Good evening, gang. As we wrap up our big Thanksgiving Day and transition quickly into the Black Friday madness, we continue to watch a super-active setup. A major storm system rolls our way this weekend bringing heavy rain, gusty winds, some thunder, a temp crash then some snow.

Before we get to all that, the showers we’ve talked about in the west showed up right on cue. A couple of these may wander into central Kentucky before dissipating tonight. With temps in the 30s and relatively drier air in place, some may hear a ping of sleet.

Here are your evening tracking tools…

By the way, do you know how many computer models are being smoked by the rain in western Kentucky? The struggle bus is full of computer models right now.

Black Friday will feature mostly cloudy skies and seasonally chilly temps. Rain will increase by evening from west to east. That rain will then become heavy at times into Saturday and will be accompanied by some thunder late in the day into Saturday night as a cold front works closer to us.

That front crosses the state on Sunday bringing a big temp crash. The day starts fairly mild before the numbers drop from northwest to southeast. That’s when the upper level system moves right over the state. Rain and snow will develop by Sunday evening and make the switch to light snow Sunday night with snow showers into Monday.

This is just getting to within range of the NAM and you can see what I’m talking bout with this run through 1am Monday…

This matches up well with the very consistent Canadian Model. I’m letting the Canadian run through the middle of next week so you can see another possible snow shower maker showing up by Tuesday night and Wednesday…

That is also showing up on the Euro…

Moral of the story, light snow accumulations are a good bet Sunday night and Monday across parts of central and eastern Kentucky. I keep waiting for the GFS to see what ever other model is seeing, but it’s convinced it only rains with a 528 thickness and upper low passing over top of us in early December. If that happens, that would be a first for me to see. 🙂

If you’ve looked at the models today, you’ve noticed quite the shift in all of them toward a much colder look across the eastern half of the country later next week into the following week. Why? Because the mega-storm systems are now over land and being properly sampled. The setup late next week into next weekend bears watching as arctic air moves into the country with a system ejecting out of the southwest…

I will see you guys for a full update later tonight. Enjoy the rest of your Thanksgiving and take care.