Daily Archives: November 5, 2019

Time posted: 8:05 pm

Tuesday Evening Update

Good evening, folks. Your friendly weatherdude also serves as election day numbers cruncher for WKYT, so my time is super limited. Still, I’m here as promised to deliver a quick update for y’all.

The system rolling in here on later Wednesday night and Thursday will bring a lot of rain into the region. The cold will try to catch the back edge of the rain shield, giving us a few flakes…

The Hi Res NAM from above shows a few flakes coming in behind that mess Thursday night as the northwest flow kicks in.

The regular NAM shows the areas with the best chance at a few flakes…

The average of the 21 member GFS Ensembles…

Friday is flat out cold and that continues into early Saturday. I can’t rule out a few flurries Friday night and early Saturday as a system drops in from the northwest.

The setup for early next week continues to look SUPER cold for much of the eastern half of the country. That arctic front moves in early Monday and may have a wave or low pressure along it. Here’s the new Euro…

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Time posted: 12:23 pm

A Quick Election Day Update

Good Tuesday afternoon, folks. It’s a very active pattern setting up and it’s one that looks a lot like the heart of winter. That will be complete with very cold shots and even the potential for winter weather. I don’t have much time, so let’s get after it.

The system moving in on Thursday will have widespread soaking rains with it. Some areas could push 1″ of rain on a system the American models like the GFS couldn’t even see until recently. Now the model has it firmly in sight and even shows the potential for a few flakes mixing in as the cold crashes in from the northwest Thursday evening…

I want to keep driving this home to illustrate the bias of the GFS. It’s way too progressive with every trough and every system and that isn’t boding well for it’s worshipers.

The air behind that front will be frigid on Friday. We re in the low and mid 20s to start with a wind chill in the teens. Highs may not get out of the 30s for many.

The poor GFS continues its progressive bias with the next system moving in late Sunday and early next week.  The other models continue to be more consistent with an arctic front and possible wave of low pressure developing along the boundary.. That could enhance our chances for light snow…

ICON

Canadian

There is the CHANCE for our first snowfall of the season early next week. No, it’s not even close to being a certainty, but the CHANCE is there.

The arctic air coming in behind is brutally cold for this early in November. We may even set record lows.

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4pm and then with another update this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 2:16 am

A Winter Looking Pattern Ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. Election Day is off and running with a weak cold front dropping in and bringing a few showers. Those showers won’t stick around very long and our focus then shifts to some big time cold fronts with one arriving late Thursday and another late Sunday. There’s a lot of cold air on the way, my friends.

Let’s begin with our Election Day and roll forward. A few showers will be around early today, but not everyone gets in on the action. The rain will quickly taper off with mainly dry skies taking over by late morning and early afternoon. Here is your regional radar…

Wednesday looks really good with temps likely heading toward 60 or a little bit better. That gives us a really nice day, so soak it up.

Things change quickly Thursday as rain moves in here ahead of the next cold front. That front will have a wave of low pressure along it, bringing fairly widespread rain with it. Temps will then crash from north to south late Thursday with a few flakes of snow showing up for some…

That sets the stage for a frigid Friday as temps start in the low and middle 20s for many, with some upper teens possible in the cold valleys. Wind chills will also be way down there…

High temps may not get out of the 30s for many on Friday.

There’s a sneaky upper level system showing up in our northwesterly flow and this could bring additional flakes in here Friday night or Saturday morning. Here’s the upper level disturbance I’m talking about…

This brings us to our arctic front arriving late Sunday into Monday. This may have a band of showers ahead of it, but much of the precipitation looks to happen in the cold air behind it…

That could be a band of light accumulating snow for some areas…

That could even open up the lakes to add a few flakes into the arctic winds. The temps look brutal for this time of year. Highs from Monday through Wednesday may not get above the freezing mark. Lows by Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may approach record lows and reach the low and middle teens.

Gusty winds would make it feel much colder…

I’ll have updates later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.

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