Monthly Archives: November 2017

Time posted: 2:09 am

Winter Arrives Next Week

Good Wednesday, folks. We have weak cold front ready to cross the state on Thursday, but that’s not the system everyone is interested in. That one comes early next week and unleashes a very cold pattern across the eastern half of the country. It’s a pattern that looks to lock in for a while, bringing winter weather with it.

In the short-term, it’s another milder than normal day out there on a gusty southwesterly wind. Temps in the north will come down just a bit, but should stay above normal.

A cold front sweeps in here quickly on Thursday, bringing gusty showers through the region. Rainfall totals may hit a quarter of an inch in some spots…

 After a seasonal day on Friday, temps rebound again this weekend into Monday. From there, we start to see the much anticipated change showing up.

The GFS has rain increasing later Monday into Tuesday as our front presses in. The model suggests some mixing is possible as the cold takes hold…

The European Model is getting faster and faster with the cold air surging in here. Here we go from Monday into Tuesday…

The model then follows that up with a VERY strong system diving in from the northwest by Thursday and Friday…

There is a “wow” factor to that system. That’s especially true when looking at the upper levels…

That has an extreme look to it!

The GFS is on board with a similar setup for next week, then goes crazy the following week. Watch how the blocking keeps this pattern on repeat…

It’s been a few years since we’ve heard the term polar vortex, but there’s a chance you hear it in the coming weeks.

We know about the cold coming, but what about the snow chances? Folks, we are likely to have several chances for snow out of this pattern. I can’t pinpoint any one system or day, I can’t say big or little, but you would be hard pressed to get that type of pattern to develop without some snow around here.

The GFS Ensembles continue to be amped up with the snow chances over the next 2 weeks. Here are the latest 3 runs from the model…

For a smoothed out ensemble, that’s a pretty good signal.

I will have updates later today. Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:37 pm

Updating The Big Changes Ahead

Good Tuesday evening, gang. While the milder air continues to rule the pattern in the short-term, it’s the longer term that’s getting all the attention. We have a MAJOR pattern change coming to North America as we head into next week. It’s a pattern that will then try to lock us into a very wintry setup.

It’s interesting to look at the closest analogs to the current pattern being forecast on the GFS. Some heavyweight December’s show up…

The top 3 analogs are from similar patterns in 1989, 1963 and 1989. 1989 is on the list a 3rd time,  1989 is the coldest December on record for Lexington. 1963 comes in at 3rd. 1983 is also on the analog list and is the 7th coldest. Those 3 years had something else in common… They all featured temps hitting the upper 50s and low 60s in the first week of December. Also, every year on that list checked in colder than normal.

Whether or not we can get close to any of those winters remains to be seen, but the pattern has the look.

The European Ensembles show a deep trough that doesn’t budge because of  mega blocking showing up to our north…

The seasonal model known as the CFS continues to head toward the ideas we have been talking about for a while. Look at the 5 day average temperature departures showing up on the run from December 9-13…

Keep in mind, those are in Celsius!!

Let’s skip ahead to the 5 days surrounding Christmas…

New Year’s…

The first 12 days of January…

Locked and loaded? It’s a heck of a look and matches up with the analog years I’ve thrown out there since the summer.

Enjoy your evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:18 pm

Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Mild winds are blowing out there today, with areas of western Kentucky possibility flirting with record highs. As this air continues for another day or so, we focus on a MAJOR pattern change coming next week. Winter is coming.

I don’t have a ton of time, so let’s get right into it. The Ensembles continue to show massive blocking, allowing for a huge trough to engulf much of the country. I’ve shown you these for the past week, now.

Just look at all the frigid air taking control of the pattern…

The GFS is similar to last night’s European Model with the transition starting next Tuesday, with a big storm system unleashing the cold…

Like the European. the GFS follows that up with a snow system diving in from the northwest by the end of next week…

Man, that’s absolutely frigid!

Notice how the upper air setup on the GFS looks exactly what we have been showing you from the Ensembles…

That’s a setup that often found in a lot of our great winter periods. I’m not saying this will  become one of them, but the pattern has the look.

I will have another update this evening and will be back on WKYT starting at 4pm. Enjoy your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:10 am

Waiting For Winter To Arrive

Good Tuesday, everybody. Our run of mild weather continues, but the focus of the forecast is on a true winter pattern taking shape as we head into December. It’s a pattern that has the full confidence of the teleconnections , analogs and forecast models. Your friendly weatherdude also approves this message. 🙂

Before we get to that point, we have some mild days and a late week system to track.

Temps remain mild through Wednesday with a mix of sun and clouds.  Those clouds increase early Thursday with gusty showers quickly entering the picture. Those are with a system pushing through here into Friday, bringing temps back down…

A few of the models are trying to pick up on another system crossing the region over the weekend, developing a bigger storm near the east coast…

That’s probably being overplayed on the GFS.

Temps bounce back this weekend into Monday as winds turn back from the southwest. That southwest flow is ahead of our big pattern change moving in here next week.

As major blocking goes up well to our north, it forces a deep trough to develop and lock in across the eastern half of the country…

The European Model is now crashing this cold air in here with a potent system late Monday into Tuesday…

The Euro then brings a clipper through the region by the middle of next week…

That’s all happening a little faster than I think , but the overall idea looks good. That overall idea matches the all the Ensembles and brings a massive trough underneath major blocking. This is an animation of 24 hour increments from the European…

Look at the cold showing up in that trough…

What about snow chances to go with all that cold? Look… I’m sure there will be chances, but there’s nothing specific to point to from this far out.

As I’ve been discussing, climatology suggests all this falls in the period when we typically get our first snowfall across much of the region. With the much colder than normal pattern setting up, we may be able to do it a little better than “normal” as we head through December.

The GFS Ensembles see the snow chances to go along with the cold that comes…

I will hook you up with updates later today, so check back. Have a good Tuesday and take care.

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Time posted: 7:41 pm

Monday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. It’s a calm and quiet period, but mother nature is about to kick things up a notch or ten over the next week and change. We have a true winter pattern taking shape next week, and it’s likely to hang tough for much of December.

The evolution of this setup has been well advertised for a while, with all the models showing the exact same scenario. The various ensembles have been leading the charge and now we find the operational models and the seasonal models coming to the same exact conclusion.

The GFS Ensembles really show this blocking pattern very well. Watch how the deep trough develops as the blocks strengthen across the Northern Hemisphere…

The cold crashes in next week and deepens into the following week. Here are the GFS Ensembles 5 day temperature anomalies in Celsius…

December 4-8

December 9-13

With that much cold, snow chances shouldn’t have a very hard time showing up. The GFS Ensembles are very enthusiastic…

Climatology says our first true accumulating snowfall occurs in the middle of December and I see zero reason that doesn’t happen this year. As a matter of fact, I don’t think it would be one and done before Christmas in this kind of pattern.

I will see you guys tonight for another update. Here’s hoping you enjoy the evening and take care.

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