Good Monday and Merry Christmas Eve! Santa is just hours away from arriving in the bluegrass state and the big guy is finding a bare ground, but good flying weather. As we go through the rest of Christmas Day, another weak system may throw some very light precipitation into the region.

Once again, this continues to be part of an overall very active setup. A setup that has a lot of cold air ready to get involved in it as we usher in the new year.

Let’s begin with the very light system for the big day. There isn’t much precipitation with this fast-mover, but the European Model continues to point toward a tough of sleet or snowflake action at the start…

Much milder air surges in behind that system for the middle of the week. A strong southwesterly flow kicks in ahead of another monster of a storm, this time in the plains states. This drags a cold front across Kentucky by Friday and it’s going to produce widespread showers and some thunderstorms ahead of it. Heavy rainfall is once again a good bet in this scenario…

Colder air creeps in behind this system in what looks like a step down process, as our active storm pattern continues. Obviously, the models all handle things differently.

The GFS has more of a northern stream influence next weekend, with a southern storm swinging in behind it…

The new Version of the GFS goes for the southern stream storm systems before the northern branch kicks into high gear…

Watch the follow up…

That’s some big time cold on the model…

I will have another update later today. Merry Christmas Eve and take care.