Tuesday Afternoon Weather Notes

Good afternoon, gang. We actually have a little bit of sun out there today, and that’s going a long way to improving our cloudy attitudes of the past few days. As we look ahead, we find a super-duper setup, with a huge rain and wind maker, followed by the potential for some Christmas snows.

Before we get to Christmas weekend, we have our first rain maker hitting parts of the state on Wednesday. The southern half of the state should see most of the rain, with locally heavy amounts possible in a few spots…

A few wet flakes will try and mix in on the far north and northeastern part of the rain, but it’s not a big deal if that happens.

Thursday will see our skies dry up, so enjoy it. Things get very active Friday into early Saturday as our cold front moves in, with slow-moving storm system developing along it. This is going to be a big rain maker, especially central and western parts of the state, and could lead to a high water threat.

The GFS is slowly coming around to the heaviest rains targeting these areas…

The Canadian is a lot juicier with the rain totals…

Some thunder is also possible Friday and Friday evening as temps spike toward 60 degrees. Winds will be very gusty and could become more of a player as we get closer.

Much colder air then crashes in as the front slams through here Saturday. That will try to switch the rain over to a mix or period of light snow…

The front the slows down as it moves into the Appalachian Mountains, allowing for a wave or two of low pressure to develop along it. The models are still struggling with placement and strength of these lows, and that should continue for a few more days.

The Canadian Model continues to show a nice swath of Christmas eve and Christmas Day snow in our region…

That low is pretty darn close to being a much bigger deal on that model run. You will also notice the negative tilt showing up, which would argue for a stronger low. Check our the cold coming in on that run. Ouch…

The GFS continues to struggle mightily, especially with the latest run. It has a lot of work to do to shed its progressive/flat bias…

Ironically, the run before that was strongly trending toward the Canadian and European Models…

To recap:

  • Heavy rain and some thunder is likely to start the Christmas weekend. This may bring a local high water threat to central and western Kentucky.
  • Temps crash on Saturday with the chance for a mix or some light snow showing up.
  • A wave of low pressure develops and brings the chance for snow Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The extent of this is still a long way from being determined. That said, we have a real chance for, at least, some light snow for the big day.
  • Arctic air comes in behind all this for Christmas Day and beyond.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another long-winded update for you this evening. 🙂

Have a great day and take care.

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31 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Weather Notes

  1. Coffeelady says:

    Thank you again Chris. I don’t know how you have time to do anything other than keep us weather weenies informed! But it is sure appreciated! Will be looking forward to the next update! Have a great afternoon everyone!

  2. LeeAnn says:

    Chris, thank you for these updates! Lots of us snow lovers are hoping for a white Christmas, and we thank you for keeping us informed and sharing your expertise (we’re doing our part, crossing fingers and toes, doing snow dances, and checking in here at least ten times every day!).

    Have a great one, all.

  3. Stormtracker_WV says:

    LOL “weather weenies”, I love it!

  4. Kerstin says:

    Looking interesting…now just hoping there is no track of ice between rain and snow on Christmas Eve/Christmas…it’s been missing from the past few models, and that would suit me just fine…

    Thanks for your great communication of what you are trying to interpret from the models!

  5. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, AccuWeather on Christmas Eve had my area in a major ice event with a total accumulation of 1.27 inches of ice. Since then they have changed the forecast to light precipitation of snow, sleet, rain and some freezing rain. What is this some kind of joke ? The current GFS has Christmas weekend dry and in cold in high pressure. The NAM currently has us in rain for tomorrow. Doesn’t seem like they are going to agree on anything. This doesn’t bother me at all, but people who are traveling it would be stressful.

  6. SHAAK says:

    All aboard the hype train! Next stop, Christmas Eve!

  7. Lotsasnow says:

    100percent chance of no Christmas storm!!cold and sunny 100percent chance

  8. Lotsasnow says:

    Joe bastardi says the storm will be on the coast.

    • which way is the wind blowing says:

      We have a chance and that is all you can ask.

    • BubbaG says:

      But of course he would. Virtually every time he says that. He may be right… Let’s see what Charlie Bravo says later.

    • Troy says:

      Who cares what Bastardi says, considering he was wrong many more times than he was right last winter (and winters before for that matter). Besides, his only claim to fame was his Sandy prediction…otherwise he is no better a meteorologist than thousands of others…

  9. Andy Rose says:

    I don’t ever remember the weather being this uneventful hopefully that changes this week.

    • Jimbo says:

      It’s still early. But this past Fall was very uneventful and were it not for the southern snow last week, December would be just as dull. No Blizzards, Nor’easters or big Pacific Coast Storms so far. I hope we aren’t heading in the same direction as last Winter. A big snowstorm would be great. But I would settle for a small one for the Holidays.

  10. Nasdaq says:

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say, we just might not know until short range models come into range.

  11. Mike S says:

    While I don’t see significant snowfall for much of our region (4″+), it is possible to see some minor accumulation up to 2″, maybe near the holiday for some. But I am not falling for that late next week smackdown courtesy of the Euro just yet.

  12. Portland Weather Dude says:

    WOW, all the haters, and “hype train”‘ers are out in full force.
    Chris DOES NOT say anything to entertain the thought of :HYPE:
    He merely states of his interpolation of the models as he sees them.
    He does an excellent job of keeping us all informed. More so than my 4 local stations here in Louisville.
    Chris, pay no attention to the haters.
    You are extremely appreciated by the vast majority here.
    Rant is over for now

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