Good Tuesday, folks. I think I’m just going to start making a blog template for heavy rain and storms and just go with it each day because that’s where we are. The pattern continues to be amazingly consistent in producing waves of showers and storms, leading to a severe storms threat and flash flood threat.
Just like the past few days, any storm that goes up today can bring high winds and hail to your neighborhood. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC…
The severe threat may increase late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The SPC shows the increased potential…
As mentioned, rounds of showers and storms look to continue through the weekend and into early next week. No, it’s not raining all the time and you may not have rain everyday at your house, but heavy rain totals are likely. Many models continue to show several inches of rain…
Any particular day can produce, at least, minor severe weather across the state.
Let’s break the template a bit and talk about the month of July. The CFS temperature forecast continues with a cool signature for much of the country.
Here are the forecast temp anomalies for the first week of the month…
Notice a colder look for the 7 day stretch centered around the middle of the month…
And here’s what the model is seeing for the final week of July…
Oh yeah… The model shows above normal rainfall continuing, but isn’t that pretty much a given?
I leave you with your Tuesday tracking tools…
Have a great day and take care.
48-hr rain totals through 3:50 a.m. show 4″+ amounts in parts of Shelby through Fayette counties. Some areas of north, north-central, and central Kentucky are closing in on top ten wettest June’s.
It’s hard to believe that a few areas of far southern, southwest, and southeast Kentucky have received little or even no measurable rainfall. In addition, the few areas that are included in that category, some like Todd and Logan counties, are currently in the ‘abnormally dry’ shading of the Drought Monitor
One could include Taylor County in that pocket drought also. However, three day rain total for my county is .78 inches so far.
In fact, Fayette county Mesonet has recorded more precipitation in 48 hours than Logan county Mesonet has recorded in 48 days!
It has a lot to do with topography, especially in Harlan Co. Wrong wind direction down here, every storm or convective shower is sheared to death. Part of my county has seen some rainfall…I am sitting at 0.02 for THE ENTIRE EVENT! I will probably get some before all us said and done but the rainfall angle approach will have to change. SSW does nothing here!
I would say the influence of the southeast ridge has a play in this weather situation also.
What SE ridge??? It’s been non existent so far this year. If you think the SE ridge has something to do with this current weather pattern we have been experiencing you’re mistaken. A good strong SE ridge acts as a protector against the current pattern we are in.
I a$$use his thinking is that no low pressure system has moved directly east to west.
It’s called the Bermuda High which plays a big factor where the “rain train” will be the most prominent, along the edges where the warm air is rising. My county and other counties that have not received the rain is where the high pressure has the most influence (sinking air.) Today the high has moved some to the east allowing rain to finally fall in the area counties that have been left out of the rainy pattern.
Yeah, the SE Ridge is a factor in that it is not STRONG ENOUGH to allow the Burmuda High far enough west to end this crappy pattern…as far as me staying dry overall…that has to do with micro factors such as topography and direction of wind aloft. If it changes more to a west direction, which appears likely due to the front moving more south, I will get hammered later today.
The SE ridge was strong and a big factor with the winter this past year if one is not a fan of winter weather. As far as this spring and where we’re at today the SE ridge has been absent for the most part, very weak at least for the Ohio Valley.(Hopefully that will change) SE ridge has done a complete 180 compared to where it was this past winter.
Yeah, and to put more salt in our lack of winter wound, the oscillations are perfect and have been since mid-May for blocking…if only we were in winter! Now, we are blocked into a wet/coolish early summer yucky pattern:(
Don’t you worry the SE ridge will be in full effect and strong by this upcoming November-March. lol
It wasn’t a factor in 1976 Fall and Winter and I think this upcoming Winter will be remembered like the Winter of 1976-77.
The cooler than normal July has the year 1976 written all over it. The current stubborn weather pattern has the year 1979 written all over it. The year of widespread flooding, so severe that the town of English, Indiana had to be moved to higher ground.
What has happened to our summers? Cool and wet is all we can seem to get anymore. I’ve been saying it for years and will say it again. When retirement hits I’ve really got to consider moving to a better climate. Lack of sunshine is not healthy for the body and it doesn’t look like Kentucky is going to see enough clear days to see the sun. It literally rains on average every other day here.
What is your idea of a better climate ?
I got 3 inches of rain last night in Flemingsburg. Six inches over the past 48 hours.
When did they discontinue the Bell county Mesonet? I was gonna say it looks like Middlesboro and Harlan both might see more appreciable rainfall today than the prior couple days
I have not officially updated rain totals for the week, month, and year for other locations yet, but as of 9:45 this morning, I’m at 3.16″ for this rain event that started Sunday; for June, I’m at 7.08″; for the year, I’m at 32.61″. My garden is not happy.
It’s been raining most of the morning here in Taylor County but the rainfall totals will not be posted until tomorrow.
It would be if you had raised beds for your garden. Better drainage and more oxygen for plant roots equals happy plants and higher yields when we get later into Summer.
I am still at work, on a break at the moment, but I will check my total for today when I get home. I would guess at least 1 to 1.5 inches fell between 9:30 and 1:15…good soaker!
Now Harlan and Bell got added to the flood watch!
RIP Summer. Ok I said it….now maybe I’ll be proven wrong….hope so. I’ll bet alot of swimming pools are not getting much use in this cool pattern.
In the Summer of 1968 the swimming pools where I grew up in southwest Indiana never opened. That didn’t matter to me as I can’t swim. Couldn’t even learn so I went fishing everyday with my trusty cane pole. All the good old days, great memories.
I don’t talk much on here. As a matter of fact this is only the 2nd time I’ve posted anything. Whether u believe in it or not the bible says in the end days the weather will change drastically. Summer will be like winter and winter like summer among other crazy weather. Not a day goes by that I don’t hear someone say something like “This morning felt like September not June” or something similar. Has our normal weather changed that much in your eyes? Are we beginning to see the end times. Maybe so.
.77 is what had recorded for earlier rain this morning. While at work, I was thinking closer to an inch to 1.5in but a few miles makes a huge difference too.