Good evening, folks. Our taste of modified arctic air is upon us to kick off the weekend, but the focus continues to be on what’s coming in here early next week. That’s when a real deal arctic front slams in here, bringing rain to snow and the potential for record cold.

The late day model runs remain fairly solid with how it all plays out. Once the GFS finally found this system, it’s been very consistent with it…

Since we are only a few days away, let’s see what the model is suggesting for snowfall…

Again, that’s the model talking and the next update may change things a bit. I’m not ready to commit to any accumulating snow, but the potential is certainly there.

We also need to watch that northwest wind coming down the length of Lake Michigan. That may be aimed into central and eastern Kentucky for a time on Tuesday. That could create all kinds of snow showers IF the flow is right.

I’m trying to figure out what the European is doing with the whole evolution because of what the model has just behind this. Here’s the Euro for Monday and Tuesday…

The Euro then follows that up with a big storm by Thursday and Friday…

While the models have been hinting at another system possible, that seems a little too much for my taste and I’m not even sure any kind of system exists, yet.

Looking a little farther down the road, the ensembles all agree on a deep trough hanging out in the eastern part of the country as far as they can see…

GFS Ensembles

Euro Ensembles

Enjoy the rest of your evening and take care.