Good Tuesday, everyone. Another powerful system is rolling into the region for the next few days, bringing a wintry mess before the threat for flooding. This is the first of two systems on the way between now and the weekend. That weekend system has the chance to produce a few strong to severe storms.
Clouds will increase today as moisture streams in from the southwest by late afternoon into the evening. This arrives in the form of rain, but with a band of snow and a wintry mix on the northern edge of it. The best chance of seeing this is across the northern half of the state for a few hours this evening before rain takes over.
I suspect a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for some…
Some slick travel could be noted for a few hours, so keep that in mind if travelling.
Heavy rain then takes over tonight and carries us through Wednesday night. Some thunder and lightning will even be possible on Wednesday as things get cranking. Rainfall totals from 1″-3″ will be likely through Thursday morning…
A Flood Watch is out for much of the region during this time. General flooding and river flooding may develop through early Thursday.
For a quick reference, here’s a rough timeline of how this looks to play out…
After a break in the action Thursday, rain returns Friday as we gear up for another heavy rain event for the weekend. This setup may even through a few strong or severe storms our way…
That could bring another 1″-3″ of rain our way, leading to another flood threat.
One more system will follow that up a few days later, but the pattern appears to be heading for a big change as we close out February and enter March.
We’ve talked about how this pattern has been VERY similar to what we went through last year at this time. The wettest February on record led us into a very cold and snowy March and spring. Mother Nature may try to flip the cold weather switch as we head into this March. Check out the first 5 days of the Month from the European Ensembles…
The control is even colder during the same time…
The GFS Ensembles are frigid for much of the country…
We’ve seen this movie before, but I’d rather not see it again. #teamspring
I will have updates and tracking tools later today. Have a good one and take care.
Looks like another repeat
I hope it gets warmer in March and not colder.
I’m done with winter what little bit we had. Watching out for robins in my yard soon. That’s if they don’t drown when they get here. Lol.
A snow event turning to heavy flooding rains is just plain SAD. Only in the Ohio Valley, and to make matters worse severe weather latter in the week. Chris, this mornings blog really makes me depressed.
What would an update be without mentioning the possibility of a change to a more winter like and colder pattern coming up? That has been mentioned all winter and has not occurred.
The wolf eventually found the little boy.
Just remember that when Chris posts a long-range model, he isn’t making a forecast. He’s simply showing the guidance the computers are giving out. Every meteorologist in the eastern half of the country has gotten burned by the computers this year.
Snow lovers rejoice! The cold is coming and the storm track is going south. Just kidding. None of that is happening. Rodger in Dodger
NWS forecasting a high of almost 70 here on Saturday/Sunday with strong storms possible.
I have a bad feeling that this weekends event will be the one to cause major flood problems here.
Short range NAM now targeting South/Southeastern KY for some heavy rain tonight: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2019021912/nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_17.png
Most models seems to be targeting north central Kentucky with a thumping of snow and then heavy rainfall. Especially the HRRR model.
Prelude I hope we don’t get that much here in Southern Ohio? Any heavy wet snow would surely take down some of the trees as wet as the ground is. And no electricity on top of that would not be good at all.
Beggars can’t be choosers. Better late, than never, I say.
We didn’t beg for flooding rains.
Looks like CB might need to include March as part of his “winter forecast” because lately, meteorological winter (Dec-Feb) has not been very winter-like overall for most.