Daily Archives: November 28, 2019

Time posted: 6:09 pm

Thanksgiving Evening Update

Good evening, gang. As we wrap up our big Thanksgiving Day and transition quickly into the Black Friday madness, we continue to watch a super-active setup. A major storm system rolls our way this weekend bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, some thunder, a temp crash then some snow.

Before we get to all that, the showers we’ve talked about in the west showed up right on cue. A couple of these may wander into central Kentucky before dissipating tonight. With temps in the 30s and relatively drier air in place, some may hear a ping of sleet.

Here are your evening tracking tools…

By the way, do you know how many computer models are being smoked by the rain in western Kentucky? The struggle bus is full of computer models right now.

Black Friday will feature mostly cloudy skies and seasonally chilly temps. Rain will increase by evening from west to east. That rain will then become heavy at times into Saturday and will be accompanied by some thunder late in the day into Saturday night as a cold front works closer to us.

That front crosses the state on Sunday bringing a big temp crash. The day starts fairly mild before the numbers drop from northwest to southeast. That’s when the upper level system moves right over the state. Rain and snow will develop by Sunday evening and make the switch to light snow Sunday night with snow showers into Monday.

This is just getting to within range of the NAM and you can see what I’m talking bout with this run through 1am Monday…

This matches up well with the very consistent Canadian Model. I’m letting the Canadian run through the middle of next week so you can see another possible snow shower maker showing up by Tuesday night and Wednesday…

That is also showing up on the Euro…

Moral of the story, light snow accumulations are a good bet Sunday night and Monday across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. I keep waiting for the GFS to see what ever other model is seeing, but it’s convinced it only rains with a 528 thickness and upper low passing over top of us in early December. If that happens, that would be a first for me to see. 🙂

If you’ve looked at the models today, you’ve noticed quite the shift in all of them toward a much colder look across the eastern half of the country later next week into the following week. Why? Because the mega-storm systems are now over land and being properly sampled. The setup late next week into next weekend bears watching as arctic air moves into the country with a system ejecting out of the southwest…

I will see you guys for a full update later tonight. Enjoy the rest of your Thanksgiving and take care.

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Time posted: 2:01 am

Happy Thanksgiving Weather

Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving, everyone. Let me begin by saying I’m very thankful for each of you for everything you do for our weather community. We can get a little snippy every now and then, but we can all be thankful for our little weather world. 🙂

This Thanksgiving features clouds rolling back in as a seasonal chill is noted. Temps shouldn’t get out of the low and mid 40s for many. There’s even the chance for a few afternoon or evening showers developing across western Kentucky. Some of this may sneak into central Kentucky by the evening.

Here are your radars to do some tracking…

Clouds and a seasonal chill remain for Black Friday shoppers. Showers look to increase from the west as we go into the evening hours. These showers are ahead of our big weekend storm system that rolls into the plains states, then moves into the Great Lakes and cuts east on Sunday. That low then transfers energy to a coastal low that slowly works northward.

An upper level system works right on top of us from late Sunday into Monday. What does all this mean? Here’s a breakdown…

  • Rain kicks in Friday night and comes at us in waves through Saturday night. A few thunderstorms will also be possible during this time.
  • Rainfall numbers of 1″-2″ will likely show up.
  • Temps on Saturday are rather chilly during the day, then climb during the evening and overnight ahead of a cold front.
  • That front moves through Sunday and causes our temps to crash later in the afternoon and evening.
  • Winds will be very gusty this weekend and could top 40mph at times.
  • Sunday will likely see some sunshine before our system drops in from the northwest late in the afternoon. That will bring rain and snow in here by Sunday evening into Sunday night.
  • A strong northwest flow will kick in on Monday with fairly widespread snow showers around. Light accumulations are a good bet across central and eastern Kentucky.

The Euro continues to go toward the Canadian with this…

Here’s the snow map from the Euro

Here’s the Canadian…

The ICON…

And then we have the GFS…

One of those models is not like the others. Bless it’s heart!

I will have updates later today. Have a Happy Thanksgiving and take care.

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