Watching The Weekend Setup

Good Wednesday, folks. For a few weeks, I’ve been pounding the drum on a colder than normal weather pattern taking shape for the end of October into early November. That pattern is here, and now it’s time to see what else it  can throw at us.

We had a touch of sleet and graupel on Tuesday, marking our first taste of winter type precipitation. Can this pattern give us some actual snowflake action over the next week?  Maybe. I’ve thrown around some of my analog years that spit out a few flakes before Halloween, so it has happened before.

Let’s start with today’s stuff and roll forward. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with highs mainly upper 40s and low 50s. The numbers will vary greatly based on the clouds and sun doing a little tango in the sky. A system diving in from the northwest can throw a shower or two our way this afternoon and evening…

There is a small chance for some flakes to fly in the highest mountains along the Virginia border later tonight.

Temps by Thursday morning will make a run at freezing across central and eastern Kentucky. The rest of Thursday looks good with highs making a run at 60.

The interesting part of the forecast comes late Friday into the weekend. A strong cold front moves in from the west late Friday into early Saturday. Temps ahead of this will surge deep into the 60s and may flirt with 70 in the far east. Gusty showers will also develop along and behind our front.

Behind the front, temps will drop in a huge, huge, way. The NAM drops the temps quickly into the 30s with rain changing to a period of light snow behind the front Friday night across parts of western and central Kentucky…

That’s a fine line we are walking on whether or not the cold can catch the back edge of the rain shield. Many models were showing this a few days ago, but backed off some recently. The NAM only goes through Friday night, but is showing the cold catching up.

It’s not alone. The Short Range Ensembles Forecast (SREF) also shows the switch to some flakes in the same areas as the NAM Friday night…

The GFS isn’t quite as robust with the cold, but is showing a few flakes mixing in on the back side of the rain shield late Friday night…

The GFS Ensembles show a little more real coverage for areas possibly seeing some Friday night and Saturday morning flakes…

The GFS then brings some wraparound moisture in here on Sunday, with the potential for a few flakes trying to mix in across the eastern half of the state.

Does any of this mean you will see some flakes where you live this weekend? Of course not, but there is, at least, a chance it happens. Again… it’s not even Halloween, so the fact we are talking about having a chance is pretty cool.

This whole cold setup comes courtesy of a well telegraphed signal from the various indices and a recurving western Pacific Super Typhoon named LAN. I made a post on this more than a week ago, describing how it had similarities to a system around this same time of year back in 2014. That system turned into a mega storm as it worked toward Alaska…

Look where Ex-Lan is right now…

The 2014 system went on to help jumpstart a record cold November for parts of our region. That’s not to say this November will follow a similar path, but it makes you wonder how much of an impact Lan can have on the overall pattern.

The short-term impact is pretty clear this weekend with blocking over the top and a cold trough into our region…

There will likely be another cold system to deal with early next week. That shows up well on the GFS…

Something else to consider for the following week is another recurving western Pacific typhoon…

We shall see how all this shakes out over the next few weeks. It’s very, very, very early in the winter weather game. Heck… the game hasn’t even started, yet. 🙂

I will update things later today. Have a good one and take care.

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7 Responses to Watching The Weekend Setup

  1. B H says:

    This will bring on the Christmas shopping spirt if we get a few flakes.

  2. Double A says:

    So exciting! I hope this is the beginning of winter!

  3. Kaity Mitchell says:

    Hoping this weather sticks around for the long haul! Nothing like a good chill in the air to ignite the holiday spirit 🙂

  4. Machell says:

    One happy girl here!! Thanks Chris!


  5. Eddir says:

    Bring on the snow. Love it.

  6. Matt says:

    When will you be releasing the Winter forecast?

  7. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Always exciting when you start talking about the first snow flakes. As far as getting into the holiday spirit, we’ve been working on our Christmas Cantata at church since the middle of August, a little at a time. So, I am kind of already there. 😉 I am not a big fan of it getting so cold this early, because I have enjoyed the smaller electric bills. Getting ready to get bigger, I’d say. I hope everyone has a great hump day. .

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