Good evening, everyone. It’s a calm and quiet period, but mother nature is about to kick things up a notch or ten over the next week and change. We have a true winter pattern taking shape next week, and it’s likely to hang tough for much of December.

The evolution of this setup has been well advertised for a while, with all the models showing the exact same scenario. The various ensembles have been leading the charge and now we find the operational models and the seasonal models coming to the same exact conclusion.

The GFS Ensembles really show this blocking pattern very well. Watch how the deep trough develops as the blocks strengthen across the Northern Hemisphere…

The cold crashes in next week and deepens into the following week. Here are the GFS Ensembles 5 day temperature anomalies in Celsius…

December 4-8

December 9-13

With that much cold, snow chances shouldn’t have a very hard time showing up. The GFS Ensembles are very enthusiastic…

Climatology says our first true accumulating snowfall occurs in the middle of December and I see zero reason that doesn’t happen this year. As a matter of fact, I don’t think it would be one and done before Christmas in this kind of pattern.

I will see you guys tonight for another update. Here’s hoping you enjoy the evening and take care.