Daily Archives: October 6, 2017

Time posted: 12:50 pm

First Call For Heavy Rainfall

Good afternoon, everyone. Tropical Storm Nate continues to press toward the Gulf of Mexico, where it will become a hurricane and head toward Louisiana. From there, the remnants will track right toward Kentucky over the weekend, bringing heavy rainfall.

Nate is embedded within a pretty huge conglomerate of activity from the Gulf into the Caribbean…

As Nate moves into the gulf on Saturday, a cold front is stalling out across Kentucky. Deep tropical moisture will stream out ahead of Nate and meet up with the front on top of us. This will cause showers and storms to go up Saturday afternoon and evening, with additional storms into early Sunday.

I’m growing more concerned with the initial setup, because tropical moisture meeting a stalled front is a potent mix. Individual storms may produce flash flooding on their own in this setup.

What’s left of Nate will then roll into Kentucky late Sunday into early Monday, bringing a swath of heavy rainfall. This thing will zip through here pretty quickly and wrap up the rain by Monday afternoon.

My First Call For Rainfall doesn’t take into account mesoscale bands of heavy rain producing thunderstorms. This is more of a general, and likely conservative, first call…

Future updates may update the rain numbers and the overall placement.

A quick look at the models shows the GFS with a healthy swath of rain…

The Canadian Model has a very similar look, but is just a little west…

The NAM is too discombobulated with the remnants of Nate, but shows a ton of rain coming from the tropical moisture meeting up with the cold front…

Regardless of which model is closest to reality, several inches of rain will likely fall across the state, leading to the potential for flooding.

I leave you with the latest on Nate from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

That track is likely too far east once inland.

Make it a great day and take care.


Time posted: 2:16 am

Heavy Rain Threat This Weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We have a very active setup taking shape for the coming weekend. It’s one that will feature a cold front and tropical system hooking up right on top of the bluegrass state. This combination is one that can sometimes maximize rainfall numbers.

Tropical Storm Nate is pushing toward the Yucatan Peninsula today…

Nate will work into the Gulf of Mexico through Saturday, likely becoming a hurricane as it does so. Moisture ahead of this system will be pulled northward ahead of a cold front moving into our region. This will cause showers and storms to break out later Saturday into Saturday night. Some of those storms may be overachievers in terms of rainfall.

Nate will then head toward Louisiana and get drawn northward into the bluegrass state Sunday night into Monday. Heavy rain will be likely along the track of the system…

Nate may very well still be a Tropical Depression as it reaches the bluegrass state. How much rain falls around here, depends on the exact track of this system, but the potential is there for several inches of rain from Saturday through Monday. I will get a rain forecast map out later today.

Speaking of Nate, Hurricane Watches are out for parts of the gulf coast. Here’s the latest track and information from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

Back here in the bluegrass state, as Nate departs on Monday, another wet weather maker moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday. This system could spawn some decent thunderstorms to go along with additional heavy rains.

Chilly air then follows that up by the middle of the week.

I will have additional updates later today, so check back.

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.