Daily Archives: November 9, 2019

Time posted: 6:54 pm

Updating The Snow Potential

Good evening, everyone. I promised to drop by for another update on our increasing chance for the first snowfall of the season. The overall setup has not changed, but as we get closer, the models are obviously seeing things better and they are in pretty good agreement from less than 2 days away.

My overall thoughts have not changed one bit, but my confidence level is increasing a bit as we get closer. A few quick hitting thoughts:

  • The arctic front arrives from northwest to southeast Monday afternoon and evening.
  • Temps ahead of this boundary can spike to 60 as some rains increase.
  • As the front slams through, temps drop quickly through the 30s and into the 20s. That drop in itself can lead to a flash freeze.
  • Much of the precipitation with a setup like this falls behind the actual front. That’s where we are likely to find a band light to moderate snow developing.
  • A connection to Lake Michigan is likely to show up as well and that can keep snow showers and flurries going into Tuesday across the central and east.
  • Accumulations appear to be a decent bet, right now. Coatings to a few inches will be possible, especially on elevated and grassy surfaces.
  • Arctic cold settles in for Tuesday and Wednesday with near record lows possible.

I mentioned how the models were showing some pretty good agreement, so let’s take a look.

I’ll start with the Hi Res NAM that only goes through 1am Tuesday…

The NAM  takes us through the event…

The snowfall forecast from that run of the NAM…

The GFS continues to have a consistent snow signal…

The snowfall forecast from that run of the GFS…

Let’s check in on the European Model…

Snowfall from that Euro run…

All three models are forecasting Winter Weather Advisory type stuff, especially for the first snowfall of the season and the fact that it’s early November.

It’s looking more and more like the first First Call For Snowfall will be needed later tonight or on Sunday.

I’ll see you guys with the regular overnight update. Until we meet again, make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:58 am

Old Man Winter Is Heading Our Way

Good Saturday, everyone. Our weekend is off and running on a seasonally chilly note, but things are about to change in a hurry. A massive early season arctic outbreak will engulf the eastern half of the country and will break all kinds of records. Kentucky will be part of this outbreak and we could even see some snow out of this.

Before we get to the models, here are my updated thoughts on the setup ahead:

  • The arctic front arrives from northwest to southeast on Monday and is likely to have a wave of low pressure along it.
  • Temps ahead of this boundary may touch 60 in the east and southeast early on, with a major crash taking place as the day wears on.
  • Rain develops ahead of the boundary on Monday, but much of the precipitation appears to be behind the front in the cold air.
  • This leads to a band of snow behind our front from Monday afternoon through Monday night.
  • As the system snows work away early Tuesday, a northwest flow should pick up some moisture from Lake Michigan and bring flurries and some snow showers on Tuesday across the central and east.
  • Can we get some accumulations from this? It’s looking more and more like the answer is yes. That will be especially true Monday evening and Monday night.
  • With a rapid temp drop to well below freezing, a decent freeze up will be possible.
  • Temps will be brutal for this time of year Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps on Tuesday may stay mid and upper 20s for highs with wind chills dipping into the single digits. Lows by Wednesday morning may be historic for so early in the season.

As we get closer to this winter blast, the models are in line with the general line of thinking.

Here’s the GFS…

Here’s the current GFS snow map…

The European Model is just a little slower with the evolution of the system, but it has the same idea…

The Euro snow map…

If the trend continues, we might have to break out the first First Call For Snowfall. 🙂

I will have updates later today, so y’all come back. Have a wonderful Saturday and take care.

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