Good Saturday, everyone. Our weekend is off and running on a seasonally chilly note, but things are about to change in a hurry. A massive early season arctic outbreak will engulf the eastern half of the country and will break all kinds of records. Kentucky will be part of this outbreak and we could even see some snow out of this.
Before we get to the models, here are my updated thoughts on the setup ahead:
- The arctic front arrives from northwest to southeast on Monday and is likely to have a wave of low pressure along it.
- Temps ahead of this boundary may touch 60 in the east and southeast early on, with a major crash taking place as the day wears on.
- Rain develops ahead of the boundary on Monday, but much of the precipitation appears to be behind the front in the cold air.
- This leads to a band of snow behind our front from Monday afternoon through Monday night.
- As the system snows work away early Tuesday, a northwest flow should pick up some moisture from Lake Michigan and bring flurries and some snow showers on Tuesday across the central and east.
- Can we get some accumulations from this? It’s looking more and more like the answer is yes. That will be especially true Monday evening and Monday night.
- With a rapid temp drop to well below freezing, a decent freeze up will be possible.
- Temps will be brutal for this time of year Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps on Tuesday may stay mid and upper 20s for highs with wind chills dipping into the single digits. Lows by Wednesday morning may be historic for so early in the season.
As we get closer to this winter blast, the models are in line with the general line of thinking.
Here’s the GFS…
Here’s the current GFS snow map…
The European Model is just a little slower with the evolution of the system, but it has the same idea…
The Euro snow map…
If the trend continues, we might have to break out the first First Call For Snowfall. 🙂
I will have updates later today, so y’all come back. Have a wonderful Saturday and take care.
Probably in two weeks from now it will 70 and raining.
LOL, maybe even a severe weather threat.
The ol saying goes “A cold November means a warm and wet December. And honestly this November really isn’t that unusual.
Hey, Harlan averages to around an inch when both the EURO and GFS are averaged…I will take it as it certainly doesn’t happen often this early…only a few times in my lifetime so far!
26 degrees now at Nashville’s BNA airport, but my thermometer says 23.. The dog didn’t want to stay out long. She’s normally doesn’t mind low temperatures too much. But suppose we all have to adjust to the first cold waves of the season, just like we do for the first really hot days.
Notice CB not showing the NAM models and don’t look good if you’re a lover of snow. ( Not that it was going to be much snow anyways)
He’s not completely sold on it anyhow.
Real simple. The blog is his thoughts and what he publishes for TV is the forecast. The difference of course can be huge, since thoughts do not mean he thinks it will happen.
I stand corrected about the NAM it caved
Even a dusting in early(ish) November is a bonus. Looks like fun!
Yeah Mike that’s the right attitude. Whatever how much snow falls we will take it. I feel we will have some good snows in the upcoming Winter. Hopefully at Christmas and the coming New Year. Now that would be fun.
NWS says frigid wind chill will be the issue.
It’s interesting that the GFS is predicting more snow for Kentucky than for the Chicago area, but the Euro is predicting more snow for the Chicago area than in Kentucky. We’ll see which one is more accurate.
Neither model takes into consideration a ‘warm’ ground. Even if temperatures plummet into the mid 20’s, the pavement temperatures will take a little longer to freeze except for bridges and other elevated roadways, the gr@ssy areas may initially melt at 30 degrees, depending on how heavy the snow is falling. In other words, that 1-2″ of snowfall, if we get half of that, will likely be reported by the NWS, but not equate to what will be on the ground here in Kentucky.
I can remember back in the mid 80s the day started out in 50 degrees and rain then bam the weather change as temperature drop in change to snow and ended up having 10 inches of snow. So anything can happen don’t let mother nature fool you.