Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. A front is draped across the region and is bringing a healthy temperature gradient with it. As this boundary slows down and slowly goes back north, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are going to crank along and south of it. This is a setup that is likely to throw down a lot of rain over the next few days.

This front is already touching off some scattered action this afternoon. As we head into the evening, watch for showers and storms to increase…

The heaviest rains come Wednesday through Thursday, leading to the potential for flooding issues to develop. The WPC continues to include the region in the risk area…

The trend of the models is to sink a bit south with the highest rain totals. Notice how the GFS is more widespread with the 2″-5″ rains…

Given the fact that thunderstorms are in the mix, locally higher amounts will certainly be possible. Those numbers would be enough to cause high water issues in many areas.

Speaking of thunderstorms, there’s the chance for a few strong to severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of central and western Kentucky in the Marginal Risk for severe storms on Wednesday…

Thursday is another day that could spawn a few strong or severe storms as our front blasts in from the west. Temps ahead of this front may hit 70-75 in the central and east, with a MAJOR temp crash coming behind the front….

From 70 to the teens… That sounds about right!

A quick-hitting band of light snow is possible as temps crash Thursday night and early Friday.

I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4pm and here on KWC this evening. Have a good one and take care.

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14 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. Lisa Jones says:

    Happy national weatherman day Chris Bailey ❄⚡☔

  2. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks Chris. Got my waders out and ready I reckon. Rain is gonna rain no after what but we sure do not need the amounts you are showing! Have a good afternoon all and once again Happy Weatherperrsons Day Chris!

  3. Schroeder says:

    Happy Weatherpersons Day to Meteorologist Chris Bailey and all those’s who are in the field of Meteorology and all the trained weather spotters. Thanks for keeping us safe by alerting us to potential severe weather. Friends always !

  4. Bobt says:

    Here in my backyard the last two years we have averaged around 20 days of 50 degree plus days in February. This year we look to start out with at least 7 straight days of 50+. I can handle a few days of snow and cold if the majority of the days starting in February are 50+. If that is a backloaded winter then I will take it. Old man winter is on his way out.

  5. Jimbo says:

    At least we haven’t had to look at any of those two week out total snowfall maps. Those were probably the worst model forecasts out of all.

    • SkiWi says:

      Don’t look at Joe Bastardis page. He’s had a major snow storm for us since New Year. The models don’t miss with the rain forecast.

      • Jimbo says:

        Looks like Bastardi’s Winter forecast was a total bust. He was comparing this year to 77/78. Accuweather and the NWS said above normal temps with rain. Looks like a clear winner in the Winter predictions.

        • AC says:

          If you’re a firm believer in the average temperatures across the world going up every year, the NWS can ride the “record heat” train all the way up to 2050 and will almost always be right.

          It’s not that hard to forecast warmer than average temperatures these days, and be correct more than half the time.

          I’m glad there’s some warmth right now–but all the rain we’re getting is really not what we need.

        • Troy says:

          Jimbo, to be fair, every fall Bastardi starts with that 76-77 / 77-78 garbage and those wonderful analogs always back up his thoughts without a doubt (in his mind only), until they don’t! lol I drop in on Weatherbell on a regular basis when I feel the need for a good chuckle.

  6. Happy Weatherpersons Day Chris Bailey. You Do A good job alerting us on Severe Weather & Winter Weather.

  7. Farmer 43 says:

    I would like to say something about record warm temperatures they are skewed why do I say that it is a lot easier to break record warm temperatures because of urban sprawl records from the 1800s are definitely respectable because their wasn’t a house or asphalt everywhere you look like there is today Louisville international is always 5 to 10 degrees than where I live in rural area record highs can be broken easier record lows are harder to break

  8. KC says:

    Happy Weather Person Day, Chris Bailey! You’re #1 in my book!

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