Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, folks. It’s a windy and cold day in the bluegrass state with a little bit of everything falling from the sky. As we look ahead, we find this active pattern threatening to turn hyper-active with the potential for major rains and more flooding issues.

Let’s start with the mixed precipitation we have into the evening. Rain, sleet and snow will transition to mainly snow. I can’t rule out a quick, light accumulation on elevated surfaces, with the mountains of southeastern Kentucky likely turning white.

Here’s regional radar…

After a nice Sunday, clouds will quickly increase on Monday with light rain, snow and a mixed bag coming in Monday night and Tuesday…

That’s a quick hitter with some flakes flying behind it into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

From there, it’s game on toward a full blown heavy rain producing pattern. For days now, I’ve been showing you the deep trough in the western US and a ridge off the southeast coast and how this puts us in a wet setup. A strong southwest flow will be setting up late next week into next weekend. Waves of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will be possible across the entire region.

The rainfall forecasts on the computer models are very concerning. The European Model…

The GFS

Canadian

You can see how they differ on placement with the highest totals, but all three models have 7″ or more of rain showing up through next weekend.

Nothing good comes from this type of a setup.

Here are your snowflake tracking cams for the rest of the day…

Covington area

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_75_1908.jpg

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_471_0045.jpg

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_471_0006.jpg

Florence

No image available.

Maysville

Louisville

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_05_71_0116.jpg

No image available.

No image available.

Lexington


Georgetown

Frankfort

Richmond

Winchester

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Morehead

Mt. Vernon

Corbin

Make it a good one and take care.


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16 Responses to Saturday Afternoon Update

  1. Terry says:

    https://www.weather.gov/jkl/weatherstory

    I know, we are NOT anywhere close to the same 1993 weather pattern overall, but I thought it was interesting how warm January started with the year of the 1993 blizzard. Yes, that year was not as snowless as our winters have been recently, but 1993 was a very generic, around average winter for total snowfall through March 12th, then bam! A widespread 20 to 30 inches brought 1993 from an average winter to top 10 snowiest in modern history for east KY.

    Just trying to be positive, and with that said, I hope Jimbo and Marva get a little as they have a better chance Tuesday than down south here, even if only a coating…I hope you all get some up that way before the heavy rain returns!!! 🙂

    • Jimbo says:

      Not anticipating any flakes tonight or Tuesday. That little warm wedge of air with hold in place over the tri-state both times. You can see it on radar tonight. The heavy rain threat is a real concern especially for the folks in Kentucky. I am pretty confident the southeast wind will keep my rain totals down. Terry, I hope you pickup an accumulation tonight or at least get to see some on hilltops before the flash melt.

      • Terry says:

        As bad as the season has started, Harlan seems to be the sweat spot so far. The precip mostly started here after dark and now I have a sugar coat (1/8 inch) with training snow showers 🙂

        I am actually going to have to record this lol!

  2. Feederband says:

    Winter is just delayed a bit. It will be here and be harsh with cold temps.

  3. Farmer43 says:

    Kentucky only has two seasons summer and winter and winter ain’t much anymore it seems me as a farmer I’ve seen every type of weather one could imagine and I remember most all of them because some weather events cost me lots of money this past July to end of September devastated my crops along with the flooding rains in the spring but the one thing that really stands out to me in the last several years is how much rain we receive I think it’s the new normal and the rate of rainfall 2 3 4 5 inches in an hour it’s ver hard to control erosion with those types of rainfall events plus I’m very close to the Ohio River and it seems to get out of its banks a lot more frequently I hard to farm around rain but a lot harder to farm without it so I guess I better not complain to much

  4. Bobt says:

    Those maps are very concerning. The new norm for winter in Kentucky. Even if no snow we need a week or so of dry and cold. It’s amazing that we had the great warm and dry stretch around Christmas. Kentucky is is soaked in a lot of spots and there will be flooding if those numbers even come in at half of what the maps show.

    • Terry says:

      Those maps above just goes through next weekend, doesn’t even include the mid month (week after) storms!

      Doubled digit rainfall is likely by months end, at least a lot of the state anyways.

  5. Kasher1979 says:

    Chris and others,

    Is it pretty much game over for any real snow around here this year? I mean here we go with this flooding and stuff. Seems to me it’s game over. I’m discouraged.

    • Terry says:

      I want give you any false hope as it is not 100% game over but we have to have a complete pattern change first. It is bleak right now for the next few weeks but things could change (HOPEFULLY) after Jan 20th as the the strong PV may start to break down. We need to get out of the phase 4 and 5 of the MJO,
      break down the ridge in the Pacific NW Ocean(-PNA), break down of the PV (-AO) and break down the strong SE Ridge in the Atlantic, at least need a neutral but preferably a -NAO too….A lot of work needed!!!

      • Bjenks says:

        So going back to what Kasher1979 said’ “It is pretty much over” LOL

        Winter is far from over. In fact it has just begun in my books. The cold will come and hang around through March. Hopefully the precipitation hangs around as well.

  6. Bryan says:

    Choo choo, all aboard the KY rain train!

    Enjoy the new normal, guys. Want winter? Relocate to the Rockies, this sorry weather is our winter from here in out.

    Choo choo

  7. AC says:

    We surely couldn’t use another 19 inches of rain right?

    Mudslides and rock slides could be common across eastern KY in the next few weeks. This is one thing folks aren’t hinting at yet, but with this much rain, it’s almost certain one will happen somewhere.

    Winter is nowhere to be found. May not even show up at all this time around.

  8. Russell says:

    Someone point me in the direction of the arc…..lol

  9. SouthernWVaWildcat says:

    Looks like 2020 will be exactly like the 2010s, if not even worse: rain, and a ton of it. 🙁 The current long-range forecast I have noticed following next weekend, has yet another loaded rainstorm in the offing. This is the last thing any of us needs right now. 🙁

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