Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

Good afternoon, gang. It’s a cloudy and seasonally chilly day in what should turn out to be a colder than normal November in our part of the world. It’s all eyes on the big weekend storm system, threatening to bring high winds, strong storms and a few snowflakes our way.

Folks, my thoughts on this system haven’t changed a whole lot over the past week. The usual timing and intensity issues are being ironed out, but this continues to look like a major storm system working into the Great Lakes on Saturday.

It drags a cold front across Kentucky Saturday afternoon, with the potential for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms…

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the potential…

Damaging wind is by far and away the number one threat.

Even without thunderstorms, high winds are going to be a player. Gusts of 50mph will be possible late Friday night into Saturday.

As the front slams through here, much colder air surges in, potentially catching the back edge of the departing rain shield. The NAM continues to show a few flakes mixing in Saturday night…

Northwesterly winds then really crank on Sunday and that could produce a few flurries or snow showers, especially in the east. The GFS is now seeing this a little better…

You can see Lake Michigan sending a plume of flakes in here on that northwest wind. Doesn’t that look an awful lot like the flakes map the Ensembles have been showing consistently? Yep.

I will try to update things later today, but things will be a little busy for me. I will be doing the winter forecast on WKYT at 6. You can catch that on . I will also be doing a Facebook live starting at 7.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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13 Responses to Thursday Afternoon Thoughts

  1. BubbaG says:

    CB, we “expect” a full debrief on here as well. 😉 🙂

  2. Mike S says:

    Another winter forecast is out, this one from Dr Judah Cohen

    • Schroeder says:

      Mike S : That prediction from Dr. Cohen puts Kentucky in the shallow pool of the coldest air. I hope the precipitation stays to our north, or we would be in the freezing rain sector. How come these meteorologist never show the primary storm tract ?

      • Andy Rose says:

        Since there is only 1 primary storm track we should all know what that is. Why show it?

        • Schroeder says:

          Sometimes Andy there are two storm tracks the polar jet and the subtropical jet. This year there is only the polar jet ( negative phase ). Only in ENSO El nino years you have the subtropical jet along with the polar jet. When these two combined you have a winter storm in the southern states.

  3. Virgil says:

    It doesn’t appear that the SPC particularly shares Bailey’s thoughts too much and the severe weather potential since only having us in a “marginal” area. Kinda miss the old system when it was just Slight, Moderate, and High…

    • Prelude says:

      SPC fully acknowledges the wind potential. SPC job is for severe thunderstorm potential which is not off the table however this looks like a wind event with or without any storms that’s the main concern. This is one of these situations where you just don’t need a severe thunderstorm to tap the extremely strong winds to the surface. A heavy shower will be capable of pulling down severe winds to the surface. You just need to go a few thousand feet up in the atmosphere and winds will be to severe thunderstorm limits. It will not take much to force those winds down to surface level.

      • Virgil E. says:

        Yes but a criteria of a severe thunderstorm is winds 58 mph or greater. Since the winds could be 40-50 mph outside of storms, its reasonable to believe an elevated threat of severe weather will be present. Terminology matters to the lay person and “marginal” is interpreted to most as “not much of a chance”.

  4. Schroeder says:

    Agreed, this storm coming late Saturday is one for concern.

  5. Schroeder says:

    Just saw Chris’s winter forecast. He did a great job presenting where the blocking high pressures will be and also showed two storm tracts. My county was one in the freezing rain. But there is a chance in Lexington for a white Christmas this year. At lease it will be more active than last year.

  6. Andy Rose says:

    WYMT is basically the opposite of WKYT on their winter forecast. They can’t loose.

  7. winter lover says:

    What happen to the possibility of a white turkey day or weekend they were forecasting. I don’t it’s going to get as cold as they thought at first.The long range forecast is high 40’s and low 50″s next week.

    • Schroeder says:

      I believe that will occur only in the northeast as lake effect snow. But, eastern Kentucky could have snow flurries on Sunday. I have never seen snow and not even a flurry on Thanksgiving Day in my 66 years.

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