Tracking Some Weekend Flakes

Good Thursday to one and all. Our cold pattern continues across the bluegrass state with temps running several degrees below normal. While we have the cold, everyone is wanting more snow to go along with it. The best I can give you right now is a period of light snow and flurries this coming weekend. Hang tough… the pattern is ripe for some serious snow and cold for the middle and end of the month.

Today will feature a weak system working across the Ohio Valley. This doesn’t have any moisture to work with, but will bring some clouds back in here. Can someone see a snowflake? Maybe in the north. Temps will top out in the 30s.

The weekend will bring a disturbance into town and this will likely produce a few periods of light snow and flurries. The NAM and the GFS both show some light action…

NAM GFSThe upper air charts suggests those models are likely underdoing the amount of precipitation amounts. It’s very possible for many areas to pick up on light accumulations before the weekend is over.

Next week is going to be a big week of changes. Our temps are likely to warm toward 50 for a few days for the middle and end of the week. But, that won’t last very long at all as a supercharged wintry pattern takes shape by the following weekend. Check out what a dip in the jet stream showing up by then…

GFSThat setup is likely to deliver some serious cold and snow to our region and should bring the goods to much of the country.

If you want to see just how different the pattern is this winter compared to last winter. Check out the snow cover…

Snow Year

I will have another update later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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36 Responses to Tracking Some Weekend Flakes

  1. mikew says:

    Can anyone tell me about how many one foot plus snows eastern ky has had in the last 30 years?

  2. Char says:

    Thank you Chris.

  3. MarkLex says:

    At least we have some activity to look forward to down the road. I hate BORING weather this time of the year.

  4. Cosmokramer says:

    2nd verse….same as the first…..pretty bland stretch coming up huh?

    Forecasters can’t make it snow. If any could, it would be Chris.

  5. Joey Wilson says:

    This is what I love about Chris: Most forecasters are tooting the “big warm-up” next week, but Chris is looking ahead to the next cold (and snowy?) period! That’s what I’m talking about!!

    • BubbaG says:

      That pattern of contain only works if you actually got snow πŸ˜‰

      Once again it is a week out- in this case, about two weeks out. I works not have thought it, but seems the same shifting pattern as last winter.

      Yes, it is colder, but the snow at best is around for about 10% of each event. The other 90% is mix, cold rain and virga for southern fed systems for a lot or most of the state.

      We need the lakes to start freezing up in the north and get some clipper action. πŸ™‚

      • BubbaG says:

        convention, not contain. Meh.

      • BubbaG says:

        would, not works. Alright, I am done. Too many mistakes and not enough snow makes Bubba a dull boy.

      • LD says:

        “more snow”, that made me laugh while drinking my coffee. πŸ˜‰

        As much I hate yet receiving any measurable snowfall, I am at least grateful for a little bit more cold than last year at this point. The insect situation, due to the ridiculously warm winter last year, was a big problem. Hopefully, if the predicted period by Mr. Bailey of mid-Jan through Feb for winter will keep us on the cold side and the bugs at normal levels later on.

        • BubbaG says:

          Agreed. Based on results so far, “more snow” is a very relative and exclusive term to some parts of the state.

          That said, the models do once again show promise, but more like politicians as far a results πŸ˜‰ …… πŸ™

      • Jeff Hamlin says:

        I forecast more “I told everyone I was right” posts coming up soon. The 0z GFS even confirms it.

      • Mike says:

        TWAS – two week away storm… IWBIWISI

  6. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Have a great Thursday, everyone!

  7. Josh pozy says:

    Love the optimism for snow Chris. Thanks for the hard work.

    Re: our area. Are the days of big snows (6 inches or more) only for mountain areas from now on? It’s been years since we had anything like that.

  8. Chris Mercer says:

    Here are some fast stats for the past few winters (beginning December 1) through January 2nd. Let’s be objective. I’m only taking Lexington because of the time constraints, but it is in the Central part of the state, so that should help average out the records from the other parts of Kentucky.

    2012-2013. Average Temp: 41.1 Snowfall: 3.4
    2011-2012. Average Temp: 40.4 Snowfall: Trace
    2010-2011. Average Temp: 27.9 Snowfall 12.4
    2009-2010. Average Temp: 34.2 Snowfall: 2.2
    2008-2009 Average Temp: 35.7

    There are a couple of things that stand out to me. First, 2010-2011 was an abnormal winter is terms of cold and snow, at least in the sense of starting of fast.

    • Chris Mercer says:

      Forgot to post the snow in 2008-2009. It was 2.7 inches. Secondly, it appears an “average” winter around here at least over the past several years, to this point, would have about 3 or 4 inches of snow and a temp somewhere in the Mid 30’s. Yes, our temps have been warmer than that, but the snow has been about average.

  9. Bernard P. Fife says:

    In the Monticello area I don’t think we’ve been below 20 degrees all season which is very rare. If we go mild through the middle of the month, we may not hit the teens until late January which is unheard of.

  10. Rick in Columbus says:

    Do you think the warm up next week is the January Thaw?

  11. Andy Rose says:

    We have had more sun today than yesterday in Knox county

  12. Chris Mercer says:

    Meanwhile–a Winter Storm Warning “down in the West Texas town of El Paso” for 2-3 inches of snow. My friends in Richmond would say this is a big storm πŸ™‚

  13. Todd says:

    17.5 In east Frankfort this morning, coldest so far this early winter, a few days in the 50’s next week might be a nice break then bring-it, SNOW!

  14. Bobby A says:

    Anything showing up on the new models?

  15. Mark says:

    Even WFO Nashville is now forecasting a rain/snow mix for Sat, so this might up the chances a bit for snow in KY.

    Meanwhile, today is anniversary of the 2000 tornado – an F3 – striking Owensboro. A few days from now will mark the date of an 1890 (yes 1890) outbreak that included an F4 in far western KY, one of the rare times an F3 plus tornado has hit KY in January. This all a reminder that winter tornadoes, as infrequent as they may be, can be a bigger threat than summer twisters.

    • Bernard P. Fife says:

      With temps expected to rise next week are there any chances of a severe outbreak looming?

      • Mark says:

        Can’t rule it out, but Storm Prediction Center currently shows nothing really sticking out severe wise. However, SPC indicates things are too unpredictable at this time; it’s very early, the models are going have to work out their differences.

        Even if I wasn’t still busy at work, my neophyte abilities with the models should be taken with grain of salt. This said, a system the middle of next week could give us some shot of t-showers middle of next week. After this, as CB touched on, the jet stream may be in much better position to unleash big rounds of snow/cold.

  16. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Just drove through Clay and Laurel Counties, where they were pre-treating the roads with the brine salt solution. Why? Getting ready for a chance of Saturday snow this early?

  17. Shawn-KG4KBU says:

    Check out this weather blog of the snow in El Paso Texas

    I hope this comes here soon

  18. Todd says:

    I know their is a lot of snow pack across the US right now but the warmup on the way next week that will probably push it well to the north again, hopefully mid to late January brings it south again??

  19. JJTeach says:

    Is that snowstorm over west Texas the one that’s supposed to deliver us our light snow chance for this weekend???

  20. MarkLex says:

    I remember growing up in the 80s watching the weather channel and on their US maps where they would show watches and warnings, I remember seeing one of them being a “travelers advisory”……..I had forgotten that term because I haven’t heard it in so long (until recently) I’ve been reading on the NWS discussions that they will issue a travelers advisory.

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