Good Monday, everyone. A VERY early season winter storm is taking aim at parts of the bluegrass state today. This will dump accumulating snows and usher in record cold and crazy wind chill numbers. I have the blog all set to do some tracking in a bit.
But first.. some headlines:
– The areas of heaviest snow will fall from the bluegrass region into northern and western parts of the state. Don’t be surprised to see a few 5″ or 6″ reports before all is said and done. Amounts across the south and east will be much, much lighter.
– Arctic air surges in here later this afternoon into the evening. Snow showers and squalls will kick in and could cause some additional accumulations for some.
– Near record or record low temps will be likely Tuesday. Lows may drop into the high single digits for some and highs will struggle into the low 20s. Record cold high temps will also be possible.
– Winds will be very gusty through Tuesday and that may create dangerously cold wind chills. I’ve never seen these kind of numbers before this early in the season…
– That might be on the extreme end of the envelope… but… wow!
That’s all you get for now, but please post the weather conditions where you live and I will stop by later with some updates.
I leave you withΒ a ton of toys…
Current temperatures
Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington
I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond
US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort
US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort
US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
I-75 MPΒ 127
Georgetown
I-64Β MP 97
Winchester
I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington
I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville
I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green
I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US 62 Paducah
Have a great day and take care.
Thank you Chris for all the updates and information.
Those wind chills look downright scary.
It’s snow time…..the blog’s favorite time of year!!!
I’m ready to get our snow season started!
According to my weatherbug on my phone, temp has come from 39 about 9pm tonight to 41 @2:45am. Not seeing any chance of snow showers in clay co till tomorrow afternoon/evening. Not looking foward to record cold temps expected to come.
As of 3am, finally all snow here in Valley Station. RAP model shows a band of moderate to heavy snow affecting Louisville and points just south after 7am. Those few hours could be the bulk of our snow amounts.
Starting to finally sleet in Bardstown. Looks like the transition times were pretty spot on. Hoping for at least a couple inches of snow.
4:30.cold rain in Harrison County.
Cold Rain in Versailles at 4:55
As of 5:00am: 1.3″ in Valley Station at 31 degrees. Subdivision streets partially snow-covered and slushy wet.
Don’t ya just love that magic dome around Lexington ? As usuall the colder stays just to our west and north…. Again
Cold rain in Somerset. π
Might have gotten 1.5 inches here in Schnitzelburg. Going to check on my parking lots. Should all be wet and or slushy no big deal I hope. We know more today than yesterday. ALL the models over did the snow predictions. Dry slot now then another band if it holds together. Thanks Chris for your hard work and dedication to what you do.
It took longer to switch to snow. If it had started snowing at 1 am , you would be very busy today. I have 2 inches on the deck in Cloverleaf.
Nada in Richmond.
I think CB needs to do like the SEC TV and have separate blogs. One for the NW and the other SE. That way people are not as miffed seeing “Storm”, but seeing nothing but rain and mix π
CB’s viewing area already includes much more SE Ky. NW covered by Louisville and Cincinnati stations.
Hence my point π
I agree, but wonder why not just do the SE Ky side of things..
I freaking hate cold rain. All of the snow discussion left out just how much of it we’d be getting. Called a few early risers this morning and creeks looking higher than you’d like if you’re close to them.
Everyone with rain gauges, make sure to post how much rain you’ve received to enable comparison to the snow totals later.
After all the years of model misses and similar results, not seeing how this could be a surprise. Sometimes it pans out but far more than not this is it. Even cynic me expected more coverage of snow a few days ago. Bubba buster in a negative way.
Just tell Lucy “No!” when she places that football down for a kick π
I could wear this analogy to death, but man, winter is just like UK football around here. Every fall it’s the same thing, we hear about loaded patterns, potential, blah blah blah. More often than not after a storm blows through here I see nothing but cold, gray rainy skies.
I get my oldest two through school in the next four years, and I’m seriously contemplating a transfer out of this place, either to warmth, or an area with true four seasons, lol.
Unless an over-performing clipper, this is about 95% the usual result. NW emphasis in KY and models over-stating SE totals until about a day ahead.
My new model is to take the axis from three days out and shift it 75 miles northwest. There you go – I should package it and sell it. Put some colors and a lot of squiggly lines on it and I would be on to something.
Simple regression π π
it’s not winter yet….
I couldn’t agree more Bryant. I can indeed live without the snow even though I really do love it, however, the continuing rain after cold, miserable, depressing rain all winter, every winter is something I can’t handle anymore. I never signed up to live in a colder version of Seattle….very seriously contemplating a move to warm, dry Phoenix, AZ
Sedona is better….
Or Prescott…
Ice hitting my back window in Burgin.
Little over an inch in Frankfort and coming down nicely still.
Roger looking at 5 inches here in northwestern KY – pretty much a direct and fluffy hit for his area.
NWS office needs to hear about that…other parts of Owensboro only got an inch. Henderson got 2″.
Drove from Lex to Gtown between 6:00 and 6:30. The difference of a few miles is remarkable.
Be careful out there, saw a really bad wreck on I-75 N at mile 124 when a SUV drove headfirst into the median after losing control.
When I get up at 6:45 am and look out the window I see nothing (rain?), and bare ground. I look out at 7 am an “Whalaa” it is snowing intensely and already have a quarter of an inch of snow and accumulating fast. I still can’t believe the fact that it took this long for the transition to happen. I think there is still a chance for 2″ but the transition time busted. Let’s see how snow accumulations hold. Well, it is mid November and any snow that accumulates is a bonus, much more to come, and let’s hope it doesn’t turn out quite as bad.
Temp went up from 41 to 44 here in Carrie of knott co over night. Might see a flake or flurry on the back end
can u SAY BUST!!!
Perhaps to your forecast of 3″ to 6″ for more south, but CB seems fine π Looks like the spread is mainly going to be correct. On the lower side the less NW you are, but still in the map range.
Definite under-performer for most, whatever the case.
That’s just totally not true.
Sorry CB, was referring to us SE folks and the system potential. Not the forecast.
That was some HEAVY snow here in Lexington but it’s completely stopped now. π
But of course. The 32/33 rule. It is now cold enough to snow, but most of the precipitation is outta’ here. Just like a baseball if a steroid charged MLB player knocked one out with an aluminum bat.
A little over 1/2 inch of rain has fallen here, still 41 degrees, 38 at higher elevation. Any chance of a wrap-around snow fall here in the NEKY area? Oh, well. We needed the rain.
1.9″ in Valley Station but just wet roadways…actually a pretty snow, the kind that sticks to everything. Maybe one more band…
I’m sorry for those of you who didn’t get the blizzard you had hoped for. But, her in Harrison Co., it happened just like CB said it would. We have a good 3 inches on the ground. So, “BUST”, is a bit unfair.
Beautiful coating of snow in Lexington and countywide. Starting to pick up again.
Not bad for so early in the season.
Thanks to Chris and all the arm-chair forecasters.
Sleeting in greenup
Some sleet is mixing in now at 37 degrees. Keeping my fingers crossed, maybe something white will fall a little later.
el busto ….. looking forward to next weekend — 50s and 60s, guess I better not put the golf clubs up yet.
Busto for whom? Certainly not here pal
If someone doesn’t receive the minimum amount forecast, then I’d suppose they are entitled to call it a bust. Though, it is done without much detail provided as in the case above (Axl Foley who seems to have a banana up *his* tail pipe). I prefer wins, because when you win with the forecast, then I and everyone else win with snow.
In fairness, there should be a percentage margin, say 25%, due to the complexity level. So, if someone was forecast for a MIN of 1.0″, then received 0.75″ and then that would be considered a success, though the margin of differential could be aggregated over time to reflect a better long term mapping of accuracy.
In my case, today’s 0.16″ against a MIN of 1.0″ (1-2″ forecast) would not be successful. On a wider scale, mapping the entire functional viewing area of the station and plotting the reported MIN accumulations throughout it would yield a simple but solid little methodology for determining success/failure. You could measure it county by county and color code it.
Additionally, if this sort of analysis showed you to be successful more than your competition, your marketing department could use it to the station’s advantage. Simple colors and simple metrics are always great marketing tools for states our average level of education.
Nothing, nada and zilch here in the rain Capitol that is London. Even the backside stuff is a bust. I like Bubba’s idea, the blog needs to be divided. Because we don’t get the snow down here in south central KY.
I think, if you have snow on the ground at all, it is NOT a bust for winter lovers in KY. It’s not even Thanksgiving yet, folks.
Positive spin…. Like it! π
I’m trying, BubbaG. You know how it is. This could be how it goes all winter. But … it’s not winter yet.
We are nearing 3 inches in Shelbyville and the snow is still coming down.
Snowing in greenup
2.1″ Valley Station…
That’s impressive that’s one inch more than what you thought you would get. lol
It seems like a repeat of last winter to me. Southeast Kentucky truly seems like a rainy and cold Florida. Never snows here in Bell county.
We are up to 3.1″ and the snow is winding down. Not bad for November 17th!
As of this morning, a whopping 50.4% of the U.S. has snow on the ground.
‘Hot Chocolate Moment’ – In 1958 on this date, Louisville sets all time high temperature for November at 84 degrees.
Can you imagine what the more “agenda driven” would be saying if 84 now? Notice not a peep when cold π
Hmm. Sounds like you may have an agenda as well. A bit of a climate change denier are we?
A bit of a lie perpetrator are we?
Do you think RAR is mad that the bad (always warmer) temp sensor at the airport was replaced? One less bad data point to distort the data! π π
That position presumes there is…. Ruh roh! π
I tell you though people have an agenda on most everything. I mean, what kind of agenda could you have with local temperatures. Hot, cold, in-between really. But I have seen crazier things around the net. Usually it is people with a blinding bias that cannot think bigger picture and use meaningless stuff to try and prove their point.
I will say that 84 would not be great this time of year but the occasional 70 is nice. Hope we can see a warm spell. Raining at 33 to a light snow that may give 1/2 is not exciting. But it is the weather.
Sooooo….warmest year on record last year for the WORLD but…..of course a few days of cold in one tiny spot makes your case right? How very ridiculous…
If by “agenda driven” you mean those arguing for global warming, you clearly haven’t read their argument. I myself just think that the temperatures go through cycles (ie; if it was this cold in 1905 then at some point it will be this cold again), but their theory states that warming causes the polar air to be forced southwards and therefore winters will actually become harsher. So yeah… all that said… carry on π
Measured 4.75 inches in Hebron at 10:00 AM. π YEAH!
Been snowing in Powell County since about 8am with no accumulation. whatsoever. My prediction about an all rain event was almost spot on.
What an absolutely epic ride into work this morning! I’m soooo stoked!
Snow and sleet mix…Guess you could call it “Sneet”..
Starting to snow in Ashland!
Sleet and snow mix in Carrie of knott co. Right on the backend
Enjoy it northern Ky, big time warmth for next week.
This was not as big as a bust as some of you are mentioning. 2.5 here on deck in Schnitzelburg. If this would have been in the Cold of winter, say Jan/Feb, without the warmer ground we would have had lots of icing going on. Not a bad November storm at all in my eyes. Of 2400 pounds of salt I used 300 lbs. I used a total of 3250 lbs. all of last winter. Hope this is just the start to what will be a very interesting winter season for Kentucky.
1/8″ carefully measured accumulation in Berea.
Snow Dome and Old Man River victorious. Bleh.
What was the final last call forecast, I missed it during all the downgrading during the last couple days? I believe we were in 1-2″.
I think Dome is the wrong term. More like a Wall π
The Great Wall from the North!
And us folks south of the KY river have the Great Moat of the Center!
Having both a Wall and a Mote does not bode well for us SE related folks.
Hah! I spelled moat- mote. Get er duuuunnnn!
I am seeing some indications of a warm up being reported for a few days next week. Then, they show a drop to below normal again. These warmer days are welcome since these colder days have ran the heat like crazy. Luckily our old furnace decided to die. It was not as efficient but was working so I was holding out replacing. The air system part died in the spring so we replaced the whole thing this fall. Would have been bad to have that thing die this fall. Some cold days so far.
sun is popping out ….. waiving bye bye to the snow, oh wait, the rain …
Pouring the snow in greenup, yeah not much accumulation, but it’s just good to see it snow…it’s beautiful
Got about an inch and a half here in Bardstown. I’ll take it!