Winter Shows Some Fight By The Weekend

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s a much colder and drier day taking shape across the bluegrass state as our active pattern takes a short break. This little break only lasts into Thursday then returns and tries to bring Old Man Winter with it. It’s a theme similar to last year… The closer we get to spring, the more it looks like winter.

Temps today range from the upper 30s to middle 40s with skies becoming partly sunny.

Valentine’s Day will feature temps spiking into the 50s with clouds increasing and some showers arriving by evening. Those showers are along and ahead of a cold front dropping into the region from the northwest. The air coming in behind this front will be much colder as it sends our storm track farther south.

That means the systems moving in for the weekend could put our region in the winter weather zone. The first arrives late Friday into early Saturday and may lay down a swath of accumulating snow for some. The system behind that could also bring rain and some snow by Sunday…

With so many systems so close together, some fairly steep model changes are likely to show up from run to run.

Looking farther down the road on the long range European through the final days of March, we find a colder than normal setup for much of the country…

At the same time, we see above normal precipitation in our region…

The model says the cold and the precipitation hook up on occasion to produce snow, similar to last year…

In full disclosure… I’m pulling for spring! #teamspring

I will have another update later. Enjoy the day and take care.

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37 Responses to Winter Shows Some Fight By The Weekend

  1. BH says:

    I don’t even want to hear about snow after February. Want to see more nice warm and dry days ahead. Hope this cold air doesn’t pan out for March. Just tired of the up and down rainy weather pattern.

    • Terry says:

      This winter and weather in general has been so bad locally that even SnowHaters are willing to take snow over rain at this point , if we cant have warm and dry that is. AWFUL!


  2. Terry says:

    I am sorry to be negative, but I see a lot if rain coming to far southern/SE KY for at least the next few systems. Just no cold air down here yet but maybe after the oscillations align beyond the dreaded next week cliche!

    Speaking of the “R” WORD, here is my staggering stats by the numbers:

    1.74 in (yesterday)
    2.44 in (event total since Sunday now final)
    5.44 in (February total–already above average on the month)
    10.76 in (2019 Annual-to-date)
    18.43 in (Meteorological Winter-to-date)

  3. Jimbo says:

    Next three systems for my area will be rain and a few backside flurries at best. Temps everyday predicted to be at least 40, no snow falling in those temps.

  4. Bobt says:

    All I can see for the southern part of the state is cooler than normal temperature and lots of rain. I would be all for no snow and dry weather instead of all this rain. The only thing they are going to get right is the precipitation amounts and that is not a hard one to get right in this area.
    A person could put out a forecast for rain in the state on a daily basis and be right about 75% of the time.

    I highly doubt that we can get enough cold air in here to get multiple good snows from here on out. It might be cooler than normal but average highs hit 50 in the southern part of the state in just a few days. Hard to fight with that the rest of the way. Takes the perfect setup .

  5. MarkLex says:

    I remember growing up…..anytime the West coast was getting cold/snow……..we NEVER had snow storms. When the west was warm, we would always get at least one or two good storms. I just saw a headline that Seattle-Tacoma has had 20 inches of snow so far in Feb……the most in five decades. And my first thought was “no wonder we haven’t had much of a winter”….. When it’s 60F in Seattle, we get bitter cold and snow here. I know there are many more variables but that’s usually a good sign for our winters – west=warm east=cold/snowy

    • Terry says:

      Yeah, that usually works and correlates to at least the cold part of the equation as a positive PNA oscillation and negative NAO makes that work.

      Not against Chris, but no one, and I mean literally NO ONE did a good winter forecast this year. I think NWS was right only on the cold/warm part way back in October as they were pushing the “El Nino Typical Conditions Forecast” but they still had our region dry…lol….then, even the NWS flopped and started barking a cold/snowy east half US and dry/warm west. TERRIBLE FORECASTING FROM EVERYONE AND I ALREADY CALLED MYSELF OUT SEVERAL WEEKS AGO AS THIS WAS NOT WHAT I THOUGHT WOULD HAPPEN EITHER!!!

    • Schroeder says:

      Definitely we need the ridge out along the West Coast to move the Polar jet (-) further south so it may combine with the subtropical jet (+) to produce winter weather events in the Ohio Valley. AO and NAO also have to be in the negative phase for most of the winter. This will occur again but most likely not this year ?

    • Bryan says:

      I was thinking the same thing yesterday. The Pacific NW has had a snowy winter at times. Here, not so much.

    • Jimbo says:

      I noticed that many years ago, probably back in the 80’s. The only thing I find odd this year, is it wasn’t until February that Seattle began to get slammed. Snow has been absent from our pattern all year and cold has been very brief and the temps have been normal to above.

  6. Formerly from KY says:

    CPC 8-14 Day Outlook calls for normal temps with the coldest air locked up in The Northwest of the country and above normal precipitation for most of the Eastern half of the country.

    • Schroeder says:

      YES, the Polar vortex is expanding southwest into the Pacific Northwest hence the ” snow train ” is there with a locked in upper level low pressure system. WOW ! it’s got to be beautiful out there with all the evergreens with snow on their branches.

  7. Bobt says:

    I went back and looked at the January archives and the GFS has been spitting out those pretty snow maps for over a month now. How has that worked out so far? Probably will be true now since meteorogical winter is coming to an end in about two weeks. I hope it is wrong and we just dry out for a while.

  8. Mike S says:

    Louisville had its 2nd driest winter season on record in the 1976/77 season at 4.43″ (Dec-Feb)
    Perhaps this explains part of the problem.
    Of the 38 days of measurable precipitation (>=0.01″), there were 24 days that there was measurable snow.

    Now why can’t we have that kind of problem today?

  9. Mike S says:

    Looked at teleconnections a few minutes ago. The AO, NAO, PNA are all showing my favorite signature for at least parts of the region getting a decent snowfall. A V-shaped signature from the AO (not clearly agreed upon by some ensembles) and NAO means look to the right part of the V for moisture and cold air in place. For the PNA, look to the left part of the V for moisture and cold air in place.
    The problem is the AO will be (+), and the PNA will be (-), which is the complete opposite of what they should be for a significant snow event in our region.

  10. Rickie H says:

    I am so thankful to see sunshine today it’s a nice relief. I had a photo memory pop up on my Facebook this morning five years ago today we had 14 inches of snow here where I live and a huge snowman. It really isn’t to late. We still have time for a good one.

  11. Troy says:

    And while some were holding out hope for those GFS and fantasy (FV3) GFS maps, they both moved the snow significantly north. This will be all Ohio by the time these systems arrive, just as most of us knew it would

  12. BlizzardTim says:

    Winter sure hasn’t panned out for us snow lovers in the south east this year so far… when everything seem to be pointing to a cold and snowy second half of winter just doesn’t wanna happen.. I’ve heard joe Bastardi say what happens in December the winter will remember. I have pondered that since our warm December and sure seems like it for the deep southeast anyways my area of Tennessee has only had one coating of snow all winter long and hasn’t been all that cold either nothing like central and northern Kentucky

  13. Russell says:

    As I said early on…RIP winter… it’s full steam into spring with snow remaining AWOL

  14. William says:

    Chris you say you are pulling for spring, I wasn’t aware we had winter. So it’s already spring. Let’s just roll with it! I am fairly certain we are in the last days because the Bible references the changing of seasons. When its still summer in October/November and winter doesn’t arrive until almost March I think this constitutes changing of seasons. Just sayin.

  15. Terry says:

    Looks like 3 to 4 inches of rain for us Troy just through next Wednesday as by WPC!!!

    I am telling you…we are not getting out of this pattern without a major flood. Getting closer to having real issues with each new storm.

    • Troy says:

      I know Terry. At this point I couldn’t care less if we get snow or not and don’t care if it gets cold or not… I just want this infernal rain to stop. I’ve never been so totally and completely sick of something in my entire life. Over a year of this ____ has grown beyond ridiculous.

  16. Jim B says:

    Not enough cold left folks, if you see green in any of those models for approaching weather, the trend will continue… might get a little snow, with a quick melt bout 8hrs later with these type systems…. maybe. So,maybe you snowlovers can hold onto that

    • BubbaG says:

      CB done killed it by using the dreaded word- region. Seems he would be emphasizing Kentucky is really thought we had a shot of snow beyond mix and scraps.

      Seems we can put a fork in it, but still holding on to a dumb and dumber chance 🙂

      Seems though we are on the verge of an epic wimpy snow winter. An No, an ankle biter, or border snows do not count. 🙂

  17. justin says:

    so much rain. mudslides are becoming a real issue, especially here in pike county. several over the last few days. our ground just cant handle all this rain. I would love to see more sunshine with a good drying out. we desperately need it. im so over the no-snow. #teamspring

    • Terry says:

      I think it is about to step up to another extreme level, the RAIN THAT IS!!!

      There is a huge atmospheric river getting ready to charge California and this will only amplify our already overactive subjet….widespread 3 to 4 inches plus for southern KY just through mid-week next week. See WPC below:

      If it dirsnt go straight to precip, hit QPF, then days 1-7

      • justin says:

        wow that’s a lot of rain in an already soaked state. I cant remember it ever being like this as I was growing up. sure, we would always have rainy spells but this is so out of the norm. my lawn, like everyone else, is a swamp. #teamdryout

        • Bobt says:

          The yards never even had that hint of July and August brown in them last year. It’s supposed to be hot and sunny in the summer time and we no longer get that. Rarely even got the evening short thundertorms in the summer. Just usually gloomy days of rain with a dry day here and there. If this is climate change then it stinks for Kentucky.

          • Debbie says:

            I know. My yard now has more HUGE brown and yellow patches in it than I can ever recall, any season. You just have to look beyond the mini- ponds that never have time to dry up into (at least…)mud to see them.

  18. BubbaG says:

    CB uswd the Region word, which probably mean not much for most of Kentucky 😉 🙂

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