Daily Archives: November 25, 2016

Time posted: 7:15 pm

Black Friday Evening Update

Good evening, Christmas shoppers. I appreciate you taking a break from your holiday shopping to take a gander at the latest update here on KWC. 🙂

Clouds and areas of drizzle linger this evening for much of the state. There’s even the chance to see a snowflake flying across the east.

If you’re a model watcher, you’re probably noticing the models are busting too warm over the past week. That was certainly on display today with many readings only in the upper 30s to low 40s. Unfortunately, your weather craps… err apps… keep spitting out bogus numbers. Sigh.

Let’s look ahead to our storm systems moving in here early next week. The first arrives Monday and lasts into early Tuesday, and should bring a lot of rain and wind…

euro

We catch a windy and mild break Tuesday afternoon, but the next system then rolls in here by Tuesday night and Wednesday. The exact track of that is still up in the air, but odds favor this moving just to our east, with another round of heavy rain for the central and east…

euro-2

A general 1″-3″ of rain is possible for the entire state from Monday through Wednesday. For many, that would be more than we’ve had for the past 2 months.

There’s even a chance we close that out with a few flakes flying Wednesday night as colder air moves in to start December. This is a seasonally cold air mass for Thursday and Friday…

euro-3

Another system is going to try to come underneath that cold air by the weekend. That could result on rain and snow…

gfs

Looking deeper into December, the CFS continues to deepen the cold across the country…

cfs

Coast to coast cold isn’t that common across the country. But the latest blocking pattern suggests that’s a real possibility!

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 1:57 am

This Pattern Is Cranking Up

Good Friday, folks. Now that we have shed our turkey hangover enough to crash the malls and shopping outlets across the land, it’s time to focus on a hyper active weather pattern taking shape. Our boring fall is about to change in a hurry as a series of storm systems take aim at Kentucky and surrounding states. This will also be accompanied by an increasing risk of winter weather threats.

Let’s start with the weather for this Black Friday and then roll forward.

Lots of low-level clouds will be around today and some patchy areas of drizzle will show up. Highs will generally be in the 40s for many.

A weak cold front drops in here tonight, but may not do a lot to clear the moisture out. In a setup like this, you have to look at the lowest levels to find this moisture. Here’s the 925mb relative humidity map on the NAM for Saturday…

nam-2

Once again, some chilly areas of drizzle will be possible. If the clouds stay in all day on Saturday, highs will be kept way down across the central and east…

nam

From there, we start to focus on a powerful plains storm system that will bring a lot of rain and wind to our region. I can’t rule out a strong storm or two late Monday or Tuesday…

euro

That system may average a good 1″-2″ across our region, with locally higher amounts.

A second low will develop just behind that system late Tuesday into Wednesday. The models differ on where that will be. The European model is just to our east. The GFS has a stronger system that would bring additional heavy rain and the potential for some wintry weather…

gfs

The Canadian Model brings that farther west across the state with another big surge of heavy rainfall. Look at the rain numbers from Monday through Wednesday…

canadian

There are a lot of variables at play with this second low, and it may be one of those systems that doesn’t truly show its track and identity until a day or two before.

Beyond that… it gets seasonally cold to start December with another potential big storm system moving in by Friday or Saturday. Track and precipitation type issues could really show up with this one. Fence rider?

I will have another update or two later today. Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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