Good Friday everyone. We’re kicking off the first day of winter with a nice shot of winter weather. It’s almost as if Mother Nature waited until we flipped the Calendar to start the new season before she let us have some of the good stuff. Snow showers, gusty winds and cold air will rule the day and I’m tracking the possibility of something much bigger next week.

Snow showers and squalls will be fairly widespread early today across central and eastern Kentucky. Anywhere from a coating to an inch or two is likely before the flakes stop flying late today. The winds will whip the snow around so you will see bare spots and spots where mini drifts occur.

Travel conditions this morning will be poor with slick spots and reduced visibility because of the heavy bursts of snow. Winds will continue to gust up to 30-40mph at times and that will make our upper 20s and low 30s feel like single digits at times.

That brings us to two systems I’m tracking for the first half of Christmas week. The first one arrives later Sunday into Christmas Eve. This one will cause light showers to develop during this time and the air may be just cold enough for a light mix… especially in the north. You can see just how close the GFS is with this setup on Christmas Eve…

GFS 2

That map also gives you a look at the next storm developing to our southwest. The models continue to suggest this will become a major storm and impact our weather Christmas night into the middle of next week. The GFS has jumped around a bit of late, but it’s not too out of step with the latest run…

GFS 3

It brings a lead low into the Tennessee Valley before giving way to the primary storm across the Carolinas. The GFS Ensembles suggest something similar…

GFS

The European Model is very similar…

EuroI continue to maintain this setup has the potential for a nasty mix of snow, ice and rain to start before a quick switch to snow. We still have several days to watch the trends in the models. Given the fact this could potentially be hitting on a busy holiday travel day… I won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on a Threat if my confidence grows over the next day or two.

I will have updates later today. Stay safe if you’re out driving and take care.