Daily Archives: November 30, 2019

Time posted: 7:59 pm

Saturday Evening Update

Good evening, everyone. Flooding issues continue to plague many areas of the bluegrass state as a few more rounds of heavy rains roll through. This action ends late tonight and that’s when we turn our attention toward a Sunday night and Monday light snowfall.

If you live in a flood prone area, please continue to keep a very close eye on water levels through tonight. Here are your tracking tools to watch the additional rounds of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms…

Sunday is a windy day that starts with sun and fairly mild temps, but looks to end with crashing temps and rain and snow moving in from the northwest. Temps Sunday night and Monday will be around freezing or a little above, so our snow will be very wet, but it could come down pretty hard at times. Gusty winds will give the snow a bit of a plaster effect, too.

In terms of snowfall, this continues to look like widespread coatings to 2″. This may be streakier than our last snow, so there could be more variation in snow numbers. This is an advisory type snow event, even with a soaked ground and marginal temps. Snowfall rates can overcome all that, especially by rush hour Monday morning.

Let’s do our regular check of the forecast models…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

GFS

GFS Ensembles

Short Range Canadian through 1pm Monday

ICON

EURO

The Euro is against the rest of the model world, right now. But, you guys can see the streaky nature of the snows based on those maps.

I do expect flurries and a few snow showers to go through Monday evening across the east. Don’t underestimate the NW wind, my friends.

Looking farther down the road, a weak system drops in late Tuesday and early Wednesday. That can bring a few rain and snow showers in here, too. Behind that is a system that’s growing stronger on the models by Friday. This looks mainly like a rain maker, but we will need to see if this can phase a little sooner…

The setup for early the following week is piquing my interest as arctic air dives into the country with a southern stream storm system…

I’ll see you guys tonight with the full update. Make it a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 3:51 pm

Flooding Ongoing With Some Snow Ahead

Good afternoon, everyone. Torrential rain continues to push across the bluegrass state. Flooding is ongoing with near 4″ of rain so far on the day and more to come.

The waves of showers and storms will be with us through tonight, keeping a VERY HIGH flash flood threat going. Here are your tracking tools…

Please keep a close eye on water levels as we go forward.

The snow potential continues to show up for Sunday night and Monday. Light accumulations from a coating to 2″ of wet snow will be likely during this time.

Here’s a check of the forecast models…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

Canadian

The GFS continues to see this more and more with each run…

The Euro seems to have some issues…

I will have another update later this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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Time posted: 1:47 am

Tracking Heavy Rain Then Snow

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s another soaker of a day as rounds of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms push across the Commonwealth. Once the heavy rains wind down early Sunday, we turn our attention to a light snowfall lurking for Sunday night and Monday.

First up… The rain train. It’s rolling from west to east and we are going to see some corridors of very heavy rain through tonight. 1″-2″ rains will be noted with local 3″ amounts possible for areas getting in on a few thunderstorms. There’s even a low end risk for a few strong to severe storms across western Kentucky…

Here are your radars for the day…

Chilly early day temps will moderate from southwest to northeast as the 50s show up through tonight. Wind gusts will close in on 40mph at times tonight, especially across the southern half of the state.

The rain ends early Sunday and we should see a few hours of sun before clouds quickly fill back in from the northwest. Rain and snow will then develop by late in the afternoon into the evening as our upper level disturbance drops in here. Wet snow will then fly Sunday night and it could be moderate at times. A northwest wind will then keep snow showers going through Monday across the eastern half of the state. Light accumulations will be likely across the region.

The Hi Res NAM only goes through 7am Monday…

Here’s the Hi Res NAM snow map through 7am Monday…

The NAM actually keeps flakes flying through Monday night…

Here’s the snow map from the NAM…

The Canadian has been pretty rock steady with this for almost a week now…

The GFS continues to see the light snow potential more and more with each run…

I will likely get a first call map out later today. 🙂

The snow will likely be wet, but wind driven as gusts may reach 30mph as it snows.That’s going to make for some pretty cool snow scenes!

Those same winds will make it feel pretty darn cold…

Updates come your way later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.

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