Active Winter Pattern Continues

Good Monday, everyone. As light snow and snow squalls diminish this morning, we are focusing on another system working into Kentucky over the next few days. This will likely set the fence up somewhere across the region, giving us the potential for rain, freezing rain and snow.

Our morning snow showers slowly wind down across eastern Kentucky, but sick conditions remain. Watch for icy and snow covered roads in several areas this morning.

Another light snow and flurry maker approaches the state from the west tonight, bringing the potential for a small accumulation for some. That looks to be across the northern half of the state. Small being the key word.

The next system is loaded with moisture and arrives late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Temperatures are going to be within a few degrees of the freezing mark, making for a tough call on where the rain, freezing rain and snow lines set up.

The current GFS shows a decent ice potential…

It’s also farther south with the snow potential, bringing the chance into northern Kentucky…

The GFS Ensembles also show the frozen precipitation chances into the bluegrass state…

The Canadian Model continues to run just a little farther south with the Freezing rain and snow…

Snow

Freezing Rain

The European Model also shows a swatch of freezing rain setting up along and south of the Ohio River…

I will put out a ‘best chance’ map with my next update.

Make it a good one and take care.


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60 Responses to Active Winter Pattern Continues

  1. AC says:

    The Canadian is showing an even broader area of ice coverage on the latest runs, but the higher totals are further south into central KY. This solution brings an ice to snow situation for the northern third of the state.

    After seeing multiple model runs, it’s a pretty safe bet to say there will be, at minimum, light icing in parts of the forecast area.

    It is interesting to note at this time that both models have shifted their forecasts slightly south of their previous run. There has also been excellent model to model continuity over several runs for the past several days with little wavering in their placement of the storm itself.

    This one bears watching with caution.

    • AC says:

      Chris, in response to your NWS Winter Weather Advisory—there used to be a “Travel Advisory” for these types of situations…but for whatever reason, they got rid of it.

      I don’t think the term “winter weather” is specific enough and it’s far too general. The winter weather advisory is issued for a dusting or a couple of inches….taking into account nothing for travel issues…because people aren’t generally going to read the entire description.

      • Dr WX says:

        AC, I whole heartily agree. Growing up, a travelers advisory was common place when conditions presented a danger of driving on public roads or walking on sidewalks, was thinking about that the other night that I hadn’t heard that particular advisory in several years.Winter weather advisory is a rather broad term and not to specific.

  2. Dr WX says:

    Thanks Chris, Hope it’s minor and certainly nothing like the past big ice storms we had in the central ky area! But the ingredients are certainly there. This time I’m hoping for plain ol rain. Very slick out tonight in Fayette county everyone be safe on your morning commute.

  3. TennMark says:

    Hard to believe that it has really been 10 years since the Super Tuesday tornado outbreak of Feb 5-6 2008. Kentucky and especially Tennessee felt the wrath of these storms along with other states.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Super_Tuesday_tornado_outbreak

    It will be very interesting to see how this spring’s severe wx season will evolve. A moderate La Nina persists which on average increases the odds of severe wx in our area, although La Nina is expected to wane further into the spring. However, it’s noteworthy that some La Nina years have been duds for our area, and some El Nino and neutral years have had active tornado seasons for KY and TN including 1998.

    Also, Gulf water temperatures are generally below average….especially off the Texas coast. Thus there could be slightly less moisture and instability from the Gulf to fuel tornadoes until the Gulf warms up later in the spring….somewhat like what happened in early 2010.

  4. Formerly from KY says:

    As with everyone else I would rather have rain than ice.

  5. Mike S says:

    As of this morning, Lexington has caught up to its average for snowfall for this date. At 7.5″ since the beginning of the snow season, they are on pace to achieve its total seasonal average of 13.0″, again based on the snow year that runs from July 1 through June 30. Other locations are running above average right now include Paducah and Bowling Green.
    Just think, 20 yrs ago, we were still scratching our heads as a freak snow event coming from the east blankets much of our region with double-digit amounts.

  6. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, I’m not buying the rain or the ice. This is going to be a widespread snow event. Everything is coming together for several inches of snow to fall in a short period of time state wide. This is the best set up for a major snow event I have seen this winter. Remember February is our snowiest month along with March. Have a great day everyone.

    • Schroeder says:

      Watch out for black ice this morning, much more dangerous than freezing rain. An advisory has been issued for my county of Taylor.

    • Formerly from KY says:

      I think the set up is borderline with more rain than snow to much warm air to present a heavy snow event at this time. Maybe backside flurries or light snow.

    • Prelude says:

      Schroeder you gotta look at the thermal profiles which as of now supports more freezing rain with some snow and sleet. Freezing rain looks to be the biggest concern especially areas north of the parkways.

    • TeacherMomOf2 says:

      Any chance we might get some snow out of this one here in Northeast Tennessee?

      • Formerly from KY says:

        Very little snow at this time mainly a rain event at this time.

      • Schroeder says:

        Yes, I would think so, with this system.

      • Schroeder says:

        Answer for TeacherMomof 2: Yes I would think so, with this system.

        • JHutch says:

          Little chance of snow with this system, poster above is not basing their reply off of anything factual.

          • Prelude says:

            Schroeder apparently has forgotten to take his meds this morning this happens with Schroeder from time to time. You can always tell, Schroeder will come up with the most off the wall bogus weather theories imaginable.

        • TeacherMomof2 says:

          Thank you! I am crossing my fingers that you are right. It was a pleasant surprise yesterday morning to wake up to more snow than we have seen all winter. It was not forecasted to be much more than a dusting. We really need to close for sickness but I’d take a few snow days if we could just get some snow this way. You are my favorite person today, Shroeder.

    • snowrunner says:

      Fingers toes legs arms eyes. All crossed hoping you are right! My birthday snow (last Friday) tanked.

      • snowrunner says:

        That was supposed to attach to Shroeder’s post that he thinks this will be all snow!!!

        • Prelude says:

          You can cross your heart your legs you can cross the street 15 times with your eyes being crossed eye and whatever faith you have in Schroeder being right you will be 100% guaranteed disappointed.

  7. which way is the wind blowing says:

    I hope the system continue its jog to the south.

  8. David in Gtown says:

    The late arriving advisory from the NWS states snow would move out overnight, as I sit here watching snow fall at 8:15 AM. The state road department was asleep at the wheel again with I 75 not treated for the third time this winter in Scott County. Doesn’t help the “official” forecast called for scattered flurries at a 20% chance last night.

  9. Bradc says:

    Didn’t get anything here in knott co overnight

  10. nasdaq says:

    Sadly, Snow hopes for the near future look grim, there will be plenty of rain though

  11. Andy Rose says:

    Nothing here except what rain fell yesterday froze.

  12. Joey says:

    ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN…. Where? All we’re getting in Berea is rain that is freezing by late morning. Rain rain rain lol blah blah blah haha

    • Matt says:

      Um well it is in fact winter and it’s currently one storm right after another so that would be an active winter pattern, even though it’s resulting in very little snow.

      • Joey says:

        I agree it’s an active weather pattern and its winter… but when I think of an active weather in winter I think of snow, not rain. Yes though technically you’re right haha Just a guy wanting some snow lol

      • BubbaG says:

        Oh, so we are playing semantics games. Go it! Perhaps a better term is “winter-like” 🙂

  13. SnowLover13 says:

    How does it look for Columbia, KY?? WBKO in Bowling Green says 100% rain and that’s it:(

  14. Formerly from KY says:

    There could be some flooding concerns with this storm.

  15. Schroeder says:

    Read my post, there is not going to be any freezing rain all snow state wide. I back this at 100% chance.

    • bgbecky says:

      This is interesting Schroeder…working on reverse psychology today?!?

    • Prelude says:

      Schroeder you go right ahead and think that and I’ll think reality. There is zero support of any kind supporting what your saying, ZERO!!! Quit making false statements!!! #Fake News #Sensationalism

      • Prelude says:

        It might be all snow in southern Indiana but in Kentucky a totally different story and that is just a simple fact.

        • Prelude says:

          So Schroeder do what you and think up some weird concoction by Wednesday on why you were wrong. Most will get rain/freezing rain with a touch of sleet and snow. I’m sure your excuse will be something crazy about the water vapor loop or the price of fuel going up, therefore that caused a unexpected heat island effect statewide which ultimately caused the snow never to materialize. Smh

    • BubbaG says:

      You be patronizing the snow fans here, since NO WAY you believe that. If you do, I would suggest staying away from firearms or vehicles for a few days 😉

    • Ralph says:

      Thanks Schroeder!

    • Troy says:

      Schroeder, buddy, reading your posts will not make delusions come true. There is absolutely no weather data to support your ramblings from any source on earth and there is near zero chance of this system becoming a state wide snow maker. Seriously, just stop.

  16. Bernard P. Fife says:

    A week or maybe more ago we saw several maps that appeared to show the potential for well below normal temperatures for several days in this part of the world. What happened? Did some ingredients not come into play properly?

  17. BubbaG says:

    North of Kentucky river might get smacked with ice. Yes Jeff, I’m a broken record 😉

  18. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Latest models show nasty ice totals along the Ohio River. Hoping for a colder, snowy trend today. Rodger in Dodger

  19. BubbaG says:

    CB has yet to put us in a threat and this is less than two days out. Seems this might be more north than expected last night. If ice, seems we would already be in threat mode by now. To near quot the ManBearBig: This blog is playing on your fears!!!! 🙂 😉

  20. Cold Rain says:

    Funny when lots of moisture start to arrive there’s no cold air around..Anyways gonna warm up nicely towards end of the work week according to the GFS..Lets hope it’s right..

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