Watching A Possible Late Week Winter Storm

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s a milder pattern taking shape for the next few days, but a developing winter storm is going to try and steal the show by Friday and Saturday. It’s a system that may target parts of our region for the worst of the winter weather.

Before we get to that mess, let’s talk about the weather out there today.

Low clouds and fog are going to be awfully stubborn today. Throw in some drizzle and light showers, and you can get a pretty ugly day for some…

Showers move in tonight as warmer air surges in from the southwest. Temps spike well into the 50s on Wednesday, with 60 possible in the south and west.

From there, the 60s show up for many of us on Thursday, with showers and thunderstorms on the increase. This is ahead of a modified arctic front dropping in from the west and northwest. As that front moves in, low pressure develops to our south and rolls northeastward.

The exact track of that low will be the key on who gets in on a potential winter storm from Thursday night through Saturday. Right now, odds favor that low lifting from the deep south into east Tennessee and toward West Virginia, but the evolution on all that is still in doubt.

I’m fully anticipate a Winter Storm Threat coming later today, but I wanted to go ahead and try to give a broad view of the areas most at risk for a potential impact…

The greatest risk area is pretty general as I expect the brunt of the storm to be felt somewhere within that area. It does NOT mean the entire area will get hit , though I certainly can’t rule it out. The timing on it all is also dependent on your location. The farther west, the earlier the impact, obviously.

Let’s look at the latest model trends.

The GFS is farthest east of the model spread…

The GFS is a healthy hit for much of Kentucky.

The Canadian Model is a little stronger and slower and is just a hair west of the GFS with the greatest impact…

The European Model continues to be farthest west of all available models. It’s the only one closing off the energy at 500mb, and that is likely due to the bias of the model in being too slow with southern stream energy…

That’s still a healthy hit for western and central Kentucky, but it’s likely too wound up with the surface low. Still, it’s the European Model, so it gets a little more of a look.

The individual members of the GFS Ensembles like the bluegrass state..

Here’s the average of those 21 models…

Some thoughts:

  • It’s important to note the above models are not forecasts from me. I’m just sharing the behind the scene  goods with you guys.
  • Nothing is close to being etched in stone, but this looks like an Ohio Valley winter storm in the making.
  • Does that mean it hits your house? No. Does it mean you have an increased chance? Yep.

As the storm departs, wraparound snow showers and flurries may carry us through Sunday. That’s also when temps have a chance at hitting the single digits again…

Another system is likely to blow in here early next week, potentially bringing some snow…

This continues to be one amazing winter pattern across the country!

I will have updates later today, with the potential of upgrading to a Winter Storm THREAT for parts of our region.

Have a great day and take care.


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78 Responses to Watching A Possible Late Week Winter Storm

  1. SHAAK says:

    This system is certainly interesting to watch.

  2. MarkLex says:

    omg…panel e12 please

  3. Nasdaq says:

    GFS still east, and has the support of the NAM…Euro more west and has the support of the CMC. One of them will fold to the other in the next 24 hours…

  4. Bernard P. Fife says:

    YAY, just outside of the greatest risk area 🙁

  5. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris for all your updates on the impending storm for late Friday and Saturday. Viewing the models you presented on your blog this morning, the exact track is still an estimate, which is to be expected at this early date. Putting the weather models aside and studying the twelve hour water vapor loop, this morning I notice in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, a surface low is developing and seems to be stationary at the moment. In the Atlantic, the high pressure system is holding this surface low at bay, so through deduction, this high pressure ridge is going to determine the path of the storm forecast for late Friday and Saturday. I believe this is what the models are looking at before all come in agreement.

    • BubbaG says:

      In other words, contrary to yesterday’s model agreement with less data than now, they are not in agreement 😉

  6. which way is the wind blowing says:

    I cannot complain about the forecast.

  7. Snowteach says:

    He said West Virginia!!!!! HE SAID WEST VIRGINIA!!!!! woo hoo!!! Maybe finally we can get some snow. Chris can you move that red line over just a bit east? Us teachers (who faithfully follow you and hang on to your every word) would really like to make sure that Putnam, Cabell and Mason are securely in your red circle. Asking for a friend lol…. Please and thank you!!

  8. Russell says:

    Fingers crossed west ky finally gets in on it!

  9. Drew says:

    Any chance this shifts a little more east and eastern ky gets the bulk of the snow?

  10. Cold Rain says:

    Hope the GFS/Nam can pull a hail Mary..Doubtful when no other model is showing a East solution..Dang redcoats..

  11. B H says:

    Need to get that word possible removed from the forecast. Needs to read. (Heavy Winter Storm to hit Tri State Area this weekend.)

    • BubbaG says:

      Usually if the models start drifting from being in agreement the closer in, that tends to not be a good thing for snow totals. if not threat mode in the next update, it probably is not happening and the trend for past two winters wins out.

      That said, this is the closest to CB calling a threat mode for snow since 2016…. THIS close.

  12. Clapp Landscaping says:

    Better come back west

  13. Catsfan92 says:

    I’ll take E12 please and thank you. Louisville needs a good thumping of snow.

  14. Jude says:

    This winter lows have trended more east than west.
    We’ll probably see threat mode this evening or tomorrow morning.

  15. Prelude says:

    The 12z NAM shifts further west slower but alot of precipitation looks to me bigger wintry hit for Kentucky

    • C in BG says:

      I agree. The only reason it might look like its an “all rain” event for KY is because the model run only goes out to late Friday night.

  16. Lotsasnow says:

    Looks like the latest nam has mostly rain for all of kentucky of course

    • Prelude says:

      No your absolutely reading the NAM model wrong! The NAM is slowing down the system the NAM only goes 84 hrs out. It shows the transition in western Kentucky and then it moves east but it can only see 84 hrs out

  17. Nasdaq says:

    nam appears to have moved to the euro, gfs likely to follow

  18. Cold Rain says:

    Don’t have as strong of a epo ridge..Gonna cut NW..Nam still looks like a big hit for W KY though..Guess if you’re in western ky or anywhere in ky hope for the euro to not keep shifting NW or nobody gets snow..

    • Prelude says:

      Wrong!!!! The 12z NAM has slowed this system down at the 84 hr of the NAM which is 12z on Saturday the NAM has the secondary Low around the Chattanooga area the biggest question is when the secondary Low makes that northward jog. The transition is slower with the NAM due to the NAM slowing down the system. I actually like the look of the 12z NAM for a pretty good hit of snow for most of Kentucky.

  19. Zach says:

    Look like West KY looks to be absolutely hammered on the current NAM….

  20. Live down in White Bluff, TN…seems we are in the game as well. got a 2 year old who I think can appreciate snow for the first time so I really hope we can cash in.

  21. Lotsasnow says:

    Ok I’m probably reading wrong

  22. Lotsasnow says:

    I need to quit watching the weather channel and accuweather they say it may hit Chicago area.

  23. Drew says:

    Prelude, at this point what are the models looking like for the Ashland area? General 1-3 inches or more?
    Thanks

  24. jackson says:

    I’ve got the ATV’S fueled up and ready for some fun winter riding on the mountain trails. Now I just need mother nature to give us some accumulating snow here in East KY to add to the beautiful scenery.

  25. C in BG says:

    12z GFS has a similar look to the NAM. Slows down the system, looks deeper with the low. Interesting…

  26. Nasdaq says:

    lets see if the euro makes any moves

  27. Prelude says:

    The Canadian showing Southern Indiana and the Ohio river county’s in Kentucky getting a thumping. Bottom line is somebody in the Ohio Valley is going to get a decent snow

  28. Cold Rain says:

    Wonder if this will probably be a heavy wet snow..Lots of ice showing up also for western parts..Good if you like snow..Bad if you like power..

  29. TeacherMomof2 says:

    How about Northeast Tennessee, Prelude? Don’t even care that it’s a 3 day weekend, I just want snow!!!!!!!!!

  30. Jason says:

    Yep, looks like central and eastern KY will mostly get rain.☹️

  31. B H says:

    Let’s see what Chris Bailey has to say for the afternoon update coming soon. Things are going to change with the computers forecast this far out. Nothing etched in stone yet.

  32. Troy says:

    Haven’t you people learned yet? We are still 4 days out and the models are going to change ( possibly significantly) between now and then. I see many of you cherry picking a model and then cherry picking a particular run from said model and rolling with it. Bottom line, we are not going to know anything remotely definitive until at least Thursday and even then, it’s not set in stone. Haven said that, as Bubba has stated, Chris’ lack of threat mode as of yet is very telling…

    • Rodger in Dodger says:

      You’re right BUT this is by far the biggest snow threat we’ve seen in nearly two years. People are excited. This talk of Chris being apprehensive is silly though. He’s being careful with what he’s saying is my guess, but he’s excited too. Rodger in Dodger

    • Prelude says:

      I agree with that statement, however the system is on land so these runs are now getting properly sampled.

  33. Cold Rain says:

    Just looks like a sharp cutoff for a few inches and a whopper..Hence my comment about a NW solution for the heaviest snow axis..Don’t think we want to be rooting for the Euro..Unless it falls in line with the nam/gfs..

  34. Lucy says:

    Think positive! The moisture from Gulf is promising as is low position. It is still a few days out and we all now how shifts can occur. This does look widespread. Come to us snow!! Eager for CB update. Surprised we have not seen one yet. He must be examining everything and then deciding how to carefully word everything to avoid being misconstrued.

  35. Justin says:

    I have to remind myself- when these model runs start waffling around… and they’re going to in the next 2 or 3 days, they’re not trying to rip me off. They don’t make the weather happen; they’re just trying to figure out what it’s going to do. everybody in the Ohio and Tn valleys wants to see a big snow. Considering the width of the snow stripe if it even takes place, maybe a 16th of us will be in the sweet spot. The other 15/16 of us will be ripped off. This was written for me… I need a reality check

  36. B H says:

    Lucy you just went over half the peoples head on this blog with that word misconstrued. Including mine. Lol.

  37. Schroeder says:

    All of you have great comments ! I really enjoy reading and learning from others. Prelude, your knowledge of meteorology really impresses me. If your not a meteorologist you should be. Great work tracking this impending storm !!

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