Buckle Up For The Ride

Good Wednesday everyone. Our weather is about to get a little wild and wooly across the bluegrass state over the next few days. We have everything from thunderstorms to snow to go through… and that’s just on Thursday. Buckle up for the ride.

Let me start with a detailed breakdown:

- A powerful storm will sweep from the southern plains into the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Thursday.

- Thursday will start with showers and thunderstorms across much of the state with temps in the 50s.

- A strong cold front swings through during the afternoon and this will cause our temps to tank. Readings will drop below freezing from west to east during the evening hours.

- Winds are going to be very gusty and this may cause some issues. Gusts of 40mph-50mph will be possible from Thursday into early Friday.

- An area of snow showers and squalls will move eastward into the evening hours. The flow by Thursday night and Friday will come down the length of Lake Michigan and spawn widespread snow showers and squalls across central and eastern Kentucky into Friday. Here’s a VERY early first call for snowfall…

Special

- That could cause some slick travel Friday morning for some areas.

- Temps Friday will struggle to get out of the 20s as winds continue to gust to 30mph. That will make it feel like the single digits at times.

What about Christmas week? The operational models are starting to come around to the idea the Ensembles have been showing for the past few days. A weak wave of low pressure works our way Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. A mix is very possible on the front end before going to a chilly light rain for a period.

The main energy then ejects out of the south and works up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains by Late Christmas Day into Wednesday. The GFS and European have a similar look…

GFS

Euro

I will have more updates later today. Have a good one and take care.


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45 Responses to Buckle Up For The Ride

  1. Josh says:

    Like the early call for snowfall. It may go up, the look of the storm after Christmas looks promising. Chris thanks for having a blog and actually updating it. Some claim to have weather blogs and wait almost a month to update them. Not mentioning any names big b lol.

  2. Chris Mercer says:

    I find this mild December fascinating in regards to prospects for snow/cold for January & February. Two more days of mild average temperatures (today and Thursday) are going to make it hard for the last 11 days of this month to keep December from being one of the top 10 warmest. For the rest of the winter, I see one of three scenarios playing out.

    #1:This becomes like the winter of 1889-1890 by far the warmest winter ever in Kentucky. The average temp for the winter was 46.4. But there was 9.5 inches of snow than another 13 or so in March. We would take warm weather and 23 inches of snow right?

    #2: This becomes like the winter of 1982-1983. December 1982 featured highs in the Mid 70s, lows in the 60′s, and 70′s on Christmas Day. January/February turned colder and the average temp ended up 38.3 with about 7 inches of snow. The spring was quite mild.

    #3: This becomes like the winter of 1984-1985. A very mild December followed by a brutal 45 day stretch in January and February that never saw the thermometer crack 40! That winter had 25.8 inches of snow. I think we would take 2 feet of snow in January/February yes? Temps fell to -20 or so here and into the single digits as far south as Florida.

    Which one will it be?

  3. BubbaG says:

    The real question as far as rides is this winter going to be The Beast or The Beastie? You have to have been to Kings Island to appreciate the difference ;)

    Last year was not even The Beastie, but more like a slow merry-go-round.

  4. Not trying to be a Scrooge; rather, I’m looking to see if what you all think. CB’s latest blog looks encouraging next week, but some of us have discovered a new pattern emerging about models looking GREAT for snow/cold a week out…and then they all moderate and keep the colder air further northwest. What makes next week any different than the past three weeks, besides the PNA starting to increase? Just curious/throwing it out there. Thank you! :D

    • Andy Rose says:

      If your just now noticing that your behind in the game ;) but as bubba states we need a trend buster so if it actually happens that would be good

      • bjenks says:

        Trend buster would be really nice! Mr. Fry is also correct about the PNA going positive! I also see the the next two (after tonight) lows tracking a little futher to the south since the snow pack is increasing to our north/west. Little snow action first day of winter, but far from the trend buster needed. Jan/Feb will be cold and snowy!

        • Andy Rose says:

          with the previous season being extreme i’m concerned about this winter being extreme

          • Cameron Fry says:

            Andy,

            Yes, I had noticed earlier this month, but only have gotten fed up with it this past week. It’s easy to say we need a trend buster, but I’m hoping distinguishable evidence can be found in the coming dates that separate the post-Christmas storm from the one that didn’t exactly transpire for this week (although states NW of us are getting pounded). What’s not to say that next week, the same areas will get hit again and we’re left out in the cold (or warm I should say ;) Just playing devil’s advocate. Thanks for all you do, CB!

            • Joey Wilson says:

              The Paducah NWS discussion this morning leans somewhat toward a “winter possibility” on the 25th and 26th. I’m a little encouraged by that.

              • Danny says:

                I agree the NWS is starting to go in the direction of a more wintery pattern. Accuweather did an about face from yesterday there extended outlook has us cold with occasional snow.

          • bjenks says:

            Extreme on the flip side of last year. Could be as extreme as the winter of 77-78. We are so overdue for an OLD SCHOOL rolo snow.

            • BubbaG says:

              Frankly, Rolo’s up one post and down the next rollercoaster action is great regardless of the result :)

              Rolocoaster! That is the new ride for the blog.

        • BubbaG says:

          Yep, we need a trend buster since an actual result will always trump a model outlook or forecast ;)

          • 3789N8436W says:

            Pick a winter from these three: ’77, ’78, ’79….all were WINTER and great in so many ways: snow, snow, cold, no school, snow and cinnamon pie and cinnamon rolls! C’mon WINTER!

  5. Bennet Rucker says:

    I dont know if anyone has noticed, but the 0z EU model actually eliminated Tennessee from being a state. Will follow midday model. Perhaps will again be included in the Union.

  6. Danny says:

    Tomorrow will be one hum-dinger of a day temps near 60 at sunrise with rain and isolated severe weather gusty winds approaching 50 mph and temps tanking with snow squalls/snow showers at the end of the day. I wouldnt be surprised at all to see a wind advisory being issued region wide.

  7. rolo says:

    well that app runjner nexty week would be a NICE track.

  8. Wxman says:

    Yep Rolo that track would be perfect. 06Z model went nuts with it and totally bombed Lexington with snow. Hopefully we will see that idea stick.

    • Russ says:

      I’m following some of the mets from the Louisville area, and they’re calling for a lake cutter next week, with possible a southern storm threat for New Years. So, here we go again, Winter is only 7 days away! Meanwhile, I’m debating getting the lawnmower out and hitting a few places in the yard.

      0.0 Folks. That’s what this winter will produce for snow.

      • prelude says:

        I respectfully disagree winter is going to show first week of January. As far as 0.0 snowfall goes you might be eating those words be tomorrow evening.

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        It won’t be 0.0 but it will be in the low single digits. If winter doesn’t show by the first week of January then bring on spring. And no, tomorrow and Friday don’t count as its back into the 50′s on Sunday thru Christmas.

    • rolo says:

      yep keep our fingers crossed.

  9. Todd says:

    TWC has a forecast high of 55 Christmas Day in Frankfort, they are not seeing much cold air next week?

    • BengalFan says:

      They are probably CORRECT! How can we dispute that at this point!!! How many days now in a row have we been in the 50′s? Mostly high 50′S and yes thats in CKY>

      The actual word for cold/snow is WOLF..Because we have been crying it for a while now!

      • 3789N8436W says:

        Good word for us under the shield/dome….weather ‘in’ crowd can discuss wolfing, ‘watch out for the wolf’, ‘man, did you see how hard it was wolfing!’, Boy, I’d give anything for a good wolf’….fun!

  10. BubbaG says:

    I am sticking with the outlook that this winter will be an average of the last two. Instead of warm air winning all battles, it will be 50/50. After looking at the temp outlooks, it does appear that the weekly pushout trend continues, though not as warm.

    The reality is the forecast and the history has yet to show any sign that cold air and the majority of the moisture from a system can coexist in the three majority of Kentucky. Even clippers have been a profound let down in the past couple years.

    As mentioned, we need a trend buster to knock the area out of the rut.

  11. norman ferguson says:

    I like this website love how he explains everything out and also shows models ,wish I would have found this site out sooner

  12. MarkLex says:

    Well at least signs of winter are showing. Looks like a huge blizzard in central and northwest…

    Someone from Iowa last week on another non-weather forum was complaining about how warm it has been there and how last winter was just awful. Now they are under a blizzard warning.

  13. Wxman says:

    For you Euro model fans.. the new 12z run takes the storm from Texas into Mississippi by the morning of the 26th. Would be a favorable track for snow in KY.

    • MJ says:

      Sorry, but that is not a favorable track for us in the latest 12Z Euro. The model never takes the surface low east of I-65. That run taken verbatim is warm and it would be all rain. The 12Z GFS ensemble also has a similar track and is too warm for snow as well.

  14. MJ says:

    It should also be noted that there has been a clear trend in the models shifting the 12/26 storm to the west (12Z GFS, GFS Ensemble, and 12Z Euro). Is that correct? That is hard to tell at this point. The current low that will affect us tonight and tomorrow will be a major playmaker for the 12/26 event. That low should be somewhere over SE Canada by early next week and may play a role in developing some more blocking. The latest model trends seem to suggest that the block will not be that strong leading to the 12/26 storm heading more west. If the block develops more fully than the models think, then I would suspect a shift to the east with the 12/26 system in future runs. I suppose we’ll just have to sit here and wait.

    • Tom in Rockcastle says:

      If I have learned anything from following this blog and being an amateur weather enthusiast, it would certainly be that putting ones hope in a system that is a week away is pretty much worthless. But on the other hand it can provide some entertainment, by making weather chatter a bit more interesting, if only for a day.

  15. Tom in Rockcastle says:

    I am hoping this season will provide a nice fluffy double digit snow, 10-12 inches or so of the fluffy snow that does not cause much strain on trees or utility lines. I am so tired of these ankle biters, they are more irritating than my aunts miniature poodle, that dog always wants to chew on your shoe when you turn your back to it.

  16. Joey Wilson says:

    Hoping we get some powder from next week’s storm. BUT if we don’t and areas north of us get it, that is a good sign for us down the road. In years when we’ve had good snows, we always missed some to the north before we got ours.

  17. alena says:

    feels like spring outside today. I was in a short sleeve shirt and it felt good out there.

  18. BubbaG says:

    Seems best case is a mix for the weekend. Warm air likes to crash the party, but better cold rain than ice.

  19. Andy Rose says:

    didn’t even show the white christmas meter today lol thats how bad it has gotten

  20. Mark says:

    Next week looks like a repeat of this week. Rain event followed by a brief cold shot and a few snow showers. MOS keeps our temps at or above normal. No arctic air in site for the Ohio Valley. In other words, nothing to see here folks if you like serious cold and snow.

  21. Honestabe says:

    Keep it coming Chris….one more beautiful day and one day closer to spring…

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