Pot Of Chili ALERT

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s a full blown Pot Of Chili ALERT for the bluegrass state. We have a serious blast of fall blowing into the state today and this is the first in a series of very chilly fall cold shots. These shots are more typical of early November than the middle of October. It’s a far cry from the summer start to the month and there’s even the chance for winter weather not too far from us.

Let’s begin with today’s front as it rolls through the region early on. This is bringing some very heavy rains to the southeastern Kentucky, where we will need to be on guard for some local high water issues early on…

Clearing skies take over from west to east from late morning through the afternoon. Gusty northwesterly winds are blow chilly air into town. Many areas spend the bulk of the afternoon in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Temps tonight will tank under a clear sky. Temps will likely drop into the mid and upper 30s for several areas to begin Friday…

NAM

HI RES NAM

A kiss of frost is possible Friday morning. Highs on Friday will generally range I the middle 50s with clouds increasing during the afternoon and evening. Those clouds are being pushed by a weak disturbance crossing the region very quickly Friday night. This may produce a few chilly showers as it zips through.

The NAM has been showing some flakes trying to mix in just to our north, but the late Wednesday evening run tried to take that action a little farther south…

That’s probably not going to happen, but it’s crazy to see for this early in the season and coming off the summer temps we’ve been having.

Temps behind this may drop into the 30s again by Saturday morning, with highs in the 50s on Saturday. The NAM is running a little colder for highs…

The next system racing in for Sunday is actually a remnant low from Hurricane Sergio in the Pacific. Chilly rains will increase on Sunday and should carry us into Monday. Here’s how the Canadian sees it…

The Canadian leaves us with leaves in the 20s behind that system.

The GFS brings that initial system through here, then follows it up with a couple of overrunning systems into the first half of next week…

That could be a few days where temps struggle to get to 50 degrees for highs. That same setup a month or two from now would be interesting. 🙂

I may throw you another update later today, so check back. Until then, have a good one and take care.


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51 Responses to Pot Of Chili ALERT

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Chili is good any time of the year, but I am glad that fall is finally coming.

  2. Terry says:

    Absolutely pouring from Michael’s outer rain bands here in Harlan. I will post a total late today when it is over.

    First Pot of Chili Alert is late but better than never…..YIPPIE!!!!

  3. B says:

    You know, this could be due to a solar minimum we are entering. The sun seems to be entering a grand minimum and will potentially bring in colder temperatures. Also volcanic activity is increasing which also comes with a decrease in solar activity. Thhis all could lead to colder winters (some scientists think we will enter anothe mini ice age for some decades)

    • winter lover says:

      B, I can remember back in the 60’s that the scientists were saying that the earth was entering another ice age and did had some cold winters follow up in the 60’s and the late 70’s. we have not experience any type of winters that happen in the late 70’s. Only time will tell.

      • Schroeder says:

        What happened in the Autumn of 1976 can easily be explained. Lets let that go and focus on this Autumn and Winter. After a very cloudy and wet summer we are now entering a more ” Fall like ” pattern ? But after checking the North Atlantic Oscillation it is currently in the low positive phase and is forecast to stay positive through the rest of the month which means we will have warm ups and short cool downs.

      • B says:

        I really like keeping up with solar activity and other varisbles and its possible correlation to Earths climate. During the 60s and 70s solar activity was low than increased in the 80s-2000s before take another turn downward. Right now we are currently in the lowest activity for at least 100 years. I moved to ky in 08 and remember one morning it hit 6 degrees and people talked about it was the coldest morning in years. Well, here in the last 5 years we have hit 0 to -10 several times each winter.

    • Schroeder says:

      Yes, we are in between two Ice Ages according to scientist, but this debate has been going on for years. Currently, the oceans are warming and I believe this is due to volcanic activity on the oceans’s floor which causes a change of events with the climate and an increase in Earthquake activity.

  4. Jamie says:

    “Leaves in the 20s” – yeah… all the leaves that will fall when the trees get wet will end up in the 20s just like the temps.

  5. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Been waiting for this weather since Labor Day! LOL Since we’re making chili, anyone have a secret ingredient they’d like to share?Sometimes Thelma Lou adds mushrooms in her chili.

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. I think I brought some long pants with me. Sounds like I may need to wear some home! We did thirds fewxuesrs back when coming home from vacation. Left our time share with it 87 degree

  7. Coffeelady says:

    Sorry bout that. Arrived home to 51 and rain! Not good. Tats when we learned to bring long pants! Have a great Day everyone.

  8. Schroeder says:

    Hurricane Michael was very interesting to track. The National Hurricane Center did a good job on where landfall would be. It’s way to sad to see all the damage and I heard there was one fatality from a tree falling on a home. As for my county we received only 0.03 ” inches of rainfall. On my morning walk I notice the air still has that “sticky” feel to it, but there is a nice breeze from the northerly direction.

  9. BubbaG says:

    “A kiss of frost”, hah! That would be a good book or movie title for a holiday, or thriller. Works good either way: A Kiss of Frost.

  10. Mike S says:

    Appreciable rainfall for eastern Kentucky with a few area Mesonet sites now over 1″ and a bit more to go.
    I was away for the past week, so CB may have already mentioned this, but September precipitation came in at 3rd wettest statewide. However, the Bluegrs divisional region and the Eastern divisional region were record wettest.

  11. Virgil E says:

    My wife and I just enjoyed our Chili with Rabbit and Camel ground meat in it.

  12. Mike S says:

    National snow cover highest coverage for this date since 2009.

  13. CAMPINGMOMMA says:

    Can’t wait to pull the camper out of the driveway Friday morning!

  14. Schroeder says:

    I’m thinking now that with the warmer Gulf along with the warmer Atlantic that this is going to have a moderating effect on temperatures this Fall and Winter in the Ohio Valley. In years this occurred 1965, 1966, 1968, 1974, 1975 and 1982 ( the year with the strongest El Nino event. )

  15. Cold-Rain says:

    Might as well throw in some winter talk with our pot of chilli…the new seasonal UKMET looks good..Agrees with the euro..Below normal temps and above precip..Like the look out west also..

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

  16. Schroeder says:

    If you really want a cold and very snowy winter, the prefect set up would be to have a strong negative La Nina and a strong positive El Nino the two actions would combine in the southern Rockies and move into the western Gulf and head north northeast and intensify into a raging blizzard. Last time this happened was in January 1978. I don’t see this ever happening again in my lifetime. I guess if you live in the Ohio Valley one gets to see at lease one blizzard in their lifetime. I’m just glad I made that snowman a couple of years back and took a picture of it to hang on the wall every Christmas. I don’t believe there is much of a chance for a major snowstorm for the upcoming late Fall and Winter. The Gulf and the Atlantic as well as the Pacific surface sea temperatures are way too warm. #climatechange

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