Good Tuesday, everyone. Another powerful system is rolling into the region for the next few days, bringing a wintry mess before the threat for flooding. This is the first of two systems on the way between now and the weekend. That weekend system has the chance to produce a few strong to severe storms.

Clouds will increase today as moisture streams in from the southwest by late afternoon into the evening. This arrives in the form of rain, but with a band of snow and a wintry mix on the northern edge of it. The best chance of seeing this is across the northern half of the state for a few hours this evening before rain takes over.

I suspect a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for some…

Some slick travel could be noted for a few hours, so keep that in mind if travelling.

Heavy rain then takes over tonight and carries us through Wednesday night. Some thunder and lightning will even be possible on Wednesday as things get cranking. Rainfall totals from 1″-3″ will be likely through Thursday morning…

A Flood Watch is out for much of the region during this time. General flooding and river flooding may develop through early Thursday.

For a quick reference, here’s a rough timeline of how this looks to play out…

After a break in the action Thursday, rain returns Friday as we gear up for another heavy rain event for the weekend. This setup may even through a few strong or severe storms our way…

That could bring another 1″-3″ of rain our way, leading to another flood threat.

One more system will follow that up a few days later, but the pattern appears to be heading for a big change as we close out February and enter March.

We’ve talked about how this pattern has been VERY similar to what we went through last year at this time. The wettest February on record led us into a very cold and snowy March and spring. Mother Nature may try to flip the cold weather switch as we head into this March. Check out the first 5 days of the Month from the European Ensembles…

The control is even colder during the same time…

The GFS Ensembles are frigid for much of the country…

We’ve seen this movie before, but I’d rather not see it again. #teamspring

I will have updates and tracking tools later today. Have a good one and take care.