Good Thursday, everyone. It’s a full blown Pot Of Chili ALERT for the bluegrass state. We have a serious blast of fall blowing into the state today and this is the first in a series of very chilly fall cold shots. These shots are more typical of early November than the middle of October. It’s a far cry from the summer start to the month and there’s even the chance for winter weather not too far from us.

Let’s begin with today’s front as it rolls through the region early on. This is bringing some very heavy rains to the southeastern Kentucky, where we will need to be on guard for some local high water issues early on…

Clearing skies take over from west to east from late morning through the afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds are blow chilly air into town. Many areas spend the bulk of the afternoon in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Temps tonight will tank under a clear sky. Temps will likely drop into the mid and upper 30s for several areas to begin Friday…

NAM

HI RES NAM

A kiss of frost is possible Friday morning. Highs on Friday will generally range I the middle 50s with clouds increasing during the afternoon and evening. Those clouds are being pushed by a weak disturbance crossing the region very quickly Friday night. This may produce a few chilly showers as it zips through.

The NAM has been showing some flakes trying to mix in just to our north, but the late Wednesday evening run tried to take that action a little farther south…

That’s probably not going to happen, but it’s crazy to see for this early in the season and coming off the summer temps we’ve been having.

Temps behind this may drop into the 30s again by Saturday morning, with highs in the 50s on Saturday. The NAM is running a little colder for highs…

The next system racing in for Sunday is actually a remnant low from Hurricane Sergio in the Pacific. Chilly rains will increase on Sunday and should carry us into Monday. Here’s how the Canadian sees it…

The Canadian leaves us with leaves in the 20s behind that system.

The GFS brings that initial system through here, then follows it up with a couple of overrunning systems into the first half of next week…

That could be a few days where temps struggle to get to 50 degrees for highs. That same setup a month or two from now would be interesting. 🙂

I may throw you another update later today, so check back. Until then, have a good one and take care.