Good Friday, folks. Now that we have shed our turkey hangover enough to crash the malls and shopping outlets across the land, it’s time to focus on a hyper active weather pattern taking shape. Our boring fall is about to change in a hurry as a series of storm systems take aim at Kentucky and surrounding states. This will also be accompanied by an increasing risk of winter weather threats.

Let’s start with the weather for this Black Friday and then roll forward.

Lots of low-level clouds will be around today and some patchy areas of drizzle will show up. Highs will generally be in the 40s for many.

A weak cold front drops in here tonight, but may not do a lot to clear the moisture out. In a setup like this, you have to look at the lowest levels to find this moisture. Here’s the 925mb relative humidity map on the NAM for Saturday…

nam-2

Once again, some chilly areas of drizzle will be possible. If the clouds stay in all day on Saturday, highs will be kept way down across the central and east…

nam

From there, we start to focus on a powerful plains storm system that will bring a lot of rain and wind to our region. I can’t rule out a strong storm or two late Monday or Tuesday…

euro

That system may average a good 1″-2″ across our region, with locally higher amounts.

A second low will develop just behind that system late Tuesday into Wednesday. The models differ on where that will be. The European model is just to our east. The GFS has a stronger system that would bring additional heavy rain and the potential for some wintry weather…

gfs

The Canadian Model brings that farther west across the state with another big surge of heavy rainfall. Look at the rain numbers from Monday through Wednesday…

canadian

There are a lot of variables at play with this second low, and it may be one of those systems that doesn’t truly show its track and identity until a day or two before.

Beyond that… it gets seasonally cold to start December with another potential big storm system moving in by Friday or Saturday. Track and precipitation type issues could really show up with this one. Fence rider?

I will have another update or two later today. Enjoy your Friday and take care.