Snowfall Forecast

Good afternoon everyone. We continue to track a winter storm toward Kentucky. Rain and snow will develop from southwest to northeast this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today have not responded very much at all and the models are busting too warm. We will have to see what impact that has on precipitation type this evening and overnight.

Here is a rough call for snowfall…


Again… we will have to see what impact the colder temps have on the precipitation type. That could move the lines a bit farther south if we don’t see readings respond very soon.

A Winter Weather Advisory is out for much of the state…


Northeastern Kentucky should be included in that advisory. I also suspect we may see an upgrade to a winter storm warning for some of the counties I have outlined for the heaviest snowfall.

I will have updates as needed and will also have the latest on WKYT-TV.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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157 Responses to Snowfall Forecast

  1. Aaron C. says:

    Inch or less in Madison. Fully expect to wake up in the morning here with absolutely no snow on the ground.

  2. Kim says:

    How is it that Mason County is not included in the advisory? Do they think the snow will stop at the county line or something? Strange….

  3. James says:

    I like your call for snowfall for the Louisville area better than any of the local guys. Hope its true.

  4. Angelica says:

    Freezing rain with a light dusting is my call. πŸ™

  5. Rachel says:

    WOO HOO! 1-2 whole inches!? I’m breaking out the snowboard! …

  6. Todd says:

    If we can keep that dreaded warm air advection a little further south, and the snow starts this evening, this time NCentral might do ok with a couple of inches, any deformation bands forming could change the whole ball game overNight??

    • prelude says:

      Todd temps are the key right now I know Louisville is sitting at 34-36 degrees with this strong overcast overhead and this low approaching our chances for any breaks in the cloud cover fade by the hour and so will any huge rise in the temps. I like Louisville chances on this, yes the last set of models runs shifted the 3-6 inch snow’s further north by a hair but nothing at all drastic. 2-4 I think is a good call for Louisville and possibly another inch tomorrow Louisville is borderline with being in that heavy snow path.

      • Todd says:

        Louisvile area looking prime tonight, Frankfort is in that zone of slightly warmer air aloft, hopefully this temperature bust today helps all of Ky get more snow than currently forecast!

        • prelude says:

          I think Louisville is prime as LONG as temps dont go above 38/39. By 4 or 5pm if were still sitting in the mid 30’s Oh it’s game on for snow time. If temps behave Im thinking we might actually have more sleet then rain to start off with then transition to snow & once that happens were locked in.

  7. Lincoln says:

    I’m riding the thin line between 1-2 inches and basically nothing. We all know what happens in that situation!

  8. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Wish the news was better for my part of the state.

  9. swva_fan says:

    Snow flurries falling here just across the KY border in VA this afternoon. Did not see that anywhere in today’s forecasts.

  10. Kat says:

    Move that 3-6 inch a little further south please πŸ™‚

  11. Andy Rose says:

    well since it was never predicted to hit this area no strike 3

  12. snow princess says:

    If the lines move farther south, how far are we talking? Any guesses, or ideas? Thanks. I am in Manchester, would like to see the “coating” increase to at least an inch or two! Isn’t that pitiful? Begging for an ankle biter! LOL! πŸ˜›

  13. MikeM says:

    Sun shining brightly in Woodford county.

  14. Joey Wilson says:

    NWS Paducah has cancelled Advisory for Muhlenberg & Hopkins County because of lack of cold air. Don’t think that’s a good sign πŸ™

  15. Mike says:

    8 – 6 – 24

  16. It’s 38 here as of 12:19. Skies are mostly cloudy, but the sun keeps peeking out. WWA goes into effect at 3

  17. THE ROOSTER says:

    I’m betting on more rain, with the snow fall running with the Ohio River. If I were a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk, I wouldn’t be worried

  18. Lincoln says:

    On the positive side.. out of the next 5 days, only one doesn’t have a chance for snow and that is Sunday–according to the NWS for Lexington.

    • MikeM says:

      I guess I see your point. Instead of heartbreak and misery the next 5 days in a row, I’ll only suffer 4 days instead of 5. I feel better now. πŸ™‚

  19. Todd says:

    Clouds thinning in Frankfort so I guess the dome don’t like these cooler temps today, and the battle begins!

  20. Cosmokramer says:

    High temps too much for snow…..Dome 3, us 0.

  21. Cosmokramer says:

    Loved the loaf of bread comment! Lol

  22. BubbaG says:

    If CB mentions the term “bust” for temps, that does not bring forward hope for this event. 0-3 now?

  23. Bengalfan says:

    Yes, less than 1 for madison co…… thrilled…hopefully patience will pay off

  24. Bill L says:

    Okay….sled and shovel are in my hand. Kids are pumped up for downhill speed! Now, Mother Nature, please deliver the goods πŸ™‚ – Bill in Louisville

  25. MichaelT says:

    38 degrees here at my house in Lexington. Seems spot on with temp forecasting.

  26. Bill L says:

    BTW: Thank you Mr. Bailey and everyone who participates for this blog. It makes winter and the waiting-for-snow MUCH more of an adventure.

    • prelude says:

      It gives me an ulser I hate the waiting game. Just one time I would like the entire commonwealth to just get a hefty snow with no distractions or donut holes or warm air surges or where the freezing line sets up or if the temps will be crutial or when the transiton from rain to snow happens and when it does is there any moisture left. Computer models changing there minds 4 hrs before the low hits. Really!?! Is that too much to ask? Here lately if we sneeze wrong the models get real upset and shift the snow to north.

      • prelude says:

        I feel better now. Thank You

        • Cosmokramer says:

          Welcome to KY weather. Lol

        • Todd says:

          Unless you are a true winter weather fan some people think we are freeks or childish, no it’s just their are some us that are pationate about it and it is painful to see areas close to us get snow and we don’t, our window in KY is short, a couple months a year, so it is frustrating to have near misses so often! Maybe tonight breaks the old mold?????

  27. Cosmokramer says:

    “Models are busting too warm”

    Dome 3, us 0

    • Aaron C. says:

      The models need a runway, so we can watch them wobble and fall on their knees like that one model did three times. Then we can sit back and have a gut-busting laugh at their failed catwalks.

    • swva_fan says:

      I think you guys are misreading. He’s saying the models have projected the temps warmer than they actually are now. The current temps are colder than what they had forecasted. That might or may not help up snow chances, remains to be seen.

      • Rachel says:

        Thank you. Yes — the forecast for today was in the low 40’s… it’s only in the mid 30’s, I think CB is saying that the models are “way too warm”, meaning it’s not getting nearly as warm as they’re saying it should. This would be better for snow chances.

  28. Cosmokramer says:

    Temp here in Morgan County is 41 degrees and steady. In the past it usually results in a cold rain and a few wet flakes flying at the end in the am…pretty to look at, but no accumulation.

  29. Tom in KY says:

    My temp has risen 5 degrees the last few hours according to KY mesonet

  30. JJ in Pikeville says:

    Any possible accumulation in Pikeville from upslope snow?

  31. Aaron C. says:

    Double blow of misery tonight. Cats lose AND central KY gets no snow. Telling ya folks, you stop watching the weather, watch every mets rating fall through the floor—we might get some snow. Until then, it’s more waiting games and heartache. Not to hate on Chris, really—-it isn’t about him per se….it’s about the weather in general.

  32. Chris Mercer says:

    Some late afternoon sunshine (not full but certainly brighter) has boosted the temp in Lawrenceburg to 37. This looks to be a marginal advisory event for all but the Ohio River counties.

    I think we will see and inch or two tonight in Anderson County and along the 64-corridor and perhaps a dusting to 1/2 inch with the snow showers tomorrow. Eastern/SE Kentucky ought to do better with that for tomorrow.

    I’m just excited to see some snow/cold. Many of the other 10 warmest December’s didn’t feature that.

    If the temp goes below 13 in the next week or so it will be the coldest temp I’ve had here since February of 2011.

  33. BlueJacket says:

    Nicholas Co. is one of the smallest counties in KY but seems like CB’s lines always cut through it! Sorry, had to share that, find it funny. We are also on the border of 3 NWSs (Louisville, Jackson, and Wilmington)… Part of the Louisville NWS area.

  34. LD says:

    If I remember correctly, Wxman said a week ago that the GFS had this event as too warm to snow, therefore zero chance of it happening (paraphrasing). I may have lost count, but thus far it seems like the GFS has the best track record of model prediction vs. actual results so far this winter. Is this the correct interpretation or does it just seem that way?

  35. Juno99 says:

    HPC still keeps moderate chance for 4+ Louisville on north

  36. Aaron Carrington says:

    Ya know…with the Cats winning the title last year you would think that snow would follow suit. If you remember the last decent snowfall we had was In ’98. Technically, it happened the January before the title, but c’mon throw me a bone!

  37. WXman says:

    18z NAM still looks great for areas north of I64. Southern IN is going to get bombed.

  38. Todd says:

    The radar to the south west does not look very impressive to me, dry slot already coming into west Tenn??

  39. NKYgal says:

    NWS in Louisville has issued WSW for areas along the river….

  40. TeacherTim says:

    Really disappointed about our chance for snow in southern Lincoln county. I moved here from the Eastern Kentucky mountains, where I lived for a couple years. Snow seemed to fall quite a bit there. Before that I grew up and lived in North Central Ohio where snow was common. What on earth was I thinking moving here. I guess I will just have to visit Ohio more often to see real snow.

  41. Braden Petry says:

    Do you guys think Mason WV will be on an advisory ?

  42. Andrew says:

    Winter Storm Warning now for Trimble County

  43. EastKyTeacher says:

    A coating? I was in the 1-2 inch snow line last time and got a heavy frost look on the rooftops. Since my area is in for a coating at best, there’s no need to pull out the sled. Throwing in the towel on this one…too!

  44. Cosmokramer says:

    I posted long ago that the temp in Morgan County was 41. It is still 41 at 4:00pm…..cloudy skies have dominated most of the day. If IOU look at the snow map for tonight and those in the past, 75% of the time (estimate), Morgan County will be split by snow calls. This time we are sandwiched between 2 snow calls…amazing or geography?

  45. Mike S says:

    HRRR model 18z run shows 2-3″ for Louisville by 5:00am Saturday.

  46. Woodsman says:

    Way Way too low for Wv accumlations.

  47. Joey Wilson says:

    Yet another tricky call for much of KY. Forecast for 2-3″ in Owensboro but current temp is 39, and I’m “worried” best precip will be gone before surface temps are favorable for snow. Hope I’m wrong.

  48. Todd says:

    Snow in love with southern Indiana, two storm totals could be aound 15 or more inches for some spots, Most of Ky would like to see 2 or 3 inches!

  49. WXman says:

    35.9F in Lawrenceburg. 4 more degrees and we’re in business here.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      I’ll agree with the temp and say even three more degrees and we are in major business. Ground is cold and it will be night when snow is falling. With sunrise not until close to 0800 we have plenty of time to put some snow on the ground!

  50. Portland Weather Lover says:

    I live in the Portland area of Louisville, which is right on the river. It is 38, been holding steady since this morning. Been cloudy and a little light breeze all day. Come on Smow, shift a tad bit further south, I want the big snow

  51. Pat says:

    1st, I can’t believe that a forecast for 6 inches of snow deserves a warning. I’m 54 and counting and remember well the winters of 77 and 78 here in Lexington. Those deserve a warning. Now as far as tonight and early tomorrow, the birds started roosting early this morning, my knees and shoulder are huring like heck. I know I’m getting to be an old man, but I trust nature more that computor models. Nature can and will tell you when things are going to happen. I look for 4 inches in Lexington, maybe a little more or a little less. Chris pointed out that the temps didn’t reach what the models said it would, that did not mean he was calling off for snow totals, it’s the exact opposite. I use to run Winn Dixie stores and it always amazed me that people would come in and by 4 gallons of milk, 4 or 5 loaves of bread and basically nothing else. Now why in the heck do you need 4 gallons of milk and that much bread to make it for 2 days max. But what the heck, I got money everytime the register rang up an item. It really ticked me off when people would try and bring the milk and bread back for a refund when the roads were clear a day or two later.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      Bringing milk and bread back for a refund?! Hope you’re kidding!

      • Pat says:

        Joey, I am not kidding about that. You would not believe the people who raised hell with me and other people who ran grocery stores like it was our fault that the warning didn’t pan out. Once again, back in my earlier days we didn’t have the weather people on the TV for 24 hours teling us this storm is going to hit here or there. Weahter is not an exact science, it’s going to do whatever it wants to do. So if you all want to watch what someone thinks is going to happen for hours on TV go ahead and do it. No matter what the Mets think, it is not set in stone. I really love Chris’s site and will always look for what he has to say, but I am not going to put money down on any of the forecast, because that is what they are, a forecast which is still not set in stone.

    • Lincoln says:

      6 inches of snow will throw traffic off, and cause hazardous road conditions. A lot of the time when we get a major storm, it hasn’t exactly been expected I.e. 1998. 6 inches is a nice amount of snow and more than we have seen in awhile.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Pat–check the records and see how many storms have actually dumped six inches in Lexington. Maybe 40 since the 1870’s? That’s 140 years. So one every three to four years on average. Yeah–six inches deserves a warning!

    • Rachel says:

      Considering how people drive in this state when there’s no snow at all on the ground… I think any chance of snow at all, even a dusting is reason for “warning”. The other day when we literally got “a dusting” here in Lexington, there were wrecks all over the place. I don’t think a warning means “run to the store and stockpile the bread and milk” anymore. Heck stores will be open regardless and most of us have stores within walking distance if we got that desperate. I think they just want people to be aware of the weather if they’ll be out on the roads.

  52. Cosmokramer says:

    Sure they will bring it back. You’re lucky if the milk was still full and the bread was all there! Lol

    I keep seeing “winter storm” in KY. talked about…..isn’t that a perfect example of an oxymoron? Lol

    • Rachel says:

      Oh… we have tons of “winter storms”… they just usually amount to approximately 2 inches of rain follwed up by the temperature FINALLY dropping low enough at the very end to squeak in that less than an inch of snow. Ugh.

  53. Jim says:

    Snow/Sleet in Middlesboro.

  54. tommy says:

    watching this one from a distance guys! looks like southern indiana and northern KY area are favored areas this time around!

    • Neil says:

      And pretty much every other time, too. Just got back from Southern Indiana where they’ve got a foot of snow on the ground already from the last storm. Be nice if they could share some the snow love with us in CKY!

  55. TONEY says:

    talking about a busted forecast, i live in wayne, wva just south of huntington, wva and our local forecast from the nws in charleston, wva is saying……rain…..mainly after midnight with lows in the mid 30s and the temp is at 37 now…….a chance of rain and snow showers on saturday with little or no accumalations with highs remaining steady in the mid 30s…….either they r going to bust the forecast or the gfs and the nam models are way off…….even chris has the 2 to 4 inches and the 1 to 2 inches running close to interstate 64….2 to 4 inches would be to the north of i-64 and 1 to 2 would be south of i-64.

    if any one would care to comment on this and give me some better expert opinions or facts it would be greatly appreciated.

  56. Tom in Rockcastle says:

    Sleeting here in Rockcastle, im sure it will go to all rain, but interesting

  57. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Sleet beginning in London

  58. Emc says:

    Plain rain in shepherdsville bullitt county

  59. Lincoln says:

    Dry in southern Lexington.. By the way to anyone who didn’t know if you click my name you will see where I post my thoughts as well. Good luck to everyone who wants snow tonight, I wish I could say you didn’t need it. But in Kentucky you never know!

  60. rolo says:

    i Mean WKYT is in a SEVERE WEATHER DAY again, REALLY>> u ALL have a HEART ATTACK when wer get a asctually SEVERE WINTER S.

    I am amazed how some try to build up a inches or 2 of snow. just cause there Idiots that cant drive and wreck doesnt call for a SEVERE WEATHER ALERT DAY.

    cmon BRIAN COLLINS rolling over in his grave.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Rolo–I have to disagree with you here. WKYT is a station based out of Lexington. Within 45 miles of Lexington there will be significant snow. Not all the state is confined to the SE Corner. If it was, you would have reason to complain.

      • Lincoln says:

        I agree Chris, considering that most of the states population is concentrated between the three major cities/areas. Lexington,Louisville, Cincinnati. WKYT gets pretty close to Louisville and Cincinnati. So it does make since.

    • Andy Rose says:

      I actually agree with Rolo the snow that is forecasted is not severe IMO but we don’t make the rules. It is annoying thinking that something major is going to happen and its not

  61. Chris Mercer says:

    And wasn’t Brian the famous “just a dusting” met back in 1998? πŸ™‚

    • Aaron C. says:

      No sir. Not when I was watching the news that night. Mr. Tom. Sater was the one who said “Fayette county WILL have school tomorrow.” They can dust off the old tapes and find that line VERBATIM or almost verbatim in that news’ nightcast.

      You can bank on that.

    • BubbaG says:

      Don’t know about TV, but on the radio it was the semi retired Fearless Frank Falkner. Just a dusting, just s dusting. I do believe that was his last ever forecast.

  62. Big Papa says:

    I’m thinking more snow will fall in the southeast than what is predicted. Temps were forecasted to get up to 47 degrees today and the high at my house was 38. It’s 36 right now. Unless the moisture brings higher temperatures with it I think most of it will fall as snow/sleet instead of all rain.

  63. Dale says:

    37.4 in southern Pike County.

  64. Go Cards says:

    This storm better start blowing up to the west or it will be a bust for everyone.

  65. Todd says:

    rain snow mix in Frankfort, temp 35

  66. Mark says:

    Large snowflakes in Louisville with a temp of 37 degrees. No rain…yet.

  67. Juno99 says:

    snow in louisville

  68. TONEY says:

    unless this storm starts to move due east from its current position areas north of the mighty ohio river is going to get hit hardest yet again…..everything seems to be moving ne and the backend is not filling in very well at all and at this rate most precip will be over by early morning, daybreak if not before…….maybe the mets know more than what this wannabe knows…….if any one wants to explain things better to me then by all means, you are more than welcome to…..that is how we learn things…..thanks and god bless.

  69. Mike S says:

    Experimenting with the HRRR model, lightning threat exists from Louisville west toward Evansville and western KY. Could enhance snow rates with 2+” per hour. A small chance but a chance nonetheless.

  70. Chris Mercer says:

    35 degrees with moderate and “Sneeting” in Lawrenceburg (my term for a snow/sleet/rain mix). Interesting to see what will happen before morning!

  71. Todd says:

    Mostly big wet snow flakes in Frankort, temp 34, I though it wasn’t going to change over until midnite? Come on down!

  72. kandy london says:

    OK weather MEN–question for you-if your wife was planning to leave london in the morning to go to cincinnati on a fun shopping trip would you say– A. Go ahead honey-youll be fine or B. you may as well set your rump down cause you aint got no business getting out at a time like this–please answer–thanks!

  73. Neil says:

    The dome appears to be holding up well, as the good stuff looks like its gonna miss us in CKY yet again…

  74. If I’m looking at the radar correctly, looks like another big dry slot headed straight for me. Someone tell me I’m wrong, Please!!

  75. bjenks says:

    Big donut hole getting ready to move into the Lou Area…This thing needs to push more east than it is moving or the main precip will be out of here before it does….Don’t see Lou area getting more than inch out this storm…

  76. MarkLex says:

    It’s snowing in northwest Lexington lightly – but if you look at the radar, it doesn’t look like it will last long! Unless filling in occurs which I have no way to know if that will happen. The temp on my indoor outdoor therm is about 5 degrees warm always from what the actual temp is. It’s been falling slowly for the past 3 hours.

  77. Micah says:

    Big snowflakes is Casey County! South central KY may get a surprise out of this!

  78. james says:

    Light snow in SE Lexington.

  79. james says:

    Hopefully Chris will update soon. We may be in for a good surprise with it being snow already.

  80. Todd says:

    Everyone keeps telling me this thing is going to develop phase/come together over ky, Ok we get the snow starting to fall early and now the next issue, will the moisture hold up??? Chris any thoughts on the ragged looking returns to the south west??

  81. Andrew says:

    Chris tweeted out pictures of snow really coming down at WKYT

  82. feederband says:

    I live near Iroquois Park and I don’t see any snow just sleet. I was hoping to hunt in the snow tomorrow. I’m still going but I love tracking in the snow. Anyway, donut hole calls for Krispy Kreme hot donuts. Sending the kids now.

  83. Ryan says:

    Its been snowing here in Shelby County for an hour now. Nothing is sticking yet though.

  84. DrummermanDan says:

    Big flakes and some light rain in Hamburg area of Lexington.

  85. Dale says:

    sleeting in southern Pike County, 37.2 degrees

  86. Aaron C. says:

    Rain, some snow in Richmond. Again, not enough to cause any accumulation. Going to have to get colder for that.

  87. Lyla says:

    Sleeting in northern Jefferson county!

  88. Todd says:

    33.4 and snowing in Frankfort, getting close to the magic 32, now lets fill in that donut hole on radar!

  89. Jenn says:

    big flakes in stamping ground

  90. Jen in Sadieville says:

    And yes, I was shouting!

  91. Aaron C. says:

    I’m starting to see bigger flakes falling in Richmond. That is a POSITIVE, right? I’m acknowledging it. πŸ™‚

    Remember, positive results net a positive reaction.

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