Winter Storm Tracker

Good Friday, everyone. It’s a Winter Storm ALERT today through early Saturday as a significant winter storm blasts the bluegrass state. As usual, I have the blog all set to track the ice and snow across our region.

Before we get to that, here are a few thoughts:

  • The temperature drop today is nothing short of astounding. As the front moves through, temps can drop 20-30 degrees in an hour or so.
  • Winds are going to be a big player through tonight, with gusts reaching 30mph or greater.
  • The transition from rain to freezing rain and sleet will work east, reaching eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Here’s hoping for more sleet than freezing rain.
  • The transition to snow takes place early today in the west, reaching central Kentucky this afternoon, then eastern Kentucky during the evening hours.
  • We are likely to see an area of enhanced snow setting up across the region from late afternoon into the evening. Areas under that may pick up 1″-2″ snows per hour or so.
  • Snowfall totals will depend on how quickly the transition from freezing rain and sleet to snow is where you live. The quicker the transition, the more snow. The slower, the less snow.

Here’s my current call…

Much of that won’t fall until the evening hours, so be patient. Also, understand the weather doesn’t follow lines or abide by what I think it should do. The lines and totals are a general estimate, 😉

I made that map Thursday afternoon, and it looks like the new European Model had the same idea…

Here’s the ice forecast from the Euro…

Again, let’s hope this is more sleet than freezing rain because that’s ugly.

The snows taper off from west to east tonight, with lingering flurries or a passing snow shower on Saturday. Winds are going to make the 20 degree highs feel like single digits.

Single digit lows show up on Sunday morning with below zero wind chills.

An arctic front moves in later Monday and will likely put down another moderate snowfall. That system can be all kinds of fun around here, with gusty winds producing blinding snows. Temps head toward zero behind this. Ouch.

I will try to update things later , but I will also be #sleevesup on WKYT-TV throughout the day and evening.

Here are your winter storm trackers…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Bardstown

I-65 MP 92.4
Elizabethtown

Louie B Nunn MP 3
Near Glasgow
Louie B Nunn MP 3

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

Winchester

Georgetown

Stay safe and have a Great Friday. Take care.


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144 Responses to Winter Storm Tracker

  1. Tim says:

    Bring it on!

  2. Dr WX says:

    Try to get some rest Chris and Tnx for all ur dedication and hard work! Doc is noticing on the RAP and other products are now starting to show a faster transition from rain/ ice/sleet to snow starting in the central ky areas which could boost our totals

  3. B H says:

    Great. Thanks Chris.

  4. Big Rob says:

    I’m probably off, if the gulf flow pumps it up…which it looks like it is…..45 ice and 6-10 in the metro….

  5. TennMark says:

    Owensboro down to 33 degrees. Memphis is 34.

  6. Dr WX says:

    I see the NWS has just finally added Fayette co in the Winter Storm Warning area

    • TennMark says:

      Davidson County TN (includes Nashville) is still under a Winter Weather Advisory, yet the neighboring counties to the west and north have Winter Storm Warnings.

      Hoping that our little generator won’t have to be used with the freezing rain.

      Nashville TN is 61 degrees. Clarksville TN just to the northwest has already dropped to 36.

  7. TennMark says:

    Unlike the winter weather we are about to experience, very different conditions were happening on this very day way back in 1890. On this day in history was a tornado outbreak……including several stronger twisters. One understandably might expect that the few stronger tornadoes this time of year mostly occur in the Deep South. But this January tornado outbreak happened in in our region. Indeed, one of the strongest of the January 12 1890 tornadoes was an F4 at Clinton KY; so unusual is this F4 is that it is one of only two January F4s that have occurred in the B-l-u-e-g-r-a-s-s State…..at least in recorded history.

    Some warm temperature records from January 1890 still stand today.
    http://kyweathercenter.com/?p=17151#comment-174614

    What few stronger wintertime tornadoes that have happened in both Tennessee and Kentucky tend to occur in the western sections of both states as their lower elevations may allow for slightly more heating and thus slightly increased lift and instability that can help spawn tornadoes.

  8. Tom says:

    In their 3:30 a.m. update Louisville nws states, The cold air
    appears to be a bit deeper than the models have progged. Upstream
    reports have been mainly sleet from eastern MO and SE IL with just a
    little freezing rain.
    Conclusion: snow totals have been bumped up some.

  9. Tim says:

    I’m under a flood warning and winter storm warning here in Athens ohio, streams and creeks running bank full in some locations

  10. Mike S says:

    My temperature dropped 14 degrees in about 30 minutes in Valley Station. At 4a, I was at 57. Now it’s 5a and my temperature is at 40….a 17 degree drop in the past hour.

  11. Tim says:

    Will the big dry slot fill in guys?

  12. Nasdaq says:

    cold air is progressing faster than modeled and the cold air is deeper.

  13. SHAAK says:

    This blog keeps eating my comments

  14. nancy says:

    For the last few days, there’s been over a hundred comments on this blog. Now its less that two dozen! Where did everybody go?!

  15. Lucy says:

    35 in Sellersburg, IN.

  16. Jimbo says:

    Last night, Charleston NWS had my area picking up 2-4 inches. This morning they changed to 1-2 ????

    • SK says:

      I saw that too and it didn’t make me happy… but I think this is a nowcasting event bc this storm is writing its own rules! 😉

  17. Lucy says:

    Snow will begin sooner than expected since temperatures have dropped quickly. Sellersburg, IN will soon be at 32, which was not expected until around 9:00 am.

  18. Emerson Biggins says:

    To the quitters out there, you know who you are, the ones who quit on winter 5 days into winter, you’ll always be a quitter to me.
    To everyone else, Bourbon and Bonfires in a snowstorm!
    To all stay safe, even you quitters.

  19. feederband says:

    The dry slot isn’t getting smaller. That will hurt totals.

    • Tim says:

      I’ve been watching that and it doesn’t look good for snow totals

    • c-BIV says:

      Relax…it’s literally not even 7am. This is going to fill in. Yes someone will see the dreaded dry slot at some point this evening. However, what you’re looking at right now is going to fill in as it spreads North.

      • Formerly from KY says:

        Your right people relax and let mother nature take control the big part of the snow will not fall till this afternoon.

  20. Robert says:

    Jim Caldwell said on the news this morning that the dry spots will fill in.

  21. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Thelma Lou is going to bed on this one for our part of the world, maybe an inch or a smidge more for Wayne County. To all those who get it…enjoy it, but be sure & stay safe. For all like us who don’t feel the snow love, better luck next time.

  22. Ecmwf says:

    Any snow/sleet/frz rain reports from out in wky

  23. JReedovo says:

    Temp dropped from 43 to 37 in about a 20 minute on the drive from NKY to Downtown Cincinnati.

  24. TeachLou says:

    33 here in Louisville now , and ‘feels like 23’ with light rain. Temps are dropping much faster. Hoping my husband comes home from his office soon.

  25. c-BIV says:

    Sleet is being reported, in J-town and Middletown in eastern JEFFERSON county, Louisville.

  26. C in BG says:

    The change over to FRZ Rain has happened in BG.

  27. Oh Hail No! says:

    Latest RAP model shows thumping for far western KY and TN. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rap/2018011211/021/sn10_acc.conus.png

  28. Dr WX says:

    Looks like the colder air is moving in well sooner then expected and it low pressure is slowing it progress abit it now all a matter of timing.as the front progresses through the state as what position all the ingredients will been in place as to what kind of “soup” everyone’s location will receive. Everyone be safe.

  29. c-BIV says:

    It’s already down to 32 at my house in Eastwood, which is right near Jefferson/Shelby county line. Sleet mixing in. Coming fast and furious. Good call on closing schools today.

  30. Oh Hail No! says:

    New 11z HRRR model only goes through midnight tonight. Very similar hit for West Ky and TN as the RAP. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018011211/018/sn10_acc.us_ov.png

  31. Winter lover says:

    Here in far Western,ky freezing rain has pelted our area and begin to transis to snow and temperature has drop to 20 degrees. The heavy band of snow is began to move in our neck of woods. Be safe and have a good day.

  32. Schroeder says:

    Right now the Temperature is thirty eight degrees and the barometer is rising here in central Kentucky. Snow is falling in western Kentucky ( don’t know if it is reaching the ground ) and is moving slowly to the north and slightly east. The low pressure is moving over central Kentucky and heading north / northeast which has cut off the precipitation in my area. This is the dry slot of the storm. Unless, the cold front slows down as it moves east and forms another low pressure system to our southeast and moves slowly north, this event is over.

    • Schroeder says:

      Thanks Chris for all your hard and tiring work on this winter event. It has been interesting and educational for all of us.

    • BubbaG says:

      Looks like snow or something frozen, based on the and the live cams for far west KY.

    • Schroeder says:

      Just checked out the southeast radar. In western Georgia, a strong disturbance is forming and moving towards the north / northwest. If this energy ( positive ) hooks up with the energy within the cold front ( negative ) we could be looking at a widespread major snowstorm.

      • TeacherMomof2 says:

        Will that combine with the one coming at us today or will it be with the one hes talking about for Monday/Tuesday?

        • Schroeder says:

          The storm for Monday or Tuesday is an Alberta Clipper which will miss us to the north. A clipper is just a reinforcement of cold dry air. What moisture it produces is about one to three inches of dry snow with a wind shift to the northwest. Our current storm is being held back by a large surface high in the Atlantic Ocean.

  33. Virgil E. says:

    Im still on Team #WhatCouldHaveBeen

    • BubbaG says:

      Until this pans out however it does, we do not know who is or isn’t on that same team. CB’s forecast was very reasonable, but is a forecast. I’m rooting for him and not NWS.

  34. Tim says:

    56 here with a ground temp of 31. Sitting in the dry slot and it will be interesting to see how it plays out. Tim from Athens

  35. SK says:

    I have a stupid question… live in WV near the KY border. We were predicted to not be below freezing until WELL past dark this evening. If it’s already dropping to freezing just a few hours west of us (2-3 hours) does this mean the changeover is really going to make it to us crazy earlier than forecast?

    • jlynn says:

      I was wondering the same thing.

    • Oh Hail No! says:

      I am wondering the same. It was predicted to be around 42 degrees at 8am in Cincinnati, but it is 34 degrees. Dropped from 50 @ 6am. Definitely interested to see how these temps peform the next couple hours!

  36. Joyce says:

    I just drove into lex and my car said 41 degrees at 8.15. Was it supposed to start falling this early?

  37. c-BIV says:

    Starting to sleet in Shelby county (Shelbyville).

  38. Msd says:

    The precip is extending far south. Is this the way it was forecasted?

  39. Rolo says:

    Lot dry air out there work into this low right now looking like a isolated snow right snow unless the precip blows back up.

  40. Andrew says:

    Cars and elevated surfaces icing up quick in Bowling Green.

  41. Nmarie50 says:

    I have a question. Weather Channel and NWS out of Charleston have the current temp where I live in NE Ky as 59 and 51. It’s 44 degrees here. It’s held there since 7am. I can’t help believe that this is going to have a big impact on accumulations, especially since both agencies have dropped our accumulation from 3 to 5 inches down to 1 to 3. Any thoughts?

    • SK says:

      Yeah I posted something similar above. I’m in WV near Huntington. About 30 min ago it was 56, and it’s already dropping. And yet on hourly forecast on TWC app (which o know is garbage) it says it will be 59 at 10am. I am watching Lexington’s temp on the app and it’s dropping by two degrees every 10 minutes or less. Its hard to believe there won’t be an impact on snow totals.

  42. Oh Hail No! says:

    New Nam shows big snow for West KY. This matches up with recent RAP and HRRR runs. I think most of the western 3rd of the state will get 6-12″. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018011212/030/snku_acc.us_ov.png

  43. Shawon says:

    FYI, the temperature sensor at Huntington, WV is having MAJOR issues. Don’t trust it. Yesterday it was reporting 90 degrees at one point…

    It’s too bad there are no Kentucky Mesonet stations in Northeast Kentucky.

  44. Robert says:

    Most recent NAM calling for maybe an inch in Lexington. This one may be over before it begins.

    • c-BIV says:

      GFS, EURO, NAM, and Canadian all useless now at this point. It’s day of, so the HRRR, and RPM high res in house models, along with now casting are the best tools. Throw the others out the door.

  45. Cold Rain says:

    Reading some of NWS out of Tenn. last night..They mention the dreaded dry slot knocking down totals..So i would say not looking good for Southern and Southeast Ky..But don’t think we were ever in the game to begin with..

  46. MelT says:

    Can’t wait for Monday!

  47. corey says:

    Looks like there is.tons of dry.air embedded in this.storm…not a good thing

  48. Jon says:

    Time to quit looking at models especially the nam and just watch the radar

  49. Formerly from KY says:

    HRRR still showing decent 4-6 inches of snow fall for central Kentucky.

  50. Ashlyn says:

    This radar isn’t giving me much hope for taking my little girl out in the snow. And temps are still hanging touch in the Morehead area. 🙁

  51. Mike S says:

    Studying the RAP model at 925mb and 850mb, any rain falling near Louisville with surface temps now below freezing should begin transitioning to mostly sleet unless that nose of warm air keeps hanging tough. Sleet is falling not too far away…
    Uh, just checked outside. I am now getting sleet at 30 degrees. Hopefully, the sleet stays that way until changing over to snow later.

  52. Formerly from KY says:

    RAP model showing same 4-6 inches with spotty 8 inches in North Central Kentucky.

  53. Oh Hail No! says:

    13z HRRRhttp://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018011213/018/snku_acc.us_ov.png

  54. BigLeffler says:

    It’s not even 10 in the morning and most of the snow won’t fall until evening. You guys gotta chill the crap out.

  55. gman says:

    Freezing rain, sleet, and snow will be on the increase through out the day.
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0022.html

  56. Mike S says:

    Keeping an eye on Paducah camera above. A heavy burst of snow looks to affect that region over the next hour or two, probably up to 3″ just from that. Snow line appears in Owensboro, maybe a little east by now.

  57. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Western KY under a sleet siege right now! Piling up and hoping for transition to snow at any time. Rodger in Dodger

  58. SK says:

    NWS in Charleston just modified the WAA in my area (near Huntington) to slightly up the snow totals. TWC just increased the totals as well from 1-3 to 3-5 inches. I guess time will tell but it sure is fun to have something to track!

  59. Bradc says:

    Sitting at 55 here in knott county still sticking by my inch prediction for here

  60. Tom says:

    We in NE Ky like the new gfs.

  61. Mike S says:

    2-4″ sleet in Cape Girardeau county in Missouri…2″ sleet in Murray KY

  62. Mark in Marion says:

    Sleet falling in sheet waves in northern Marion County.

  63. Cindy B says:

    Thank you Chris! Temps in Northern Jackson County Ohio are dropping like a rock.

  64. Oborowx says:

    It has been sleeting in Owensboro since 2am. We have an inch of just sleet! No snow at all yet. Any idea when this may change to snow?

  65. BubbaG says:

    Wondering how much sleet might cut totals down for some areas. Still, better than ice whatever the case 🙂

  66. Terry says:

    Surged to 66 in Harlan at 11:00 before the rain which started again 5 minutes ago. I had to switch the air on for just a few minutes! Here comes the change:)

    • Troy says:

      Temp is actually rising in Middlesboro Terry. Couple hours ago it was 58 and has risen to 63! NWS says up to an inch for us, Chris’ map says 1-3. I say a dusting at most for you and I as we have seen this exact scenario far too many times. Guessing you agree. lol

  67. Rodger in Dodger says:

    SNOW now in western KY near Henderson and falling at a good clip! Hoping for at least four inches with southern stream still pumping. Rodger in Dodger

  68. OhHailNo! says:

    Temp dropped 20 degrees in a couple hours time down to 33 in Covington. Been stuck around 33 degrees with rain and drizzle for 3 hours now. Ugh. Here is the latest 15z HRRR Model. It goes up to 4am Eastern Time. http://maps2.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2018011215/018/sn10_acc.us_ov.png

  69. Mike S says:

    NWS Louisville cutting back snow totals and Brian Goode Wave3 Louisville likewise, 2-4″ and 1-4″ respectively (this is for Louisville). Sleet accumulation and dry slot to blame. Yet, deformation band can still produce efficient accumulation.

    • Allen says:

      Said before, saying it again – dang dry slot! Why can’t they forecast that?
      From NWS
      “So, with all this in mind, have lowered snow totals a little from a
      general 5 inch or so swath to a 2-4 inch swath, but still could see
      isolated higher amounts in the most persistent part of the
      deformation band.”
      Come on deformation band, my all time favorite! ; )

      • Debbie says:

        Actually, Allen, I did see something yesterday (but I forgot on whose site?! I’m old..forgive me!)about a possible dry slot forming SOMEWHERE in the forecast area, but they were uncertain as to where it would be. I said it would be in Nelson Co. if anywhere, and sure enough…it’s heeerrrre!!! lol!

  70. Rolo says:

    True shape comma low now u can see form on the radar with moisture stream to south. So now we watch the area and the backside of e precip as it moves out to the east. The low starts to move. That said if you get in the swath of the path of the back side u going get some impressive snowfall rates. it’s going be interesting to watch how the swath moves as we go thru the day and nite and how it strengthens or weakens. Enjoy folks, midday call for viewing area snow Bailey 4-8 inch swath might need be up on high in in spots, yea up I said line from Danville NEast to Ashland could be a honey hole for a 2in per hour rate for few hours for little while. Now any jog in movement by low can move that line. I think the Low not even crank up yet. So my area viewing/blog area right map is 4-10 that’s low end from ky tenn border to high end up to lex east Ne To Ashland.

  71. Winter lover says:

    Snowing hard here in far Western, ky

  72. Nolabrn says:

    Wow, I am new to this site and new to lex. Nola, transplant. I thought watching and predicting tropical systems was fun and erratic. This being my first winter storm and first time I will probably see frozen precipitation fall is exciting. I am glad I found this site and a good meteorologist. We had a few great ones in New Orleans.

  73. Debbie says:

    Frz Rn here in Bardstown, icicles forming on picnic table, bird feeders, garden statues, etc., pavement still just wet, but we are now in that dreaded dry slot, so am hoping the snow just out to our W/SW will fill in efficiently to get rid of that obstacle!

  74. Drew says:

    How much will Ashland get?

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