Tracking Another Surge Of Rain

Good Tuesday, everyone. Monday’s system brought the goods to the bluegrass state with heavy rains and high winds. Bowling Green had an incredible 70mph wind gust. Wow! After a mild break in the action today, another rain maker surges back in here tonight and Wednesday.

The models continue to point toward central and eastern Kentucky getting the heaviest rainfall from this system, but they differ in placement.

The NAM continues to be the most robust…


The GFS is too wimpy and far east and that continues to be a bias of this model…


The Canadian looks more like the NAM…


It should be noted the NAM has a pocket of high winds tonight across central and eastern Kentucky. Given the overachieving winds from the last round, this will need to be watched. Especially of we can spawn some thunderstorms.

Let’s track whatever is coming later today…

Seasonally cold air filters in behind this system for Thursday and Friday. There’s a small chance for a rain or snow shower on Friday. But, that’s not the focus of the forecast. We save that for a system coming out of the southwest this weekend and early next week.

The European Model still has a very potent storm, but not as strong as the prior run…


The Canadian Model is trending closer to what the European has been showing lately, but isn’t all the way there…


It brings one piece of the energy out this weekend, then leaves something meandering around the gulf coast. If all that energy coms out at once, you will get something like what the European Model has been showing.

I would like to show the GFS, but it just does not have a good handle on this whole situation. Unfortunately, your weather apps and human weather apps all rely on this model and nothing else. Sigh.

I will hook you up with another update or two later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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9 Responses to Tracking Another Surge Of Rain

  1. Terry says:

    We have a small over achievement in rain here in Harlan as we are closing in on .80 and still raining with the first system. Since the second system will likely give an inch +, we should pretty well end the fire threat:)

  2. Andy_Rose says:

    Hopefully we can muster more than .2 out of this next batch for Knox. Prayers for the folks in Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge.

  3. Jason says:

    We didn’t pick much up at all in Raceland. I hate to admit it, but I did enjoy the warmer temps this morning. Felt and looked like spring outside.

  4. TennMark says:

    My parents live near Chattanooga which picked up 1.37 inches rain from this first system. Unfortunately, the very strong winds really whipped up the fires before the rains could arrive as Andy touched on.

    Even without fires, the winds have still been problematic. My in-laws and many others in Bowling Green lost power from winds that peaked near 70mph.

    Some severe weather is possible this evening, especially the farther south you are. Mainly t-storms with strong damaging winds/hail but isolated tornadoes could also be possible. The Storm Prediction Center will have an update at 11:30 am eastern/10:30 am central.

  5. Matt says:

    Are there any other sites besides mesonet that has gauges across the area?

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