditions, but haven’t they for the past two months. Oh well, I would just like to see Bailey for once forecast a week with no snow and tell it like it is. Forget next week. The models have been showing winter coming in with a blast NEXT WEEK for the last two years. So sick of seeing what the GFS and EURO are showing a week from now. If models are all we have to go on, then an accurate weather forecast can’t be expected more than 12 hours out and what we see going on outside our windows. Anyone can check out model runs. What happened to the negative NAO and why is this greenland block not delivering? What can we expect as far as blocking goes? Obviously the GFS and its ensembles are a joke. They have shown us getting snow since late october. What is the overall pattern suggesting sincen we are going to be in a neutral ENSO vs. a weak to moderate El nino? Give us the meteorology instead of next weeks GFS and EURO runs.

    • Tyler says:

      you are completely out of line!!

      • Chelle says:

        I agree Tyler,rude and disrespectful. If you dont like what chris has to say,stay away from his blog. Go to the ones that KNOW IT ALL. No one makes you read this site. YOU GO CHRIS

        • laura says:

          I totally agree. I enjoy ever day what Chris has to say. Chris has a tuff job. Weather can be unpredicable. So if u dont like this website go else where please. Keep up good job Chris u are doing great.

    • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

      He only can read what the models suggest, anybody who takes an extended model as the gospel is snorting the snow powder. Who can really tell you what will actually happen on Xmas day. But I do understand your frustration that with today’s technology it seems that forecast could be more accurate a week out.

    • Mike says:

      Instead of being so negative how abou go somewhere else. I am sure negative, critical land would love to have you.

    • Matthew says:

      “So sick of seeing what the GFS and EURO are showing a week from now.”

      I would say then do not read here if you do not like it. I respect want you say and am not trying to be rude at all. I though, love to see what the models show. And CB has said many times that he is not completely believing what the models show. He is just putting it out there.
      As for the switch I cannot remember exactly him saying that it all would be cold. Somehow I had it in my mind that I read that the temperatures would drop and then warm again before the next round but that the pattern would become active. And it sure did get cold here (seasonally instead of the above average and a day or so below.) On top of that it has been much wetter with some snow flurries and such one day. Of course they did not stick.

    • SK says:

      One bad apple, in this case, Derek, spoils the bunch! At least he attempted to. Fortunately, for most of Chris’ devoted followers/readers, we take comments like Derek’s with a grain of salt and go on. It’s so easy to get bent out of shape when someone makes a jab at someone who is doing something well. Some people are so attention deprived that they choose to post things like this just to get a rise out of people and draw attention to themselves. True, I chose to pay Derek attention today, but Its because I’m posting this as a challenge to Chris’ readers: from now on, ignore these folks who post negative comments and just enjoy the blog and Chris’ hard work and dedication. Have a great week, everyone!

    • Tammy says:

      Chris was the only weatherman in our region that called for snow out of Sandy and we got it. I remember going to work with Chris calling for snowfall and the entire Huntington Charleston weathercasts missed it totally! Give the man a break.

  2. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    I do not know if my previous comments reach this site I apologies if I double down.He can only can read what the models suggest, anybody who takes an extended model as the gospel is snorting the snow powder. Who can really tell you what will actually happen on Xmas day. But I do understand your frustration that with today’s technology it seems that forecasts could be more accurate a week out.

  3. Snowgoose says:

    True dat….I wonder if anyone actually pays for these models? They are usually way off base. If we have a rain to snow scenario from the west or north we get flurries, period. If we have a cold snap with moisture coming in from the south, maybe a 30% chance max of seeing snow. The weather patterns are a whole lot different in Ky. than they were 20 or 30 years ago. We have weather now like northern Georgia did back then.

  4. really? says:

    If you want a forecast go flip on the 6 o’clock news. This is a forum to discuss weather and what the models are saying. By the way, forecasts are based on what models put out and there is NO meteorologist who gets the forecasts right 100% of the time. If you don’t like the page, then leave. Stop whining like a big baby.

  5. Andy Rose says:

    I agree with the 1st part until you mention Bailey’s name everything from that point on shouldn’t have been mentioned if your not happy with what Chris posts keep it to yourself or go some place else

  6. Wishing01 says:

    As if there isn’t enough discord and drama in the world right now! Can we please try to be a little more humane and stop attacking one another. It’s the weather for God’s sake and it’s a prediction. No one can truly predict with 100% accuracy what will happen.

    Thank you CB for trying to keep us informed so we can make adequate plans. Please ignore those who, for whatever reasons, are not appreciative of your efforts. Merry Christmas! May it be white…or not, it will still be Christmas. Let’s try to show the true meaning in our interactions with each other.

  7. Shannon says:

    I have been following Chris since his beginnings on WKYT. I even remember him calling in his weather reports to Brian Collins, when he was a kid. No one in Lexington or any other met I watch or read has the dedication or love for the weather like he does. So please don’t come him and call him out like that. It is very disrespectful and rude. I come here for his insight and experience about Kentucky weather.

  8. rolo says:

    folks it a BLOG and if we can celebrate predistions then u have to be abler to call things out.

    im not doing that, but I respect the POSTER as he not disrespectful he just pointing out MISSED

    • Tyler says:

      pointing out the missed forecast is one thing. but the manner in which he decided to to do it in was completely disrespectful

  9. rolo says:

    forcasted thaty was given by Bailey, Bailey is not GOD, and guess what he was wrong bout winter 7th thru 14th, but the models are who to beat up if u wanna beat anybody up.

    Bailey

  10. rolo says:

    like I said ANY POSTER should be allowed to call SWINGs and MISSES.

    so get off the posters back, he frustrated early on, BUT

    Bailey winter forcast he said MOST OF ANY SNOW that comes would be late Jan into Feb. remember its a BLOG and u have to get interest into it or u never get any hits.

    the birds are chirping this morning, its 55 degrees. WOW even rolo would say this forcast was missed, but tryting to predict a week ahead as whatthe weather will be is really hard in the WINTER.

    now if the COLD air builds in Xmas thru first of year we all will be giving Golf CLAPS to Bailey.

    I been here since start and alot u all have as well, so we know how hard it is to forcast, BAILEY is my guy and will be till they bury me up on DARK HOLLER MT!!!

    • Lincoln says:

      Yeah, we are lucky to have a met from a local station who has is own personal website which is updated 3-4 times a day. It’s the dedication that I really appreciate.

  11. Mike M says:

    Poor Derek. Obviously a snow lover disappointed by the hope of snow seven days away only to be disappointed time and time again. Charlie Brown and I can relate. You had a well thought out post and a lot of excellent points. Problem is, 3 am is not a good time to vent when your ticked off. Next time count to 10 and breathe. Like Andy, I liked what you wrote until you brought Chris down with it.

  12. Coffeady says:

    I seem to remember Chris saying temp swings and POSSIBILITIES if snow. Never said that his thoughts are set in stone. While you are entitled to your own opinions, and have the freedom to express them, it is still a fact that this blog is for weather lovers of all seasons, not just winter. I have learned a lot about weather from reading this blog. Fine if you disagree, but don’t diss Chris because you disagree.

    Thanks, Chris. Hope you feel better soon. Have a great Sundsy, everyone.

  13. Tominlou says:

    Chris is an excellent meteorologist. This site is also extremely informative and it’s a daily stop, multiple times, for me.

    That said, truth hurts. As a professional weather guy, one can get away with a lot of wiggle room in their words and predictions. But in the end, you always have the, “Well, no matter what, no one can predict the weather!” statement to fall back on.

    Easy on Derek… he’s not slandering anyone. Just expressing an opinion- something that is tough for a lot of you fanboys to swallow when it’s different than CB’s golden weather chat. I too feel the blog has been off this month. And that’s fine! But like Derek said, it seems the forecasts and model discussion would be better off if they sided with realistic expectations instead of SNOW talk and tanking temps that lead everyone in a different direction.

    66 today and 50s to 60s all week……

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Good post. Let’s just say reading Chris’ blog gives me a better appreciation for the conservative forecasts and outlooks from the National Weather Service offices.

  14. BubbaG says:

    Until folks get that all CB is doing is talking about POSSIBILITIES based on the model outlooks, such perception issues will persist. Considering new folks get on the blog, perception issues will be posted, since like the weather, it is what it is.

    The models are doing nothing different from previous years- they look good and then back off as time progresses. Until we get an actual trend buster, I see nothing to change things.

    CB never said big snow and depending on the met, there is a fifteen degree spread for temps this coming week.

    If people here want rock solid forecasts, the blog would be boring. In some sad way, the outlooks give hope to the snow deprived- in spite of the results. Kind of like being stranded in a desolate palce and a plane goes over periodically but help never comes. You still end up jumping and saying “Over HERE!” every time the plane flies by.

    People, the plane is the model outlooks, or Lucy’s football. Either analogy applies.

    • Leann says:

      I am a weather enthusiast and visit this blog multiple times a day. Like CB, I absolutely love snow! I want to hear about any possibilities of it being in the forcast!!

      I admire and appreciate your enthusiasm, dedication, and hard work Chris!!

  15. weather blog troll says:

    Wow! The negative Nancys are out in full force today.

    We’re all looking forward to your spot on blogs! Oh, you don’t have one? OK….I see.

    I’d say Chris has a pretty darn good track record.

    I’m keeping the faith.

  16. Teach says:

    Chris talks about possibilities and trends on his blog. He tells what could happen in the near future. Sometimes he mentions changes weeks out. Like Bubba stated this blog is about possibilities. I know there is no one better when it comes to a final forecast. When Chris labels his post with final call, lay money on it. And long time readers will note that his final call maps differ very little from his his first call. Plus as a person who lived through the “old school” winters: They happened in January and February. Chill and enjoy the ride.

  17. Emerson Biggins says:

    Chris gives a 2 day forcast followed by what the models are saying. Doesn’t say its going to happen just what they are saying and the difference between them. You have your right to your opinion but take it for what it is, 2 day forcast and then what models are saying. And for everyone STAY POSITIVE, IT’S XMAS,TIME OF YEAR FOR GIVING AND RECEIVING. Also if what we can complain about is the weather then we are blessed, there are people who just lost 20 young kids and the people trying to protect them. WE ARE LUCKY, NEVER FORGET!

  18. TONEY says:

    just because chris says it is going to do something does not mean it will and he never says it will unless he is for certain it will. he is only showing various model runs from days and weeks out and even he says that we will have some wild model swings over the next few days. just like tony cavalier from wsaz mentioned in an earlier blog that there would be a snow and ice day for teachers and students before christmas break….well guess what? looks as though he is going to be wrong. point being is the weather is going to do what it wants to do not what we or chris wants it to do or what the models say it is going to do….just saying.

  19. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    It all comes down to this, do not buy stock in extended models. They are fools gold. Every time Chris shows all the long distant models I am already thinking to myself that this is pure fiction. But remember a broken clock is correct twice a day. I always hold out hope that this splendid model forecast is going to be the one this time.

    • BubbaG says:

      The thing is, why do the models never look bad and then result in good? Seems odd they are always wrong, but in a bad way.

      • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

        Good Point, it like the cost of gas it never goes up a few pennies at a time but it always goes down a penny a day.

  20. KRinRichmond says:

    Looks like we’re gonna have plenty of salt for next winter. If that gives you my winter outlook. most of the country is warmer than normal and not very winterish. Get used to that pattern.

  21. Marsha says:

    Has the forecast change I just watch Kari hall this morning she was still giving cold for the weekend and snow what more do you want its doing just like Chris said slowly we are going into winter.chill people we could be going thought what newtown ct….

  22. Vinny says:

    First, CB runs a fun, interesting and informative blog. He does something most blogs don’t, he lets everyone participate…
    CB gives his weather thoughts, but more importantly, he offers “hope” to all us SNOW lovers. I respect CB for all he brings, FOR FREE I might add, and I’m so thankful he’s not the same on BORING forecast day after day… If you want BORING, this blog is not for you, please move on… If you want informative, interesting weather, that looks beyond the typical 2~3 days retread, one that gives us hope and allows us to DREAM a little, then you’re in the right place..!

    Keep up the good work CB and thank you so much for not asking us for money and allowing ALL of us to express our opinions…

    GO STEELERS..!

  23. Marsha says:

    I was just reading jkl forecast diss they sure shot the cold and snow for Christmas right out of the ball park oh well just glad to be alive and well and able to make my christmas goody……

  24. Todd says:

    The NWS in Louisville discussion are saying a short lived cold blast for Friday with at most a snow shower or 2, after that temps rebound quickly, the forecast is trending warmer, not surprized! maybe January will produce something near winter like??

    • BubbaG says:

      I would be more to the thought we could see a repeat of last year, though slightly cooler- IF the cold air pushes out again. Warm air king- two years in a row. Surely not.

    • Mitch says:

      climo is not that warm for this time of year. Say 40′s for highs.

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        Where are you living? We are on track for the warmest December ever…like last weekend, it’s in the 60′s and is going to stay that way for most of the week. The coolest day in the forecast is a 43 for Friday and the coldest low is a 27. Not sure where Chris is getting that Friday forecast but that isn’t happening.

  25. bjenks says:

    Jan/Feb…..Will bring on the cold and snow…….Any snow we get in Dec is bonus snow. Even if it is just snow showers or flurries. CB said the transition to winter was to start a this week and I feel that it has. He never advertised a snow storm or sustained cold only the transition to winter. Everyone please take a look at the calander. To my knowledge it is still Fall. We haven’t even started the Winter season unless you are a professional met and you follow Meteorological winter which I believe started on Dec. 1st.
    Anyhow….Chris I hope you feel better and have a good Sunday and thanks for the update. You are the man.

    • BubbaG says:

      We had the same exact discussions and rationale last year and at the same time. Difference here is Minnesota has already gotten smacked this year and did not last year. This means at least the cold air is winning SOME of the battles now. Cold air surrendered last year.

      • bjenks says:

        Yes, I agree! Last year the cold never released into the lower 48. Of course the indicies where not as they are this year. La Nina to Weak El Nino or close to Neutral. No Greenland block to having one. Except for the above normal temps (Dec. only) this fall is different from last. Also more snow for the Midwest this week. Only helps our case for a cold and snowy season. Out to work in the yard to complete my winter cleanup. Will check back later.

        • Pierce says:

          Last year there was no cold to come into the US! Haha. I agree with you on this week’s feel. I mean we could be looking at severe weather to snow on thursday in a matter of hours! Also, I expect late this month onto the next too to be cold and snowy as well. I appreciate your opinions on this blog significantly.

  26. JimInBooneCounty says:

    snow…we get plenty here in NKY…..(rubbing it in a little)

  27. Joey Wilson says:

    Interesting thoughts/rants here today. First of all, I appreciate Chris’ time and devotion to his FREE blog. Secondly, I think the talk of “global warming” and last year’s very warm winter has some of us concerned that the “good ole days 8″ snow storm” might be relic of the past. Even long-range forecasts of sustained days of below average temp. forecasts seem to bust these days.

    Other than the “once in a century” 20″ snow we got in western KY Dec. 22, 2004, I have a hard time recalling any substantial snow in December the past 25 years. Jan, Feb and the first two weeks of March are the times we get big snows–if we get one at all.

    I’d be happy with two 4″ snows this season and there’s still plenty of time for that to happen.

  28. Tyler says:

    check out the CPC’s temp maps….they actually show below normal temps for both 6-10days and 8-14days.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

    • Todd says:

      I’m always told those maps are not very reliable, especially when they show warmer than normal, so I guess the same applies when they show colder than normal!

      • Tyler says:

        I’ve always thought the same thing. I just thought it was odd that below normal temps would be forecast from those maps…..they never show that

  29. Mitch says:

    The main issue is the Pacfic flow and has been all month. The flow has overwhelmed most favorable teleconnections (AO, NAO etc.) If we get a reinforcing shot of cold right before Christmas then that may deflect the storm track further south (25th-27th timeframe). If not then the lakes cutter parade continues. The just in 12z ECMWF has a period of snow and ice Christmas day changing to rain. However the 00z ECMWF had a much further west track of the low, PAC flow controls and builds SE ridge (Cutter). Modeling will need several days to figure out the depth of the Cold air advection from late week on. At least Kentucky has something to track now though I wouldn’t hold out much hope.

  30. KellyinLouisville says:

    If you are going to run a blog, you need to take the bad with the good. Nothing Derek said was wrong…it’s all part of blogging. We’ve had no transition to winter and it looks like one cool day this week with Friday forecast highs in the low 40′s but right back up to 50 by Sunday. Christmas looks warm with highs near 50 degrees. On track for one of the warmest Decembers ever.

    • Tyler says:

      we as the readers are the not the blogger…..chris is the blogger. We just read the blog. if you choose to read the blog you can disagree and/or agree. But if you don’t like the way he runs his blog and the way he does his outlooks, then don’t read!

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        You obviously don’t understand how blogging works, especially the comments section. You take the good with the bad. The Internet is full of millions of blogs where readers get into spirited discussions and yes, that means calling out the writer when they whiff. If they can’t take a little criticism here and there they shouldn’t be blogging. Same goes for the fanboys. The comments shouldn’t be a place to just agree, that’s pretty boring. I like Chris and I like his site. I think he does a great job but I also think Derek was spot on with his take. This hasn’t been Chris’s best month. I’ll be the first to give a shout out when he nails things, which he does more often than not, but this month has been, despite many predicitions to the contrary, about as non winter as one can get. Again, when you put out your thoughts for all to see, they are fair game, that’s the way the Internet works.

        • Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

          I agree 100 percent. Chris is the weatherman not the weathergod. I am sure he can handle a little critique from time to time. By the way this whole conversation on the blog is irrelevant, Chris does not have control over what the models are prognosticating. He is not the person that is in charge with xmitting data into the models.

    • Bengalfan says:

      I totally agree, I would think if your on this site, you like Chris and his blog. It’s exciting to talk about winter. Lets all be real, so far this December has been warm,,and the headlines mostly has been the cold is coming,etc…..week away,,the models are just wrong. Who can dispute that..walk outside! U dont need a coat nor a model or blog to tell u cold isnt here. Oh we’ll,,,it is what it is

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        I do like Chris and I love his blog…I read it every day and I’ve learned so much from it. He seems like a great guy and WKYT is lucky to have him. Wish he had been around when i went to UK. None of us are bashing anybody, just having a spirited discussion. We all love weather and probably all get a but to excited about it. I apologize if I made someone mad, was never my intent.

  31. Mark II says:

    I check this site everyday and love it, however, I do think Chris may need to be in a little less in denial when his forcasts do not pan out. He stated for a fact after the much talked about 7th thru 14th time period that the switch over to the winterery period of weather is right on track, and that the pattern change did happen.

    Well, we did have some coolish days, but it’s been in the 50s and 60s most days since then. It’s obviously the same pattern it’s been all December. Nothing has changed.

    Also, my big question, why even look at the models a week down the road, when they’re wrong 90% of the time?

    • KellyinLouisville says:

      Thank you Mark, you said it better than most of us could. I agree, why mess with the long range models in winter?

  32. Marsha says:

    Chris has your thought change any we really need a update or a small comment these ppl on here sees….

  33. Marsha says:

    Sorry sees…

  34. Marsha says:

    Guess my z key don’t want to work let try this again zees

  35. BubbaG says:

    Wait until the spring-like storms tomorrow to really get people doubting any sustained cold. There is a reason CB keeps using the term “wintry” in winter- it is becoming usual for winter to behave like winter ;)

    I hope I am joking. The key is a sustained average of cold temps. If it is going to be spring one day and fall/wintry the next few- who is kidding who? Even Charlie Brown will become jaded and will stop trying to kick the football.

    That said, even if we do get cold air hanging around, will the precipitation as well? Seems a hollow victory if not.

  36. Andy Rose says:

    Even the blog is breaking down lol had a 500 internal server error a bit ago

  37. snow princess says:

    If I may….Can we just agree to disagree on the weather? It is unpredictable….computers are just that….Chris or any other met can and will miss, by their own mistakes or by the weather doing it’s thing. Come on folks, let just do the sensible thing, open your door, walk out and what you see is what you get! Do that daily and dress accordingly!! LOL, in the meantime, let’s all just enjoy a little converation about the weather and forget who’s wrong or right, puh-lease??? Have a nice evening!! :D

  38. Danny says:

    I think CB should and maybe does understand the frustration of the bloggers. I know CB has alot of loyal supporters I have nothing against that. Being that said I do get real confused and tend do disagree on his post my opinion CB rely’s to much on model’s instead of the science when it comes to weather in the Ohio Valley. A few blogs ago CB commented on this up coming Friday’s weather and said how about high’s in the 20′s with wind chill around 10 with snow squall’s and snow showers. That is not happening try upper 30′s lower 40′s with partly sunny sky’s. That is only a few degrees below normal temp wise. I firmly believe that December is a bust for not only CB but for alot of statewide mets.

  39. ky says:

    Is there really an argument going on on a weather blog?

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