Wednesday Midday Update

Good afternoon, gang. I wanted to drop by for a quick update to talk about the upcoming weekend setup. We have a few models producing some snowflakes around here and a few keeping it as a cold rain. Are either of them right? Does the truth lie somewhere in between? Why ask why? 🙂

Before we get to all that mess, we have a system diving in from the northwest today, bringing a few showers our way…

Temps remain chilly on a gusty northwesterly winds. The high mountains along the Virginia border may still be able to squeeze out a few flaks from this system later tonight.

The arrival time of our strong cold front for the weekend is speeding up. It’s looking more and more like we get in on a 30+ temperature swing from west to east later Friday as the front moves in. The NAM shows this huge drop…

The NAM continues to be the fastest model with the cold air surging in from the west. Given the fact that much of the precipitation is along and behind the front. it makes sense that the model keeps showing a switch to some light snow Friday night and Saturday morning in the west and central parts of the state…

On the other side of the spectrum, the GFS isn’t quite as cold as the NAM, and is a bit slower with the arrival of it. That keeps much of the precipitation in the form of rain, with just a few flakes mixing in on the back edge…

Knowing a little bit about the biases of each model, the truth is likely somewhere between these solutions. The NAM usually handles low-level cold temps better than the GFS, but can be too aggressive. Even if we split the difference, we may be able to get some wet flakes flying in some areas late Friday night and Saturday morning.

Most of the precipitation ends by Saturday evening, as temps drop into the 30s on a gusty northwesterly wind. That wind may touch off  a few rain showers on Sunday, possibly mixing with a flake or two. That keeps showing up on the GFS…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4, and will try to throw another update your way this evening.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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2 Responses to Wednesday Midday Update

  1. which way is the wind blowing says:

    Bundle up.

  2. Teacher Nate says:

    I can sense the excitement in his writing…..

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