Daily Archives: December 24, 2018

Time posted: 2:33 pm

Christmas Eve Update

Good afternoon and Merry Christmas Eve. Let me begin by saying I hope each of you have the merriest Christmas ever. I’m thankful for all y’all and everything you do for me and KWC. As we countdown to Christmas, we find a weak system working in for the big day. That may be able to produce some light precipitation,

The European Model was the only model to hit yesterday’s rain and snow in our region and it’s been adamant on a very weak system for Christmas Day. Some light rain or light mixed precipitation is possible for parts of the region. The Euro continues to show a touch of light sleet or light snow zipping from west to east…

Again, that’s some very light stuff and I don’t think everyone sees it.

Milder air comes in behind that for the middle of the week. Temps surge on Wednesday as southwesterly winds crank ahead of a major plains storm system. That will drag a cold front across Kentucky late Thursday and early Friday, bringing widespread showers and a rumble of thunder…

Heavy rains may cause some local high water issues… Again.

Colder air presses in behind this storm, with the southern storm track remaining active. That should send several systems working at us from the southwest. Some may produce a lot of rain, some may produce a lot of winter weather. Those will have to be handled on a case by case basis. This is a setup that won’t allow us to determine track and type until a few days before.

You will get some very wild swings on the models coming up, and that’s to be expected. As of now, the GFS and Canadian Models are similar through the first few days of the new year…

Canadian

GFS

This setup is going to be tough on the models, especially the European. All this energy ejecting from the southwest plays right into the biggest flaw of the model. It has a tough time with energy coming from the southwestern part of the US. It will likely show some big time swings.

The pattern favors very cold air overwhelming much of the country as we get into the first few weeks of the new year.

I will have my normal update late tonight, so check back then. Until that time, have a very Merry Christmas Eve and take care.

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Time posted: 2:26 am

Merry Christmas Eve

Good Monday and Merry Christmas Eve! Santa is just hours away from arriving in the bluegrass state and the big guy is finding a bare ground, but good flying weather. As we go through the rest of Christmas Day, another weak system may throw some very light precipitation into the region.

Once again, this continues to be part of an overall very active setup. A setup that has a lot of cold air ready to get involved in it as we usher in the new year.

Let’s begin with the very light system for the big day. There isn’t much precipitation with this fast-mover, but the European Model continues to point toward a tough of sleet or snowflake action at the start…

Much milder air surges in behind that system for the middle of the week. A strong southwesterly flow kicks in ahead of another monster of a storm, this time in the plains states. This drags a cold front across Kentucky by Friday and it’s going to produce widespread showers and some thunderstorms ahead of it. Heavy rainfall is once again a good bet in this scenario…

Colder air creeps in behind this system in what looks like a step down process, as our active storm pattern continues. Obviously, the models all handle things differently.

The GFS has more of a northern stream influence next weekend, with a southern storm swinging in behind it…

The new Version of the GFS goes for the southern stream storm systems before the northern branch kicks into high gear…

Watch the follow up…

That’s some big time cold on the model…

I will have another update later today. Merry Christmas Eve and take care.

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