More Winter Weather On The Way

Good afternoon, folks. I’m tracking two more winter weather systems into the bluegrass state over the next few days. One is due in later tonight, with the second system having more of an icy look late Tuesday and early Wednesday.

Tonight’s system is a light snow maker, especially across the northern half of the state. Some of this may sneak into the east by early Tuesday. Light is the key word here, with some LIGHT accumulations a possibility for some. That shows up on the NAM…

Some slick spots may develop on areas roads overnight.

After a break in the action on Tuesday, our next system plows toward the region late in the day and takes us into Wednesday. This will have a lot of moisture with it and that encounters temps near the freezing mark. For the past week, I’ve talked about the precipitation fence setting up on us, and here it comes.

The potential is there for a period of freezing rain setting up from southwest to northeast across Kentucky. This may be heavy enough to cause a few issues to develop. Exactly where this setups up may be a game time decision, but here’s a first look at the threat…

Some snow may also try to mix in, too. If I get more confident of .25″ or greater ice accumulation showing up, a Winter Storm THREAT will kick in. I’m not there just yet.

Here’s how the GFS sees it…

You can see the snow showing up a little better as the front swings through.

The Canadian is similar…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Another blog update will come your way this evening.

Have a good one and take care.

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42 Responses to More Winter Weather On The Way

  1. BubbaG says:

    Thanks CB! Hopefully remains more north (no offense to north of I64 folks). Was looking more like north of Kentucky river last night had a shot of getting smacked. Fencetucky does not want the air to be a few degrees colder, since could be like almost a decade ago.

  2. B H says:

    Boy I’m dead center in that ice map.

  3. Drew says:

    All rain.. even on the i64 corridor. Mark it down.

  4. Troy says:

    On a good note, looks as though our nearly 3 week streak of near total grey, gloomy, cloud cover has broken this morning (in my area) It’s still cold but it’s notable and I’ll take it.

  5. Bobt says:

    Getting closer to spring and I can’t wait. Not so AccuWeather has daytime highs of 50+ for 14 days of what is left in February. That looks really good after a pretty much cold and snowless January for much of the state.

  6. brandon says:

    i think this storm could be more widespread with frozen precip. the nws seems to overdo temps for me. they say its 30 but my car reads 23. yesterday they said 45 and i went to the store and my car read 38. im not an expert but i notice a lot tge temps are colder than many weather station readings.

    • TeacherMomof2 says:

      I agree. Accuweather is showing possible floods for my area Wednesday with a “rapid freeze up” overnight. That sounds like an icy mess. Our temperatures were supposed to reach 44 yesterday and the high ended up being 41.

  7. Snowplease says:

    Ugh….Let us just move on to spring! So tired of false alarms and cold to warm weather LOL! Please think spring Chris.

  8. bjenks says:

    Well even if this storm or the weekend, rain to snow event, does not pan out for us snow lovers we still have 45 days left of winter and more than half of that should be below normal for most of the east. After these couple of warm to cold shots the cold will move back in for the latter part of Feb into March with the chances of a couple good snow storms for our region. Thanks for the update CB. Looking forward to your next update on the possible ice event. Looks to be a non-snow event anyhow as not much precip will be moving into the cold layers.

  9. Mike S says:

    Well, it’s been over an hour. Earlier, I wanted someone to give me a thermal profile for freezing rain, since some people know what thermal profiles are. I would really like to hear it from anyone besides CB. And don’t give us the technical definition. Please.

    • Cold Rain says:

      You would probably need to look at sounding data to determine if freezing rain is possible..I would probably call it temperature profile instead of thermal..Some may not know but zrr starts out as snow before hitting the surface..

  10. Schroeder says:

    Still calling for heavy snow.

  11. AC says:

    I don’t know a technical definition for a thermal profile for freezing rain and only loosely used the term yesterday in observing the Canadian’s model output, as I was wondering if it has a good handle on the forecasted temperature.

    I’m a-s-s-uming a thermal profile for freezing rain would be something to do with specific temperatures necessary at certain heights in the vertical space (column) to support ice crystals at the upper levels, warmer temperatures below that and all the way down to just at the surface, where they are just at or below freezing for it to freeze on contact. We’re talking measured in kilofeet (a-s-s-umed) for measurement. I’m also a-s-s-uming good soundings are necessary to obtain the most accurate information prior to storm onset.

    Apologies for all the hyphenations to deal with this pesky filtering.

    • BubbaG says:

      More to do with how the warm air and cold mix. You end up with warm air sandwiched between upper level cold and surface level cold. Falls as rain and freezes. This in turn creates convective freezing that feeds the ice demons!

  12. Joyce says:

    When does the next models come out?

  13. LOUTeach says:

    Thanks for the updates CB! I’m so not done with winter yet, loving the sunshine today though! I’d sure rather have heavy snow, or heavy cold rain here in the ‘ville than heavy freezing rain. We shall see what happens I suppose.

  14. SpaceGhost says:

    WSAZ is touting an all-rain event…

  15. jackson says:

    Rivers are already a little high in Eastern KY, atleast in my area, and with more heavy rain on the way it could get interesting in some areas.

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