Daily Archives: November 16, 2017

Time posted: 8:08 pm

Quick Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. We continue to track a potent storm system our way for the upcoming weekend. This system will bring a wild temp ride to go along with the threat for strong storms, high winds and some snowflakes.

I have no changes to the evolution of the weekend system. Friday night and Saturday are going to feature very high winds that may reach 50mph at times. This is a hefty wind event for much of our region. As the front moves in Saturday, a line of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible…

Temps hit the 60s in ahead of the front, then crash 20-30 degrees behind it. That may lead to some wet snows mixing in with the rain by Saturday night. The NAM keeps showing this…

The simulated radar from the Hi Res NAM even shows a little comma head of snow dipping into northern Kentucky…

Strong northwesterly winds then kick on for a cold Sunday. This should be able to deliver some snow flurries to central and eastern Kentucky. The far east may see some out and out snow showers…

It continues to be interesting to see the operational models going toward what the GFS Ensembles have been showing for a while now with the late weekend flake chances…

 

A full update comes your way later tonight. Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:39 pm

Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, gang. It’s a cloudy and seasonally chilly day in what should turn out to be a colder than normal November in our part of the world. It’s all eyes on the big weekend storm system, threatening to bring high winds, strong storms and a few snowflakes our way.

Folks, my thoughts on this system haven’t changed a whole lot over the past week. The usual timing and intensity issues are being ironed out, but this continues to look like a major storm system working into the Great Lakes on Saturday.

It drags a cold front across Kentucky Saturday afternoon, with the potential for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms…

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the potential…

Damaging wind is by far and away the number one threat.

Even without thunderstorms, high winds are going to be a player. Gusts of 50mph will be possible late Friday night into Saturday.

As the front slams through here, much colder air surges in, potentially catching the back edge of the departing rain shield. The NAM continues to show a few flakes mixing in Saturday night…

Northwesterly winds then really crank on Sunday and that could produce a few flurries or snow showers, especially in the east. The GFS is now seeing this a little better…

You can see Lake Michigan sending a plume of flakes in here on that northwest wind. Doesn’t that look an awful lot like the flakes map the Ensembles have been showing consistently? Yep.

I will try to update things later today, but things will be a little busy for me. I will be doing the winter forecast on WKYT at 6. You can catch that on http://www.wkyt.com/livestream . I will also be doing a Facebook live starting at 7.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Time posted: 2:32 am

Tracking A Strong Weekend Storm System

Good Thursday to one and all. We continue to track a strong weekend storm system rolling toward the region. This is a system we have talked about for more than a week now, and it’s likely to bring a little bit of everything with it. From strong storms and high winds to the chance for a few flurries, we have a lot to track.

As we get closer to the storm, we are finding the models going back toward a stronger area of low pressure heading into the Great Lakes. That drags a cold front across the state on Saturday, bringing some wild weather with it.

A line of low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely sweep through here with the potential for a few strong storms…

With or without the strong storms, wind gusts of 40mph to 50mph are going to crank during this time…

If you’re thinking of putting up those Christmas lights or displays, you may want to hold off a day or so. 🙂

Temps ahead of the front spike into the 60s, then drop through the 40s and 30s directly behind the front. The cold air tries to catch the back edge of the line of showers, causing a few flakes to try and mix in Saturday night. The NAM is showing this possibility…

Northwesterly winds on Sunday will continue to usher in cold air, with highs in the 30s and wind chills down in the 20s. Depending on the exact trajectory of that northwesterly flow, a few flurries may fly, especially across the mountains of eastern Kentucky. The GFS Ensembles keep showing the flurry chance…

A few flakes possible… Nothing more… A few flakes possible… Nothing more… Got it? 🙂

Speaking of flakes… those same Ensembles show the potential for additional flakes over the next 2 weeks…

Flakes.

I continue to watch the operational runs of the GFS, Canadian and European Models change from one run to the next… Sometimes in dramatic fashion. There’s so much action in the Pacific, they are going to keep struggling right on into Thanksgiving week.

Tonight at 6 is my winter forecast on WKYT. Last year broke my string of hitting 3 consecutive bold predictions, so I’m itching for my rematch with Old Man Winter. 🙂

Speaking of winter’s around here, for those who aren’t paying attention, the majority of our winters over the past 10 years have been colder and snowier than normal, with NUMEROUS historic events. We’ve only had 2 dud winters, last year and the winter of 2011/12.

I know those facts don’t fit the agenda of the hit and run weather trolls in our region, but they keep trying. 🙂

In terms of the winter ahead, the new seasonal run of the Jamstec is showing two positive signs for winter lovers. A weak, east based La Nina and a tongue of warmer water off the west coast of the United States…

I will have at least one update today, but it’s obviously going to be a little busy for me with the winter forecast tonight. Oh and it’s our station’s Thanksgiving dinner this afternoon, so if I’m a little groggy on air tonight… Blame the turkey. 😉

Have a good one and take care.

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