Daily Archives: February 20, 2017

Time posted: 7:25 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We are wrapping up a day of near record highs across the bluegrass state. Readings hit the middle 70s in some areas and we have more mild weather ahead. It will come with a price, with showers rolling in the next few days.

Once beyond this, big changes are ahead for the weekend and this sets up a very busy pattern.

Showers will roll in from west to east Tuesday into early Wednesday. This system has the chance to put down some heavy rains by Tuesday night and the models show a few spots pushing an inch…

NAM

Temps ahead of the rain on Tuesday can reach 70, then quickly drop as showers increase. Wednesday will be “cooler” with readings in the low 60s for the east, but near 70 in the west.

Thursday into Friday can see temps go crazy on us. The models have the numbers going DEEP into the 70s…

Euro

80 degree temps will be possible with enough sunshine. Winds will be VERY gusty as a strong storm system rolls across the plains and toward the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This setup can mean some strong or severe storms ahead of it…

GFS

Much colder air comes in behind that system with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s by Saturday. The GFS also shows a few snowflakes wrapping in here early Saturday…

GFS snow

This pattern is super busy with very cold shots diving into the country, and warm air trying to hang tough across the southeast. Watch this back and forth over the next few weeks…

gfs

Warm, cold… Warm, cold… That’s a setup that puts the mean storm track right on top of our region, and should mean a lot of precipitation. Everything from strong storms to snows will be possible depending on how each individual storm track goes.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 2:01 am

Mild Weather Dominates The Week

Good Monday, everyone. Spring it doing its thing much earlier than normal across Kentucky and surrounding states. Near record highs are possible today and again later this week, but this warmth may come with a price. The pattern is set to become a busy one with cold air intrusions running up against our budding spring.

Low clouds and some fog may be around early today, with afternoon sun taking over. Lots of highs will be near 70, with low 70s showing up for areas getting in on more sun. Records will be challenged.

Tuesday will find clouds increasing with a weak system crossing the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible…

Euro

Some leftover action will then take us into Wednesday morning and that will keep the numbers down just a bit. I don’t know how we will survive with highs ONLY in the 60s. ūüėČ

70 degree temps or better will be possible Thursday into Friday ahead of a potent storm system. That will roll from the plains states into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across our region. This could lead to a few booming thunderstorms.

The top 15¬†historical setups¬†to the one being shown by the GFS show a severe weather signal for this region…

CIPS

That’s still 4 days away, so we have a while to see if this signal grows or fades. Dewpoint temps aren’t very impressive with this setup, so that may hinder the threat.

Behind it, colder air blows in for the weekend with the potential for a snowflake or two.

One signal that continues to grow is the precipitation one over the next 2 weeks. I put together a map over the weekend showing how we may find ourselves in the battle zone between very cold and very warm weather. That leads to an active storm track across our region.

The medium range forecast models are¬†hinting at this. Check out one of the recent runs from the GFS for the next 2 weeks…

GFS Rain

Obviously, that was an extreme run, but it gives us an idea of  potential busy storm track across our part of the world.

I will throw you another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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