Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. I’m dropping by for a quick update on the late week winter storm potential. The wild looking setup hasn’t changed at all, with a huge temperature swing leading us into an Ohio Valley winter storm. Now, it’s all about figuring out where the low tracks and who gets the biggest impact.

I can say this, the setup looks more potent today than it did yesterday, with the potential for this low to strengthen just a little more. That means wind will also become more of a player.

The GFS continues to put down ice and snow across much of the bluegrass state…

The Canadian…

You can clearly see both models taking the track I outlined last night, from east Tennessee to West Virginia. That is usually a good track for a swath of heavy snow across our region. That fits with the outline I put out last night…

Some thoughts:

  • I have not upgraded to a Winter Storm THREAT because I want to see the afternoon runs, especially the European Model.
  • This WILL be upgraded, but I want to specifically target the main areas of concern when I do. Right now, it would be pretty general.
  • The prime time for this system to impact our weather will be from Friday afternoon into early Saturday.
  • Winds will become a player with this system, with gusts reaching 25-30mph at times.
  • Another system comes in behind this one by early next week. That may be another snow maker.

I’m off work today, so I may not follow my normal updating times. You may get a few more updates before the day is finished.

Make it a good one and take care.

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121 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. Rodger in Dodger says:

    All aboard the SNOW TRAIN! Rodger in Dodger

  2. Lucy says:

    Snow is coming!!

  3. MFR says:

    You Rock!

  4. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Enjoy your day off. Looks like fun and games ahead…hang on!

  5. Spencerlady says:

    Thanks Chris for keeping us informed with the latest updates!

  6. Tom says:

    Thanks. In the next update I’d appreciate your thoughts on the odds the storm track could actually be a little further east than currently shown on the gfs. GFS normally corrects west, right?

  7. BubbaG says:

    Last night CB was thinking of upgrading to threat for this morning, but now pushed out again. In contrast CB says it is more potent today than yesterday….. Then I reread the post and CB is not yet understandably confident where the main impact will be. Seems might be a tight path for the main action. Coin flipper of what part of the state might get the stuff.

    • BengalFan says:

      At least we have a coin flip!!!!!
      Models are putting the ball down, we can see the field goal..

      Kick it bubbaG!!

  8. gene says:

    Come on big snow!

  9. Formerly from KY says:

    The European model has been calling for track more west than the other models and has been consistent with that track.

  10. Drew says:

    From those two models it looks as if northeastern ky will get some pretty good snow as well. Am I wrong?

  11. JaredKY says:

    most Mets in the L-ville are hyping the warmth more than any chance for significant snow as matter of fact one notorious snow lover says no snowstorms to currently track. laughable. While the warmup is nice it’s only storm related and not like a sunny spring day.

  12. Dr WX says:

    From all the models thus far looks like the best chance of snow so far this season.❄❄

  13. B H says:

    Chris said it’s going to get windy. That snow will be smacking you right in the face so keep your head down. lol.

  14. Lotsasnow says:

    The northwest shift will start with the midnight runs. I will be surprised if any of kentucky gets more than 2 inchs of wrap around snow.

    • BubbaG says:

      You should maybe change your name to NotLotsasnow. 😉 That said, I do think an ankle biter is best case for most, but have been saying that for awhile. As soon as the models started disagreeing and remaining so was my jump button.

      Still a good chance “some” KY area gets more than a Chiuaua threat, but the models seem too contradictory to peg down- hence CB’s threat push-out.

  15. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Christ for the updates.

  16. Dawnp007 says:

    C’mon- bring on a big, ole snow!!!!!

  17. UPSLOPE says:

    i would be very surprised if the Low travels up the highest WV mountains , usually its 1 side (Charleston/Ohio River) or the other side (I-81 corridor) .. I guess we shall see

  18. Formerly from KY says:

    Looks like people in Illinois and Indiana might get clobbered with this system.

  19. Tim says:

    This morning, the Louisville Mets are saying no snow for most of Kentucky. Their snow line goes through western Kentucky, into central Indiana, about 30 miles or so north west of Louisville. Central Kentucky could receive an inch, with south east Kentucky getting all rain.
    But they did say the EURO is more west, going through Kentucky, the Nam is more east and the GFS was unorganized at the time.
    None has snow in their forecast for this coming weekend, that I have seen.

    • BubbaG says:

      West of I64 seems a decent average model bet so far (FWIW), but still too early. As each post pushes the threat out, less likely a big snow storm for most.

  20. A-Rod says:

    Thanks Chris for all your hard work on this site!! You are much appreciated!! I hope Central Kentucky gets dumped on this weekend as long as its all snow and no ice. It would be nice to get at least one snow storm this winter.

  21. LouisvilleSnowDome says:

    I will do my best to prevent any snow from impacting Jefferson County, KY. (3/3 in snow defense this year)

  22. Bjenks says:

    Trends will win and this has a NW shift written all over it. Ohio River north will get the big stuff while we here South of the Ohio Cold rain. Got to go with the trends. The GFS and Canadian will join the Euro here in the near future. But, on a side note I hope you are 100% correct on your thinking of the low going south into WV. That would makes everyone in KY Happy. Enjoy your day off and Thanks!

    • msd87 says:

      If trends will win, then you better go to Virginia because everything has trended East. The reality is that no one knows until the upper energy comes onshore, which (I think) happens in around 24 hours.

  23. Josh Vervoren says:

    EURO with big hit to southern Indiana!!! 🙂 Let’s hope it stays that way

  24. Lucy says:

    Would someone link me the models? Thanks

  25. Nasdaq says:

    IN, Western KY and Western TN get slammed, will the euro move further east at 00z, who knows..tune in

  26. Drew says:

    Anyone have a link to the newest EURO?

  27. Jimbo says:

    The Huntington area TV Stations aren’t giving this event much attention. They are more impressed with the big warmup and only have rain to flurries on Saturday. I hope if I don’t get any snow at least some of you fellow snow lovers in Kentucky do well.

  28. Drew says:

    All this hype over the EURO and ashland area only seeing an inch or so.. Not getting my hopes up here:(

    • Prelude says:

      There will still be plenty more adjustments. Looks to me everyone will get snow statewide some will get more than others.

    • Mike S says:

      depends on track of low along that front. Anything north and northwest of that low = smackdown…would need a track up the other side of Apps for Ashland to get anything substantial.

      • BubbaG says:

        This could be why CB has backed off twice already from a threat mode for KY and is using the word “region” instead. The storm does seem stronger with the Euro, just not as much KY in the “region”.

        Maybe an ankle biter is the new threat mode….

    • BubbaG says:

      CB is stating a major storm “for the region” That includes adjacent states- in this case the Euro looks like Kentucky might get a side west glance of the main stuff and less the further east. At least if CB is referring to the Euro.

      I respect CB does not mean or intend it, but almost seems a tad misleading if folks are expecting mainly Kentucky.

      • Mike S says:

        I do believe he is going into Threat mode on next update…just trying to pinpoint P-types and location, always a tough thing to do. This morning’s run of NAM picks up on changeover to sleet/fr rain west of Louisville during Fri afternoon. Interesting location of Low pressure. With that scenario, I do believe a smackdown in order for central and west KY especially for sleet, fr rain, heavy snow, and wind.

  29. Justin says:

    I guess I’ll be happy just to see something frozen fall out of the sky. Southern middle tn, or at least lewis county hasn’t seen one flake or sleet pellet this winter. No flurries, NOTHING!!!!! GFS has shown a fictitious 7 day out snow storm every week since Nov. I think they have it programmed to do that just for fun.

  30. winter lover says:

    Our mets here in western,ky has jump on Chris conclusion. Snow chances on Friday night and saturday

  31. LOUTeach says:

    Thanks for the updates CB! BOTS! I say! Would love to have snow to sled in with my family this weekend! The good wet stuff that you can roll up like sod to build a huge snowman! Its a long weekend too for teachers and students with MLK day!

  32. B H says:

    I’d say do not buddy up to any one model till we get a little farther down the road. Seems everybody is going with the computer run that’s gives them there best shot of snow. Chris is going to wait till he has a very good idea where this thing is going. Like I said before you want the low pressure to go south under you about 150 miles moving to the north east. If it goes right over you. You are going to be on the wrong side of the storm. The heaviest snow will be on the northwest side of the storm all most always.

  33. Lotsasnow says:

    So just about every model except the Euro is in agreement and everybody’s going with Euro? Is it that accurate?

  34. Prelude says:

    This storm system has a lot of moisture to work with the Gulf is open for business. Models are in agreement that around 2 inches of precipitation will fall. The first half of this storm will fall as plain rain the second half of this storm is where the problems are. The NAM has freezing rain changing to snow the GFS has pretty much all snow. So does the rain go to a period of freezing rain possibly sleet then snow or does the column cool at all levels rapidly and the second half of the storm be primarily snow? Questions that still cannot be answered as of yet.

  35. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I never claimed to be an expert, Andy Rose, but my approach to the weather is wait and see what happens and prepare the best way possible. SHAAK, you speak falsely that I am some sort of leftist when in fact I think no matter if it’s left or right wing, it’s still the same bird, so I despise both.

    Bubba, I am right-handed. 😉

  36. Justin says:

    So, after looking at that link above to the euro, it seems like the swath of snow that it’s showing has a more vertical look to it. Is that because the Euro thinks the trough axis is more negative w/ a slower storm? I know it prob won’t happen that way, but if it did that would be a heck of a snow for west tn and west ky up thru indiana

  37. BengalFan says:

    “Our Region”??? I now you said you are waiting to hone in on specifics, but when you tweet Euro says major winter storm OUR REGION…who’s region? IN, OH, WKY, NKY, CKY, EKY?
    To me Euro still says IN,OH, WKY and Lousiville looks major, everyone else in KY minor?
    I look forward to next update / tweets!

  38. Mike S says:

    I know the models will continue to adjust, but the current setup of the Low’s position and possible track reminds me of the March 30-31, 1987 snow when just prior to the event, temps had surged into mid to upper 70’s and crashed into the upper 20’s here in Louisville. Over 9″ fell in Louisville while only a little over 2″ fell in Lexington. There could be that dramatic of a cutoff in terms of who gets some versus who gets too much.

    • BubbaG says:

      That’s the Euro and the model CB referenced in his tweet. Saying Region instead of Kentucky fits that, since mainly a swipe for most in Kentucky. CB seems to favor the Euro, else why tweet it over other model runs?

  39. Prelude says:

    18z NAM just mic dropped western Ky and north central Ky with a crushing winter storm

    • KBinNKY says:

      Yep, even huge snow totals in West TN, everything west and north of Lexington looks to get in on the action.

      • Prelude says:

        Scary part about the NAM run is the NAM only goes out 84 hrs and showing crazy total amounts and the accumulating precipitation goes past the 84 hr. Yikes!!!

    • Josh Vervoren says:

      Let’s hope it doesn’t change but I fear the NW shift is coming in tonight’s runs 🙁

    • Zach says:

      What site do you use to look at the NAM?

    • BubbaG says:

      You guys can have it! Happy digging, since not a digging fan here 🙂 I still feel CB has a reason for saying Region, and that is due to an expected more western flow. Placing bets on snow lover let downs- especially east of I64.

      Ironic CB’s main TV market demographic might get more of a glance- presuming this system pans out in the first place.

  40. Formerly from KY says:

    Looking at the 18z Nam brunt of snow hits Indiana and Northwestern Ohio.

  41. Sean says:

    Guys when commenting on certain model runs, could you all please link the said run in your comment. Thanks

  42. Bradc says:

    I’ll enjoy my rain to backside dusting here in knott county

  43. SHAAK says:

    Living in Bardstown here. Looks like there goes my weekend plans

  44. SpaceGhost says:

    WSAZ has mentioned nothing about this
    possible snowstorm aside from a chance
    If a light “wintry mix.” You would think there
    would be more consistency…

  45. Drew says:

    Prelude, with the 18z nam it is showing nothing for Ashland area. Does that mean based on that run we aren’t going to get anything??? Help me out. Is this model better or worse than previous runs for the Ashland area?

    • Prelude says:

      I like the NAM model the NAM model has a tendency to over exaggerate when it comes to precipitation at times but in general it’s a decent model. If you strictly go by the NAM model all of Kentucky will get in on the snow however the heaviest of snows as of now look to be western Ky north central Kentucky. That’s still subject to change.

    • Tom says:

      I live in the Huntington area. This was never supposed to be a major snowstorm for the Huntington area…too warm here and the cold air won’t arrive until the moisture is too far gone.

  46. Josh Vervoren says:

    Keep in mind tho guys!! 18z is normally an OFF run especially for the NAM!

  47. Sue(Flatwoods, ky) says:

    We are driving to Louisville from the Ashland area Fri around noon for the Harlem Globe trotters game. When is the snow suppose to start? We are staying all night Fri night, will we have a hard time getting back home Sat? I think we will pack for 2 nights just in case.

  48. C in BG says:

    We better be careful. We don`t want to be sensationalists. lol 🙂

  49. Virgil E. says:

    Team #FestiveFlakes

  50. BubbaG says:

    CB’s preparing a new post. Betting west I64 might need shovels and folks east of I64 might need brooms.

  51. SHAAK says:

    I miss the wishcasting from the SEKY Folks.

    • Troy says:

      I wish, I wish, I wish….but alas its not going to happen in SE KY. We are doomed for the rinse repeat rain with backside flurries and zero accumulation.

  52. Ruth says:

    Looks like SE Kentucky is going to get nothing, go figure…DARN IT!

  53. Tim says:

    Louisville Met just said, We`ll have rain changing to a LITTLE light snow Saturday. So if Louisville receives the above, then anyone east and south of here would get all rain.
    Sooooooooooo we`ll ust have to wait and see.

  54. JaredKY says:

    just like clockwork Eddie Munster from WDRB is too busy playing model police instead of concentrating on his own forecast

  55. Tom says:

    GFS at noon moved 100 miles west with the snow, GSF on the latest run goes another hundred miles west. Maybe it will correct later.

  56. Sean says:

    Thanks guys for posting the links above.

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