Good Saturday, everyone. It’s another soaker of a day as rounds of heavy rain and a few thunderstorms push across the Commonwealth. Once the heavy rains wind down early Sunday, we turn our attention to a light snowfall lurking for Sunday night and Monday.
First up… The rain train. It’s rolling from west to east and we are going to see some corridors of very heavy rain through tonight. 1″-2″ rains will be noted with local 3″ amounts possible for areas getting in on a few thunderstorms. There’s even a low end risk for a few strong to severe storms across western Kentucky…
Here are your radars for the day…
Chilly early day temps will moderate from southwest to northeast as the 50s show up through tonight. Wind gusts will close in on 40mph at times tonight, especially across the southern half of the state.
The rain ends early Sunday and we should see a few hours of sun before clouds quickly fill back in from the northwest. Rain and snow will then develop by late in the afternoon into the evening as our upper level disturbance drops in here. Wet snow will then fly Sunday night and it could be moderate at times. A northwest wind will then keep snow showers going through Monday across the eastern half of the state. Light accumulations will be likely across the region.
The Hi Res NAM only goes through 7am Monday…
Here’s the Hi Res NAM snow map through 7am Monday…
The NAM actually keeps flakes flying through Monday night…
Here’s the snow map from the NAM…
The Canadian has been pretty rock steady with this for almost a week now…
The GFS continues to see the light snow potential more and more with each run…
I will likely get a first call map out later today. 🙂
The snow will likely be wet, but wind driven as gusts may reach 30mph as it snows.That’s going to make for some pretty cool snow scenes!
Those same winds will make it feel pretty darn cold…
Updates come your way later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
On the twelve of November in my backyard I recorded about two inches of snow and the low temperature was in the teens. It looked like we were going into an early Winter. This morning heavy rain is falling in my county with temperatures in the upper thirties and is forecast to rise after the p*a*s*sage of a warm front this afternoon. More rain is forecast ahead of the cold front late tomorrow and there is no chance of the rain turning to snow after the cold front blows through. The moisture will not be there according to the forecast for my county. If lucky we might see a flurry of snow ? Next week looks to be the start of a stretch of mild, and dry weather and hopefully some sunny days. Have we already had our Winter only time will tell.
Half inch or less for Southern Ohio where I live. That’s what the Charleston’s National Weather service is saying for my area.
Hope you had a good thanksgiving Schroeder.It’s not winter yet so don’t give up this early.If November is a hint at what we may expect then all is good.-EPO/-PNA will deliver the goods.Just need a slightly -NAO for suppression worries.Can see one big dog this winter coming from the South West interacting with Northern stream sometime in January.Have a good day.
Ugh, it looks dry for a few days but likely turns very stormy again with a water hose pattern, AKA The Storm Train will arrive back in town for a wet and brown December!
Bleh! Crappy weather for the weekend…..again. Need to change the rotation for weekends and rain.
Looks absolutely dreadful and mild after Tuesday with no likelihood of the Polar Vortex disruption at least through mid-December. I hope I receive a quick hitting inch or two of snow on Monday.
Question: So, why does it now take a Polar Vortex disruption for us to have a snowy/cold spell? I had never heard of the Polar Vortex until 2010s decade but it is now almost not snowing in the Ohio Valley
and Southern Appalachia region unless we get a good discharge of the PV. This sounds like an elementary question but seriously can’t find a good answer to it and not trying to open up a can of worms here but this new weather norm stinks!
Couldnt agree more. We dont even get ankle bitter clippers anymore. I was reading an article which there is a discussion about the correlation of low sunspot activity ( which is at almost 0 now) and weather patterns. I’ve really never heard of this before but sounds as plausible as any other explanation as of late. One thing for certain things have changed.
I wish we could reconfigure the jetstream to go about 500 to 700 miles more east instead of cutting up into the middle of the country. The Plaines, part of the mid-Missippi Valley and Great Lakes have done very well since 2015 with consistent above average snowfall as the storm track repeatedly moves out of the Four Corners, cuts up into the Mississippi Valley then into the Great Lakes. Oca*s*s*ionally, the jet goes a little farther east but not enough to save us from mostly all rain.
Whatever happened to the term Siberian express..Maybe we no longer get the cold shots from Siberia like we use to..Now we have to depend on a weak PV and hope it sets up shop over our head..
Terry, there isn’t any normal to the weather now. I agree, why do they call the Polar Low the Polar Vortex ? My best answer is they want to make the weather sound worse than it really is. This is all a sham to get there climate change agenda executed so the ones in charge can start cashing in. The sad part about it they will probably succeed if people don’t wake up.
Hey, there you are again with the climate change denial and conspiracy theories. This coming from a guy who doesn’t know which “their” to use in your context. So why exactly should anyone be listening to you?
The December outlook for the entire eastern half of the country is near or below normal temperatures.
NWS Louisville and Jackson both are not that concerned about an ‘impactful’ event from any snowfall, except in higher terrain of eastern Kentucky. Makes me wonder if any advisory will be issued for most of us based on the ongoing language. Of course, they’re probably not using the Canadian model, the most consistent model of choice, the darling diva of CB’s for the past week. I guess NWS does not rate consistency as part of their forecast.
Myself, I’ll just wait and watch how the NAM will figure this out, which may not be until Sunday afternoon, at the earliest.
Probably not an advisory event because temperatures are generally in the mid to upper 30’s while the snow is falling. Certainly won’t equate to any issues on the roads unless the snow is heavy. This looks like a non-event for most areas, but seeing as to how it’s most likely the only snow in the foreseeable future, might as well ride and hype it as much as we can.
Louisville has received at least 2.25″ of rainfall since about 10 last night.
I have over 2″ also just southwest of Louisville MAI airport
A brief respite from the rain allowed me a chance to empty the rain gauge. At 3pm, storm total is at 2.95″ at my place in Valley Station. More heavy rain poised to move in soon.