Tracking Another Clipper

Good Monday everyone and thanks for all your reports over the past several days. The weather has been nothing short of wild for the past few weeks, but looks to calm down a bit this week. We do have one more clipper to track across the region later today into tonight. This one looks to deliver different results than the ones from the weekend.

This clipper is a bit farther north and will bring mainly light snow across northern Kentucky and some cold rain across the south. A transition zone will set up somewhere in between, but where that sets up won’t be known until the clipper works in.

You can see the more northward track on the GFS Snowfall map…

GFS 2

A reinforcing shot of cold will funnel in behind the clipper for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will generally run in the 30s.

Thursday will see slightly milder air working in with temps rebounding into the 40s. Clouds will quickly increase ahead of the next system arriving by Thursday night and Friday. That looks like a cold rain maker for us…

GFS

Temps Friday will may come back down into the 30s. A few model runs of late have suggested this storm could tap cold enough air to produce some flakes. We shall see.

Mild air will then surge in for the upcoming weekend. Temps will be well into the 40s Saturday and 50s by Sunday as showers and possible thunder pushes in. That’s ahead of a plains storm system that slowly heads our way into early next week. The trend on this setup looks fairly wet and not as mild as it once did. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a cold front stall on top of us with waves of low pressure developing along it. That could be a heavy rain maker.

All indications are for another super wintry setup coming later next week and carrying us through the rest of the month. How about this… I don’t think we’ve seen our biggest snowfall of the winter, yet. I’m about to the time of year I stop really liking snow, so I’m torn on whether or not to be happy about this pattern.

Make it a great Monday and take care.


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63 Responses to Tracking Another Clipper

  1. Virgil says:

    Give in to the spring Chris…Old man winter has failed you once again..Reds Reds Reds…

    • WXEMGUY says:

      Not sure what you are talking about Virgil…unless you are in one of the climotological areas that never really gets as much snow as other parts of the state anyway (and for that, my condolences for your lack of snow). For one thing, Chris has been doing pretty good with his forecasts…and second, places like Lexington are now ABOVE the annual average for snow up to this date…and third, as a meteorologist myself, I agree with Chris on the upcomming cool down in another 7-10 days. It’s a good call when blending the models, and the overall pattern recognition of this winter. There will be another warmup…followed by the return of broad troughiness, cold, and accompanied weather over the eastern 2/3 of the country. The Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow…but it’s only because he looked in the wrong direction…

      • LD says:

        Do you consider a forecast successful if the predicted results hold true for a minority rather than a majority of the area you cover? I’m curious what the rule of thumb is for the meteorological profession when it comes to internal perception. For anyone with a strong work ethic, it would seem like the bar would be set pretty high to feel a sense of accomplishment, since so many things have the potential to go awry.

      • BubbaG says:

        There are quite a lot of those areas, so relative point. Richmond and areas around it south of the river have barely got to 2″ so far this winter and a lot not even that.

        I notice a lot of posters base their perspective apparently on their back yards. A large part of the state has so far had a wimpy winter like last year- in spite of all the great chances.

        In summary, a lot of us missed most of the snow and are back into next-week mode. From a LOT of OUR back yards, the feeling is meh. In his defense CB can not fix the “mehs”, only actual snow fall beyond a trace and a few inches can.

        One more time: An actual result trumps an outlook and forecast EVERY time. Just so happens been a long span of wimpy of a lot of folks, so the perspective depends on your own back yard.

        • BubbaG says:

          As far as back yards, a LOT of us including north Richmond got 1.5″ or less from the last three mini clippers. Not even the low end of the map, which I thought was a shoe-in for being correct for the state. Seemed no way it would miss. Uncanny.

          • Coffeelady says:

            BubbaG, my hubby went to Lexington Saturday to do some work. He said that it snowed on him hard on the way home until he hit the KY river. Then, it was like the spigot was tuned off. I thought of you when he told me that. As for us, we got a very hard snow squall yesterday AM for about 45 minutes. Ground was white, silver dollar flakes….when it stopped snowing, it was gone in a few minutes. I feel your pain, my friend. ;)

  2. chris g in clay county says:

    thanks chris for the update and giving us your thoughts.

  3. Andy Rose says:

    actually Mr Bailey thats what happened today we got light rain.

  4. Susan says:

    Thanks For the update!! Actually, we received snow today where I lived and not rain :)

  5. Andy Rose says:

    So another super wintry period = more flooding rains followed by lows in the lower teens with flurries?

  6. Lori Hannon-Theaker says:

    Another pitiful snowy winter for central KY.
    Sure hope you are right and we have one more shot for a decent snow maker before the end of the month.
    Bet you can’t tell I’m from the north?!
    Thanks for all that you do, Chris!

  7. LD says:

    After that initial 30 minute burst of snow from the squall line Thursday night, we got but nothing but a few flurries from the rest of the weekend. In all, 1.25″ for the entire event period in Berea, 85% of which melted during the balmy 19 degree day on Friday due to direct sunlight. That squall did make it interesting for a bit. It was nice to be excited about winter for a change, very nostalgic. :-)

    In the winter outlook, Mr. Bailey did say the bulk of the snow would arrive in the window of mid-January through February. Despite only a single precipitation event panning out thus far this season for Berea (last Thursday night), I’d say the winter can’t be written off entirely until this month has come to an end. Let’s hope the last three weeks pan out as expected.

    I never can get channel 27 to come in on digital (even with an additional antennae) but once the pre-game for the Superbowl started, it came in just fine last night. Oddly, I’m back to the usual no reception again this morning. I wish the signal had went out before I had to watch the ridiculousness of that Ravens punter intentionally running around the end zone to kill off the clock. Some will call it a smart play, and it was an evil genius moment, but it was also craven and unwelcome for such a stage as the Superbowl.

  8. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. A few days break will be nice. But the cold weather has been good for keeping the bug population in check, hopefully. I hope you are correct about not having seen the biggest snow yet. We have had about a half inch total so far this winter. Would love to see a good one hit everybody. But , we will see. Have a GREAT Monday everyone, and thanks again, Chris for all you do.

  9. Willie says:

    Just curious if areas of North Central Kentucky like Paris or Cynthiana could pick up any accumulation tonight? I know you said there will be a transition zone but I’m not real sure what that means. Any input is appreciated guys. Thanks!

  10. Willie says:

    Just curious if areas of North Central Kentucky like Paris or Cynthiana could pick up any accumulation tonight? I know you said there will be a transition zone but I’m not real sure what that means. Any input is appreciated guys. Thanks!

  11. Paul says:

    I’m like you Chris. In Woodford and Scott, we have had a decent covering that has stuck around for a few days. We’ve had a couple snow days, so I feel like my winter is complete. I’m OK with one more snow, but if it stays in liquid form, that will be fine, too. One thing is for sure, this must be one of the trickiest places to predict weather. Those temperature lines can be so close together that 10 miles can mean the difference between snow and rain. And for everyone that wants to critique accuracy, please remember that Chris doesn’t have to do this blog. He does it as a service to his community and is always realistic and transparent about his long term forecasting. If you are not happy, don’t visit!

  12. which way is the wind blowing says:

    I hope every body enjoy the mighty clipper systems. It is shame that these system are all we have to look forward to as far as snow chances.

  13. Todd says:

    as someone has stated on here before, this is ky not Minnesota or Michigan, large snows are RARE, the stats don’t lie, to many people got spoiled in the 90′s.

    Big snows in my life time that I can remember in Frankfort area

    78, 94, 96, 98
    (That is 35 years folks, 4 big storms)

    Other storms that missed Frankfort area

    2004 was mostly western ky blizzard
    1987 and 1993 was mostly eastern ky blizzard

    It is always about location in this state, statewide blizzards are extremely rare!

    • Andy Rose says:

      Nobody is demanding or expecting large snows they are asking for anything more than a coating but that seems hard to come by for some folks

      • Todd says:

        I agree with that, but some folks not All seem to think that snows, say larger than 10 inches use to be the norm around here every winter, well not in the last 50 years? Ncentral ky has been in a better spot this year, but their always seems to a area every year that gets more snow than others!

        I remember some very mild winters in the 70s before they turned bad in the late 70s.

  14. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Thanks Chris! We enjoyed the snow over the weekend, and it will be nice to wear fewer layers this week….ALTHOUGH we are always ready for a “big” snow, ya know, 4 inches or much more, if that is possible any more. Have a great day everyone!

  15. MikeM says:

    Versailles is sitting on 4.5 inches so far this winter. No way we are above average for the year to date with 16-17inches being the annual average and we are only 10 miles west of the airport. ( official measuring station for lex). Wxemguy must be getting his totals from the guy in Lexington who got 7 inches this past weekend.

    And Chris, you can’t be tired of snow yet because we haven’t had that much.

    Side note to Rolo. Give up gambling and weather forecasting. Sorry to say but you stink at both. ;)

    • Todd says:

      I live about 15 miles from Versailles here in east Frankfort and have measured about 9.5 inches so far this winter, I know it may not be official weather station but it is pretty accurate!

      2004 December storm Shelby county 20 miles west of Frankfort got 10 inches of snow in places and we had 1 in.

    • Lincoln says:

      Lexington and Frankfort are on pace to be above average. Fun fact for everyone..From 1981-2010, the average days it snowed more than 1 inch in Lexington was about 4 days a year. This is per the NWS.

      • BubbaG says:

        Looks like if CB adjusts his maps and just lops us south of the river by at least 50% of whatever he thinks and he will be good from now on. Seems set in stone now for any event above 2″.

        The forecasts have been pretty darn good for folks above the river and to the east. Not so much for us and that is being diplomatic about it.

    • Mike says:

      That double the total for my part of Richmond!

    • Ben in Lexington says:

      I did not say 7″ this weekend. It was including left over snow from Thursday night. That was what was a total on ground from Thursday and all weekend.

    • Ben in Lexington says:

      By the way,13 inches is normal.

  16. sue(Flatwoods,KY) says:

    Radar shows snow over my area but nothing is falling!

  17. Todd says:

    The snow is melting in Frankfort with on and off sun and temps in the low 40′s, the rain may finish it off later?
    Looks like the pattern will now warmup for a while and hopefully reload for one more good bout of winter!
    I still think people south of the river will get a nice snow before spring comes to stay!

  18. WendyT says:

    That rain can stay away as far as I’m concerned.

    It was nice to have on and off flurries all weekend. It never amounted to much at my place, but it was pretty.

  19. Todd says:

    looks like a rain/snow mix coming into Frankfort this evening, low temps overnite upper 20s, could get a little slick in spots later on?

  20. BubbaG says:

    I do believe it got “warmer than expected” today. The warm air taketh and the warm air keepeth away. Notice I did not say giveth. I know some of you folks in the higher demographics got snow though. Us common folks below the river got just about nothing.

    Considering the temps today, just as well. Slushy mess avoided! The little amount we had evapormelted. I made that word up too :)

  21. Todd says:

    The evil ugly rain has washed away all but the driveway and parking lot piles of snow here in Franfort, It will be Interesting to see if winter delivers anything else this year, meaning snow chances?

  22. Joey Wilson says:

    Ugh, I hate temps in the 50s in winter. Wake me up when there’s another shot at a snow storm.

  23. Bobt says:

    I know accuweather is far from accurate, but I hope they are right this time. Only forecasting two days in the 40′s for highs and that carries us almost to the end of the month. Everything else 50′s and 60′s. With less than an inch on snow for the entire winter (Knox Co.) I am ready for the cold rains to end and some decent weather to get here. Average highs are in the 50′s by mid-February and I’m really looking forward to it. I know that we still have some cold left, but I’m ready to start moving on toward spring temps.

  24. james says:

    I would like one big old school snow storm before Feb. is over, be cold enough for it to stick around for about a week, then turn spring.

  25. vinny says:

    Please stop wishing for Snow & Cold…!!!
    It’s grillin’ time, Reds gonna’ roll and me and my wife are headed to Hawaii in May…

    Bring on SPRING…!

  26. BubbaG says:

    Like last winter, this winter is Meh.

    Kudos to CB spicing up Meh.

    Instead of “the end” for winter, it is “the meh”.

    Boo!

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