Tracking Rain and The Early December Setup

Good Wednesday, folks. Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to push across the eastern half of Kentucky today. This action may cause some local high water issues as we wrap up November. December is ready to kick off with more action and a distinct turn to winter.

The southeastern part of the state has a chance to see some local flooding issues through the first half of today, while the better weather slowly takes over for the rest of the state. Here are your tracking toys to start the day…

Seasonally cold air filters in from west to east later today. That sets the stage for normal temps to begin December with highs in the low and middle 40s over the next few days.

This brings us to the weekend and system that’s looking more and more like a player. The European Model is back to showing a healthy storm system from late Saturday through early Monday…


Taken verbatim, that’s a light wintry mix to start with heavy rain taking over from there.

The GFS is heading in that direction (shocking)…


That actually starts this out as a period of light snow early Sunday…


The Canadian is more of a blend of the GFS and European, and also shows a wintry mix possible on Sunday…


The first true arctic air mass of the season is likely to descend into the country early next week, and should impact our weather in about a week from today. The European Model has this arctic front working in here with a healthy snow maker developing along it…


We still have a lot of time to see what kind of snow, if any, this arctic front brings our way. But, the air behind this is cold for much of the country…


The GFS is advertising a similar shot of air, but it’s introducing it with a bigger storm system…


It’s pretty amazing to look at the pattern for this December and compare it to the past two warmer than normal Decembers. There are zero similarities… Like none.

I will throw you another update or two later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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13 Responses to Tracking Rain and The Early December Setup

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Looks a big cell is going to hit the Gatlinburg area soon. 🙂

    • Troy says:

      Yes, that is indeed the best news in this rain event. The fires were devastating. Hopefully this will insure the numerous hot spots left smoldering will be extinguished.

  2. Terry says:

    I have awaken early to training of storms here in Harlan co. ALREADY REACHED 2 INCHES BEFORE 5:00AM!

    • Andy_Rose says:

      Finally got some much needed rain here. We are at 2.44 for the week.

      • Terry says:

        With the current training in our region, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another 1 to 3 more inches in areas between our locations.

        Crazy how fast things can change in a day. I just saw some info that Lafollett, TN was exceeding 6 inches with some flooding!

  3. TennMark says:

    The NWS confirms a tornado occurred near Tullahoma, TN. Along with ground damage, apparently radar picked up strong signs of a so-called debris ball to help confirm the nighttime twister.

    Also a tornado in Jackson County Alabama (just southwest of Chattanooga TN) but this time with three fatalities 🙁 .

    Pretty decent lighting show overnight. A bit too much rain at once in some areas as a few Flash Flood Warnings are up in TN and AL. Still, hope these fires will soon be history, but wind gusts may temporarily exacerbate the flames before the rain finally starts.

    Have a great day everyone and stay safe.

    • Terry says:

      A system like this today with training storms can even cause flooding even in the worst of drought areas like Chattanooga. So far, 3.00 inches just reached at the house 3 miles east of Harlan. I am going to work now, so I will likely come home to find a much higher total. So far, no flash flooding.

      Actually, with the pattern that is setting up, I would not be surprised at all to find some double digit rainfall December monthly totals with the kind of storms systems that COULD hit us on a regional level, at least in some locations.

      What are your thoughts?

  4. Chris Mercer says:

    The steady, heavier rains, were West of Lexington on Monday. Today, they are going to stay East. So far, the two systems combined have produced less than an inch (0.89) of rain for Lexington. Guess, this wasn’t the right place to be in for a drought busting rain!

  5. which way is the wind blowing says:

    Is Santa going to be riding on a clipper flight?

  6. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger wants to thank Mr Bailey for the best weather blog he’s seen. Bring on the cold and snow! That always helps deliver the Christmas spirit. Rodger in Dodger

  7. Winter Warlock says:

    Hello again….hello……time to rock and roll soon with an active December pattern! Lets hope for an early start this year and yes…..a white Christmas too!

  8. Terry says:

    Train machine want let up here in Harlan. On lunch here at work, my wife says 4 inches now at the house. Under normal conditions, an event like this would cause flash flooding and even river flooding, but most has been taken in so far….getting some significant road flooding, however!

  9. Virgil says:

    I really would love for the weather pattern to get back to a traditional one where we don’t have sub zero temperatures and luke hot summers and a definable severe weather season that starts up in March.

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