The Active Pattern Rolls On

Happy Wednesday, everyone. Our weather pattern has been a little bumpy of late and it looks like that may ramp up a notch or two over the next few weeks. This is a pattern loaded with big time storm systems working across the country as cold shots continue to show up. This may take us well into March and all of this increases the chances of something major forming.

Let’s start with where we are today and that’s cold. High temps will run in the low and mid 30s for many as sunny skies rule the roost.

Our attention then turns to a developing winter storm across the plains states. This bad boy will throw some moisture our way late Thursday into Thursday evening. That means a wintry mix of precipitation will overspread the state from west to east. That looks to be on the light side and will make the transition to rain as milder air moves in by Friday morning…

GFS

Temps Friday will surge into the upper 40s and may hit the low 50s for a few areas as winds gust up.

A secondary low pressure will develop just to our east by Saturday. That storm will deepen as it heads up the east coast and that should tug down some colder air for the weekend. It may also throw enough moisture our way for a chilly shower or two.

The next storm rolls into the plains states by Monday. This looks to be a potent storm and will cause our winds and temps to increase as it works our way. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this system. It will then wrap up across the Ohio Valley and pull much colder air in here by Monday night and Tuesday. This could be a setup that takes us from thunder to snowflakes in a matter of hours…

GFS

GFS

 European

Euro

Winds are going to be a big time player with that storm.

The European Model has been going wild with my major storm idea. It seems to be targeting the middle and end of next week…

Euro 2The pattern is ripe for some wild weather around here into the middle of March.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.


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35 Responses to The Active Pattern Rolls On

  1. spencerlady says:

    No rest for the weary….especially weary of the winter trend that is. Ready for spring!!

  2. bjenks says:

    MEH!!!!!…….

  3. Bobt says:

    Was hoping for some good news today and was greeted with talk that the misery will continue until mid-March? The land of in between can’t even warm up for spring. Looks like continued cold rains hanging tough.

  4. Joey Wilson says:

    The track of that mid-week (“next week”) storm looks good for winter fans, but I’m sure it will eventually go too far south or too far north. :(

  5. LD says:

    As someone who just got their tax refund check…

    http://i.qkme.me/3t2fhe.jpg

  6. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris for all you do. I am officially done with this winter…I am now in spring/summer mode. Will not think snow anymore and all my positive thinking is over. I took down my LET IT SNOW door tag and actually threw it into the garbage. I did not think it could get worse than last winter and then this. Always next week :) that turns into :{ At least this season the chances where there only to end up as cold rain or cold and dry.
    MEH! MEH! MEH!
    Bring on the warm weather and thunderstorms. Have a great day everyone.

  7. Shawon says:

    Saw one Met here in Cincinnati forecast a quarter inch of ice or more tomorrow night in my neck of the woods. I am fearful of the morning commute on Friday in Northern Kentucky.

    • unclesi says:

      hopefully it won’t happen up there – nobody likes ice storms …. what’s crazy is Somerset/London/Corbin all giving 50 degrees Thu night and Friday …. and Monday giving 60′s …..

    • Pat says:

      From what I understand, it’s supposed to warm up through the night Thursday into Friday morning. So even if we get some freezing rain the warm up and the change to rain should take care of any ice. They have said it would be mainly northern Ky that will be in the freezing rain zone.

  8. Timothy says:

    And the snow dome continues,,,,,,,

  9. Lincoln says:

    I don’t like Archie Goodwin, and I don’t like this winter. Ready for 70 degrees days, not ready for 95+.

  10. Todd says:

    Another huge snow pack developing as close as northern Missouri the next couple of days, our only chance next week might be the storm track will be forced further south due to the Midwest increasing snow pack??

  11. Carol says:

    Rain by Friday morning – is he talking before the commute or later in the morning?

    • unclesi says:

      depends on where you live …. probably Lex/Gtown and north might see some ice before the commute, then warm up to rain ….. anybody south of Lex will get all rain, temps will be too warm for anything else

  12. trailrunner says:

    I have already been out working in my garden here in Bowling Green, and I have a lot of daffodils and other flowers blooming! Our last frost date (4/14) is much earlier than you guys in Lexington and Louisville. I am definitely ready for spring, but I am remembering some 6″ plus snows that we have had here during the first 10 days of March in the past, and our record snow in a 24 hour period was over 30″!!! which fell on March 6th in 1963 I believe it was. We average about 12″ of snow a year here, but we had around 1″ for the whole season last year and we are sitting at 1.3″ for this season. Eventually, statistically it’s going to happen again around here!

    • Mark says:

      Only an inch even of snow here in Nashville this season, compared to 0.4 last winter. Yes, I got spring fever big time :), which makes today’s cold temperatures a bit tough to take :(.

      But we will likely have payback sooner or later. Actually, Nashville’s biggest 24 hour snow storm was 17.0 inches on March 17, 1892.

      This was on the heels of the incredibly warm winter of 1889-90 (with January F4 twisters in Kentucky and then the devastating Louisville tornado of March 27 1890). Nashville only got 0.8 inch of snow that season.

      BTW, I graduated from WKU a few years ago, got to know Bowling Green pretty well.

  13. Marie says:

    As for the non-winter months, I believe the forecasts. As far as winter precip, I believe what I see out my window. Having lived here 23 years, I pay attention to the forecasts so I know what I MIGHT have to deal with, but I know that what I see out my window in the morning is what it is.

  14. chris g in clay county says:

    Almost ready for warm temps. If no signs of early spring, and southen ky has upcoming 50s and 60s for temps what does no early sign of spring mean? I’ve already heard frogs hollering bout week and half ago. I recorded a small clip of frogs on my phone. When u hear frogs spring is near.
    Plus I’m south of river and 33 degree rule is in effect. Darth chris g in clay sees no snow in our future. I’m like our favorite weatherman I’m getting ready to go into spring mode.

  15. Todd says:

    Bubba explained the weather situation Ky is in perfectly a few post back, we are in winter purgatory, to warm for snow to cold to consider this early spring, I guess we can just sit back and watch the TV snow storm coverage and dream about if the dome will ever show mercy on us snow starved folks in KY?

  16. Coffeelady says:

    thanks, Chris. Looks like the up and down pattern remains for at least a while longer….would still like to see one major snow, but not hlding my breath. the weather in Kentucky lives up to its legend once again! “If you do’t like the weather in Kentucky, stick around, ’cause it will change!” No truer words have been spoken about the past week or two, anyway! ;) Guess I will need to get out the waders again in the next little bit.
    Currently, we have high clouds and 33 degrees in Somerset. wonder if they are the very edge of the storm system? what say you, Chris?
    Have a greast Wednesday, everyone!

  17. MIke says:

    I have the towel in my hand and I am standing at the ropes…

  18. Pat says:

    I haven’t heard any frogs yet here in Lexington, but as I have said before the robins are back and the skunks are doing their nasty matting dance so spring is not that far off. Even though we are above average by far as for rain this winter, I’ll give 3 to 1 the the national weather center puts us in a drought by mid June even though we are well above average. I’m looking forward to the end of July and two weeks in Gods country, New Smyrna Beach Florida! I’ve got sand between my toes and a cool PBR on the way……………

    • Go Cards says:

      You know Pat that Robins are always here right? They never leave. May roost in a tree,but they are always around.

      • Todd says:

        You are right, a lot of folks think robins migrate, they don’t, and a lot of folks think cold weather kills all the bugs, ask someone from Canada or Alaska about their bug population!

        • MarkLex says:

          I always hear/read people saying about how they hope it gets cold so that the bugs won’t be so bad. But they always are, no matter how cold the previous winter was.

  19. Snow luv says:

    By the end of this pattern it seems the plains and upper Midwest along with be will have almost the entire winters snow. Everywhere else in between will get ripped off. Once that block does its things expect eek storms to come south and get there act together in the ne

  20. Allen on Whitehall says:

    Certainly, I am a very untrained eye when it comes to weather; however, it looks to me like this “plains blizzard” has commenced a much more Southerly track than the models were prognosticating. I would suggest that snow may be in store for Kentucky.

    • MarkLex says:

      NOOTTT really……

      A lot of weather weenies like myself can look at the radar but you it’s hard to actually see where the low itself is. It looks like it’s in the panhadle of Texas to me……..I think the forecast is on track. UNFORTUNATELY …………

  21. chris g in clay county says:

    If I knew how to post the frogs hollering from my phone I would post it so sll could see. Recorded it 2 saturdays ago.

    They probley froze out last Saturday it wad cold.

    Wr may end up with 1 good snow before all spring mode kicks in but the way our pattern of not having all the right mix for snow has been even thst is doubtful.

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