Good Sunday and Merry Christmas!!! It’s hard to believe the big day is here, and it’s even harder to believe the surge of mild air moving in. This will set the stage for a dramatic temperature swing from north to south today. This will kick off a mild few days, but Old Man Winter is lurking in the week ahead.
Before we get into it, let’s take a look at December temps so far across the country…
As you can see, it’s been a very cold month to date for much of the country. That’s actually a scaled down version of how December of 1983 played out. For Kentucky, it’s our coldest first 3 weeks of December since 2010.
The above numbers are certainly a FAR cry from what we have had the past two years at this time…
Let’s get back to where we are on this Christmas Day. Temps in the north likely stay in the 40s, while readings in the south may hit 70. Wow. There will also be a shower or two on the move…
Temps on Monday surge deep into the 60s ahead of a strong cold front arriving Monday night. A line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany that front into town as winds really crank up.
A seasonal brand of chill moves in for Tuesday, but another front will bring much colder air for the second half of the week. Northwesterly winds may produce some snow showers and flurries…
That brings us to New Year’s Weekend and another potential system. The latest GFS loses a lot of the winter weather aspect of this, as it brings our system out in two pieces…
While it IS the GFS, I can see that as a very plausible scenario.
I mentioned in my last post I was seeing the potential for some things I did not think would happen this winter. There are some hefty signals showing up for a extended period of harsh winter weather engulfing our region into January. The big blocking signature near Alaska always gets my attention and has been, in my eyes, the driving force to our recent run of incredible winters. That is starting to show up on the GFS as we get into January…
You can also see a block across Greenland joining in on the fun, forcing a DEEP trough to engulf the country. Look at the temp anomalies with that…
We will see how all this works pans out, but my winter forecast is a little nervous that it didn’t go far enough toward the cold and snow. As always, time will tell.
I will shoot you another update later today. Merry Christmas and take care.
Merry Christmas Chris and to all who read the blog! Since a White Christmas is out of the question, here’s to wishing for a White New Years!
Yeah it’s wishful thinking that doesn’t look to happen
Merry Christmas Chris and thanks so much for keeping us in the know all year long. Your detailed posts and insight are so helpful to my family. Your site is one of my top visited pages!! Hope you have a blessed holiday season, and thanks again for taking such care and time with your wonderful blog.
With SE KY only about a degree to a degree and a half below average, I would think the next 3 to 5 days will be warm enough to skew my region to average for the month by next weekend with precipitation much above average. It still raining on and off down this way with the low only at 50….toasty day to come.
As tends to be the case (beside our three HUGE recent winters exceptions) a few days out and beyond, the models giveth’ and then take away. No harm no foul though, since no ice would be a win 🙂
Merry Christmas!
Bubba, one can not help but notice your love affair with the word, ICE. lol
It’s a positive spin word to counter the likely wimpy snow results this winter 😉 It appears we might have more chance for overall salt accumulation rather than snow.
CB should probably hold tight on his winter outlook. Stay the course and don’t go for the football! Lucy = weekly models.
Merry Christmas, Mr. Bailey and fellow bloggers. Hope the New Year brings more than wasted cold.
Merry Christmas to Chris Bailey and his family and all the family that reads and post on this blog.
Merry Christmas to all.
Merry Christmas!!
CB even your winter prediction doesn’t pan out, your still the best nobody’s perfect. Merry Christmas
Yawn….so, in short, as predicted by several of us, rain wins out again next weekend yawn
Merry Christmas to all!
Mele Kalikimaka seems appropriate for our area the past few Christmases.
Frohe Weihnachten und ein glückliches neues Jahr 😉
Das gleiche für Ihre Familie
Blizzard conditions across the plains with 8-15 inches of snow predicted. It does make me a little better with SOMEBODY getting some snow.
I’m looking for this winter to be very similar to 2012. Along with a very warm spring. Merry Christmas Chris Bailey and to all people on this blog
Thanks Chris, and Merry Christmas to m fellow weather lovers. (Or should I say winter weather lovers) at this time of year. I hope everyone has had a good day and lots of good things and blessings! Guess now we just hang on for the ride as winter gets geared up. Well I’m buckled in and ready! MERRY CHRISTMAS everyone!
Merry Christmas to everyone. May our winter be filled with many big snows.