Good Monday, folks. Our final week of 2016 is underway with a big surge of mild air controlling the weather across the bluegrass state. In typical 2016 fashion, this isn’t going to hang out very long and some snows may fly before the week is over.
Highs today will top out deep in the 60s and could hit 70 again in the south and southwest. Winds are going to crank up as a cold front moves in here later tonight. A gusty shower or two is possible today before a lineΒ of showers and some thunder sweeps in this evening into tonight.
Chillier air comes in behind this front for Tuesday as temps drop back into the 40s… Still above normal for this time of year.
Another system then moves in here on Wednesday and could have some showers and gusty winds with it. MUCH colder air then settles in here for Thursday and Friday…
That northwesterly wind flow is likely to touch off snow showers and flurries into much of the region, with the greatest potential across the central and east…
GFS
European
Some light accumulations are very possible Thursday night and Friday.
That sets the stage for a New Year’s stormy system that can bring wintry weather and rain our way. That could be followed by another system a day or so later…
Looking farther down the road into early 2017, we find some pretty good blocking signatures showing up. You can see that well on the GFS by the middle of next week…
Notice how that trough gets trapped under the block, allowing for arctic air to take control of the weather across much of the country.
Here’s that same map a few days later…
A deep trough across the country with a ridge across the western Atlantic can be a good winter storm producer for our part of the world. Just something to watch for as we roll forward.
The GFS Ensembles are in lock step with the operational model with arctic air dominating the country in early January…
I will throw you another update or two later today. Make it a great Monday and take care.
By a “good winter storm producer”, expect all winter storm elements on the table? Not liking the trapped cold air with what appears to be a strengthening SE ridge. It will all be about location, location, location for our region stuck in the middle again.
Looking like the winter of the lower Ohio Valley being the bridesmaid and never the bride. Bring on spring if “dry cold warm up to rain” is all we’re getting. Ugh! This is Rodger in Dodger
We have had this set up before. It’s just now the end of December. Snow lovers never throw in the snow shovel too soon. My children got new sleds for Christmas. We have faith here for a good snow storm this winter. I love reading this “snow loving meteorologist blog” because CB will always post about any glimmer of snow hope. Keep it up! We need hope!
Looks like the next two systems have became rain makers. I think its pretty safe to say we in the tri state area are going to tie the all time record for snowless December. Old records are 1931 and 2014. Six of the top 10 snowless Decembers have occurred since 2001. Trend???
Forgot to add this year. It will be 7 out of 10.
In my part of Richmond we are at 0″ for December. About what i expect though. In my 12 years back here I haven’t seen any snow in December more than one to three inches… the most common amount being 0″. So, my money is on Jan and Feb!
My goodness what a beautiful day. Sunny and 70 in Perry co.!
Louisville has broken there record high current temp is 72.
Some people just have no faith. Still got January, February and maybe March to get snow and already there getting there shorts out It’s matter of time, but first of all we got get out if this west to east jet stream pattern.
“Bring on Spring!”
Yes, that will definitely work, hahaha! π
….but hopefully without starting a “bring on the severe thunderstorms!” verses “how could you wish for death and destruction?” thread π .
Fitzpatrick WSAZ just said no measurable snow for tri state till late January. Maybe a snow less January follows the snowless December.
Wsaz is a joke
yes they are
Does anyone besides me notice how we almost always end up warmer than the models show? Local forcasts only had shown 60s for the state but 70s two days in row have been achieved in many areas.
I think the models trending colder trying to compesate for average temperatures based on climatology this time of the year results in all of the wintry precipitation foecasted days out then the rain is the actual result when the storms occur.
Hey Chris – could the month of December be above average temperatures by month end?
Record high day after Christmas! Jiggity-jog. Heat Miser out there doing his thing.
My electric bill needs a break, look on the bright side its not all bad .
76 degrees in Louisville smashes the record and then ties the record for the all time warmest December day ever recorded. That’s two months in a row Louisville has done tied or broke a record for warmest temperatures to ever be recorded in November and now December. Looks like more warmth on the way next Monday possibly hitting the 60’s?
Glad I took Christmas decorations down today. If I had waited it probably would have been hotter in a few days.
Yeah the heat index might be off the chain, smart thinking on your part.
Thanks Chris. Appreciate everything you do. Sound like a wild ride for the next little bit for sure. What ever it does, we will grin and bear it. Guessing we don’t have a lot to complain about. We’ve had a pretty calm fall and start to winter so I guess its time to shake it up a little bit. We will just wait and see what happens. Here’s to a good evening all!
Recently (late Monday afternoon), the Storm Prediction Center said a severe weather watch for western parts of KY and TN is highly unlikely……only a 5% chance.
SPC still says there will be widely isolated chances of t-storms producing destructive winds and even an isolated tornado, the earlier Tornado Warning issued near Paducah bears this out.
Hope everyone had a happy and safe Christmas. A special shout-out to firefighters, paramedics, police, nurses, meteorologists π , and others that have to work holidays…….. makes me think twice about complaining that I’m back at work the day after Christmas π .
Winds have become quite strong over the last several minutes in Valley Station. Power arcs in the distance, lines arcing just a few doors from my house. Winds may be breaching 50 mph. Light showers at the moment.
December may be average or above for temperature – who would have thunk that?