Good Monday, folks. Our final week of 2016 is underway with a big surge of mild air controlling the weather across the bluegrass state. In typical 2016 fashion, this isn’t going to hang out very long and some snows may fly before the week is over.

Highs today will top out deep in the 60s and could hit 70 again in the south and southwest. Winds are going to crank up as a cold front moves in here later tonight. A gusty shower or two is possible today before a lineΒ of showers and some thunder sweeps in this evening into tonight.

Chillier air comes in behind this front for Tuesday as temps drop back into the 40s… Still above normal for this time of year.

Another system then moves in here on Wednesday and could have some showers and gusty winds with it. MUCH colder air then settles in here for Thursday and Friday…



That northwesterly wind flow is likely to touch off snow showers and flurries into much of the region, with the greatest potential across the central and east…





Some light accumulations are very possible Thursday night and Friday.

That sets the stage for a New Year’s stormy system that can bring wintry weather and rain our way. That could be followed by another system a day or so later…


Looking farther down the road into early 2017, we find some pretty good blocking signatures showing up. You can see that well on the GFS by the middle of next week…


Notice how that trough gets trapped under the block, allowing for arctic air to take control of the weather across much of the country.

Here’s that same map a few days later…


A deep trough across the country with a ridge across the western Atlantic can be a good winter storm producer for our part of the world. Just something to watch for as we roll forward.

The GFS Ensembles are in lock step with the operational model with arctic air dominating the country in early January…


I will throw you another update or two later today. Make it a great Monday and take care.