Wednesday Evening Update

Good Evening, gang. Our extreme pattern is just getting underway across the bluegrass state. This includes near record warmth, thunderstorms, possible high water, cold, arctic cold and snow. Never a dull moment around here.

The first area of low pressure will work across the Mississippi Valley Thursday and Friday and will bring showers and scattered storms to the state. Thursday’s temp map will show a big gradient from north to south, but the warm air will win the battle.

Highs Friday will hit the low and mid 60s after scattered storms end. Saturday will see mid and upper 60s with a 70 degree reading possible. That’s when the next storm moves in by Sunday with showers and storms increasing. That will pull a slow moving cold front into the state and this allows for a heavy rain corridor to set up from southwest to northeast…

GFS Rain

The next wave of low pressure is trending colder on the models for Monday night through early Wednesday. That may up the chances for some wintry stuff during this time. The GFS Ensembles continue to advertise this…

GFS

Those same Ensembles show another storm throwing snow our way toward the end of next week…GFS 2The GFS Ensembles are showing what the pattern has been suggesting for a while, now. The operational model runs of the GFS and European are flopping more than a fish out of water. Forecast the pattern and worry about the details later.

Have a great evening and take care.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

34 Responses to Wednesday Evening Update

  1. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Had to laugh when I read this mornings post. Your words were “a few scattered showers today” and it started raining here about 7:15 and rained for a good part of the day. Temps were mid 50s, but the rain was cold! Looks like the roller coaster is neatly at the top of the first hill! Hope it’s a good ride!

  2. MikeM says:

    Me too! :)

  3. BubbaG says:

    It would be nice to know CB’s percentage feelings on the precipitation for the cold transition. The big question is will this event follow the usual 90% rain and 10% frozen stuff, or more frozen stuff.

    Still seems whoever is on the fence for the system could see ice. Depending on the temperatures and warm aloft air, it could be ice on the north side and rain on the south, or snow on the north and ice on the south…. That would be us again… Boo! ;)

    Or ice for both sides of the fence??? Du, du, du, duuuuu!

    • MikeM says:

      Unless black magic intervenes the rain will be gone when the cold arrives. ;)

      • Mark says:

        Speaking of Black Magic, an episode by same name was on 70s Bionic Woman show (even though I was born during the 80s, I watched many old tv show reruns during the 90s). Besides of course Lindsay Wagner, this episode had several great old-school guest stars like Vincent Price and Abe Vigoda. Hmm, perhaps if we all watch this episode and do a nice seance we will finally get real winter weather ;) .

  4. JJTeach says:

    Looks like one heck of a weather ride over the next week Chris.
    Sure hope we can put some more snow back on the ground before next week is over!

  5. Ben C says:

    I am ready for some Old School snow and cold. Snow drifts to the barn tops. Thanks CB! I will be hooking up to sleigh to the horses soon and stocking up on groceries.

    • mikew says:

      I really like this blog i just wish there were more updates can anybody on here give me there own eastern ky outlook over the next couple of weeks.i guess when a forcast area is as large as an entire state theres bound to be a few disapointed people.complaint from the dome!

  6. Ben C says:

    Well Bubba, if it gets as cold as CB has been saying,then eventually we will all see a lot if snow this winter

    • BubbaG says:

      IF the moisture is there at the same time ;)

      • KellyinLouisville says:

        It will be interesting to see how next week plays out. As of now, the Louisville mets, NWS and WC aren’t biting on the cold…40′s for highs and upper 20′s/low 30′s for lows, just seasonal chill. Based on the way this winter has gone, I’ll go with the warmer forecast but happy to be wrong. For now, muddy is the pattern at my house.

        • Joey Wilson says:

          TV and NWS mets typically play it safe and don’t forecast extremes until it’s very obvious. That’s what we love about Chris…he goes out on a limb sometimes and sometimes it’ll bust, but it’s “boring” warm winter periods like this when Chris is looking out to see cold/snow that we enjoy!

          • BubbaG says:

            The trend this winter has so far proven the safe route so far has been the best.

            • Kelly in Louisville says:

              They’ve been pretty spot on for Louisville pretty much the last two months and with the wet and muddy pattern holding tough, I see no reason to doubt them. As always, happy to be wrong, I’d love to see some serious snow but nothing that has happened so far or that is showing up leads me to believe that will happen.

              The fact that we are talking about several record high temps being tied or broken in the next few days is pretty telling. I can’t remember the last time we had a record cold temperature in the winter and I’m pretty sure we won’t see any happen this winter.

              • Kelly in Louisville says:

                Of course, it isn’t just us dealing with a weak winter…Anchorage, Alaska has several days with rain in the next week, something that NEVER used to happen there in winter.

                • Mark says:

                  While I’m biased for warmer weather, at least some parts of world are presently getting real cold, such as Russia, India. It’s reported that China is having their coldest winter in about three decades.

                  For much of last Nov and Dec, Alaska and Canada were having severe cold and snow, even by their standards. But as of late, Anchorage (and Fairbanks) are indeed doing a roller coaster between normal and above normal temps.

              • BubbaG says:

                Fair observation and a directional point that is accurate. The trend ain’t on the cold side for the past two winters and will take a serious cold snap to alter the trend, yet alone dwell on snow chances.

                Next week is the watershed moment (pun intended). If we get the same rinse and repeat event- bring on spring, since the “next week” trend has kept rolling.

                • Kelly in Louisville says:

                  I’m with you, I’m giving it another week or two and then bring on spring weather. I hope Chris is right, I really would love to see a nice snowstorm, but the trend is the trend and well, it’s been tough to break it. Time will tell. Have a great night everyone!

  7. I wish it would snow. Not because I like snow, but just because it would shut some people up. I swear if Chris said the sky was blue, some would say it wasn’t blue enough or the wrong shade.

    • BubbaG says:

      Actual results trump a rosy outlook every time ;)

      Not a ding on CB, but is on the funky bad trend and the semi-delusional models and their “next week” outlooks.

      If it was not for CB’s blog, winter would really really suck. CB rocks, but unfortunately for a long time, winter has not.

  8. Chris Mercer says:

    Today’s average temp in Lexington was +15 compared to normal (48 against 33). This winter is now running warmer than last winter was up to this point. Now, we never even saw a week of sustained cold last winter. This winter has been slightly snowier, but our biggest snow last year came in Met. Spring (March). Will this winter make it the first time since 1948-1949 and 1949-1950 we had this kind of warmth two winters’ in a row. If so, is warm the new winter trend here?

    • BubbaG says:

      It will be quite a few more years to derive that. Not to get deep and cheesy, but human perspective on time is too finite in relation to actual weather through time.

      That said, as far as us humans are concerned, if this winter gets beat again by warm air and next winter too, seems a trend to me. Also time for mets to start validating models in their use for outlooking and even forecasting snow. The “next week” perpetual outlooks have a batting average an American League pitcher could beat.

      Regardless, I hope we get a trend buster to bust the funk and give CB a nice event to post about :)

  9. KeavyMan says:

    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

    .DAY ONE…TONIGHT.

    AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL EFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING DROPPING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE IN PLACES.

    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

    GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT.
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
    REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS LIKELY THE RAIN WILL LEAD TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS…WITH A FEW POINTS POSSIBLY REACHING FLOOD STAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
    SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX WITH RAIN IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 MONDAY NIGHT.

  10. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    36.9 deg and very foggy here at my farm tonight!!!!!

  11. Virgil Edwards says:

    Can Chris post one single update without having armchair QB’s chiming in about their distain for the forecasting? Is it possible for this weather blog to actually be a weather blog instead of the Im better than you mentallities showing up? It would be nice for a change if people actually respected Chris’s efforts and his website.

  12. TONEY says:

    good late evening from the town of wayne, wva at 11:55pm on thiswed. night. sorry for the late comment but been pretty busy this evening. currently the temp is 40 degrees under a pretty thick blanket of fog in the tri-state. we had about a tenth of an inch of cold rain in the ole rain gauge this morning into the afternoon…here is hoping that most of the heavy rain satys west of wayne such as ky, ohio or where ever….not wanting anyone to get flooded out and the local mets are calling for 1 to 3 inches of rain from sunday into tuesday which wouldn’t cause major flooding but it would cause rises on area streams…….better yet, let us all hope that the gfs and other models are over estimating the raain threat for next week…..look forward to chris’s late night update to get his professional take on every thing in the world of weather…….thanks for reading and may god bless.

  13. chris g in clay county says:

    been listening to scanner and ive heard ems and sheriff dept talking about very very heavy fog in clay county area last few hours or so. thought id report that back in .

    hope the models have overestimated the rainfall totals for our area , but really we are due a decent flooding event, not that im looking for one. 1947, 1957 and 1984 all saw big floods here in clay county, dont know if ive seen one like that one in 84 since. seems as tho they was one in the early 90s that was bad, but not near what the may 6 1984 flooding / severe weather outbreak was here in manchester.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>