Sunday Evening Update

Good Sunday evening. We continue to watch a developing winter storm that will have a major impact on the weather across Kentucky and the Ohio Valley Christmas night through Thursday. Snow, rain and wind will combine to make for a nasty trip home from over the river and through the woods.

We are still three days away from the main impact of this storm and a lot can still change. Given the fact that this is a busy travel period, I’m putting out a super early breakdown map. Here’s a first blush look at how this thing may play out…

SpecialA part of western Kentucky is likely to be upgraded to Alert later tonight or Monday. Some random thoughts…

- Our low will develop across the western Gulf and ride into south central Kentucky Christmas night. Rain will break out across central and eastern Kentucky by late Christmas Day.

- That low will put the brakes on and take a hard right toward West Virginia. EXACTLY how far north and west that low is when it takes the turn will be the key on who gets what.

- Western Kentucky should be mainly snow and that’s the area that can pick up more than 4″ of heavy snow.

- Cold air will be directly to the west and northwest of the surface low. That will mean a quick change to snow as it passes through. Snow showers and squalls will then kick in by Wednesday evening into Thursday morning for the central and east.

- Everyone will see snow out of this storm… but amounts will vary greatly from west to east. I won’t be able to put exact numbers on things until we see where that low makes the turn eastward.

- Winds are going to be a big player and gusts may hit 40mph at times.

There will be no rest in forecasting as the next storm will work in here by Late Friday into the weekend. That is likely to result in another threat mode.

I’m traveling this evening and into Christmas Eve and Day. That won’t keep me from updating when I can. Just don’t freak out if I have some long periods without an update. ;)

I will have a big update coming your way later tonight. That one will break things down in greater detail. Have a great evening and take care.


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121 Responses to Sunday Evening Update

  1. rolo says:

    tx BALEY, BE NO FREAKING OUTOonly question is what haPPen to ur BLOCKING hat would keep the storm from gtting this far north, u missed it man and u went into alert mode to quick. but we live and learn.

    I finaly hit one saying nobody in WKYT VIEWING area would see any snow. OHIO RIVER COUNTIES 1-2 inches at besty and westyern KY will end up a coating at best.

    and don t try keep interest saying no rest as another big astorm possible next weekend, the blog will still get hits. that second storm will be a rain to sowe showers as well.

  2. weather blog troll says:

    Still a chance!
    Thank you Chris and safe travels to you and yours.

  3. Winter Warlock says:

    Thank you for the update and travel safe!

  4. rolo says:

    still a chance,lol, drops THREAT MODE moves SNOW CHANCE LINE alwayu to far wstern ky.lol

    love ur positive thinking though.

    BILL MECK also nailed storm yesterday saying mostly rain with it ending as a 1-2 inch at best.

  5. Micah says:

    What time do the next module runs come out? 7:00?

  6. rolo says:

    models are lock in, there all in agreement, sorry but it rain event.

    • Dean says:

      Umm.. The models are Definately NOT all in agreement. Euro still gives Louisville 3-6 inches… NAM and GFS are in agreement and the others are closer to the Euro. I would trust the Euro over those two so Chris seems spot on. Please stop trolling.

    • BubbaG says:

      Rolo, be careful. Seems you miss them when you are so emphatic about it. You have created ZERO wiggle room for you now.

    • Robbie says:

      Really? The NAM and the GFS agree, but the Euro, Canadian, JMA, and UKMet show something different.

      • BubbaG says:

        The average of them is a mix for all but NW Kentucky. You could throw out the nutty ones, but that seems a relative issue :)

  7. Logan says:

    Well Rolo, thing is, snow will most likely be everywhere, I hope this tracks more eastward than he has it, I want more tha a few inches.

    And anything that falls from 32° or higher is rain, so it should end as snow, plus, the low looks to be fast moving.

    Just a few weatherbtips from a 16 year old. Haha. Travel safe Chris, can’t wait to get another update.

  8. Micah says:

    I think we all have read your posts and know what your predicting but that still does not answer the question as to when the next runs come out.

  9. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Move it along folks, move it along…nothing to see here! Don’t know which I hate more….turning cynical because you know in your gut we’re not getting anything even 3-4 days out or that feeling you get when you find out you were right about it :(

  10. BubbaG says:

    We be the fence once again and as far as the sustained cold, seems it pushes out each week like last year- at least until this point. Mix will probably be the main theme except to the NW of the state (no changes since this morning there).

    CB is FAR more correct than not on these things, but seems warm air may be the victor for much of the state. If heavy snow to the NW, seems mix is the next logical transition zone and then mainly rain, as you move further SE in the state. Still, you never know until it happens :)

    A couple more months left, but seems southern fed systems have as much a chance of big snow in central Kentucky as Charlie Brown does kicking the football.

  11. sharon says:

    so glad you are keeping us up to date on the weather ! you are the best weatherman

  12. Angel says:

    Thanks Chris,
    Waiting on the east movement!!!!

  13. pattyversailles says:

    Mike M!!! You still being moderated?? I thought I say a post from you yesterday!

  14. Linda in McCreary says:

    Safe travels Chris and wishing you and the family a very Merry Christmas!!!

  15. Marsha says:

    Thanks Chris don’t let all these comment spoil your christmas if we get snow great if not than I’m just glad I am alive and well to spend christmas with our family’s that’s more than a lot of people have this christmas….

  16. Mike says:

    If the models are always “wrong” with early routes — they always shift toward the northwest, why isn’t that data reflected into the algorithms and the models correct for this bias? How can models always get it wrong to start with? How can a computer model make the same mistake is made again and again and again? Would the mathematicians, computer modelers and the mets correct for this after a few times? This definitely seems to be the trend over the last few years.

    • BubbaG says:

      I have asked that for the past seven years.

    • MJ says:

      Mike, the northward and northwestward shifts in the model fields is not really a bias. The actual model bias is that the models tend to bring systems across the US too quickly in the extended forecast period (GFS does this, but the Euro has a problem in slowing things down a bit in the southwest US at times). This is an inherient problem in the models because there are no observations over the north Pacific to quantify the strength and speed of an approaching weather system coming into the western US. Once the weather system in question enters north America, it is sampled directly by weather ballons every 12 hours. The shift to the north or northwest is a result of the models ingesting the new and more correct data. To mitigate the data void in the Pacific, the NWS in the past has utilized the hurricane hunters and had them drop radiosondes into the Pacific to get better data into the models. This was called the NCEP winter program and they would base the hurricane hunters out of Alaska and have them do this for about a two week period. The ingest of this data did produce some increase in model forecast skill. The cost of doing this is quite expensive (flight hours and fuel) and is now prohibitive given today’s budget constraints.

      • Robbie says:

        Don’t forget the ACARS data your friendly airline pilots provide.

      • Mike says:

        Thanks for the details. I am an avid learner and am learning a lot.

        If there is an inherent problem that is known why not correct for it? Why go with a model that is known to be wrong that will be corrected for later. Why not build the coming correction into the model earlier on? It seems weird that a model is published that we know will be corrected or is nearly always corrected, just to correct it later. Why not build that in?

        • KellyinLouisville says:

          Because that would make too much sense.

          • BubbaG says:

            Job security. If the models were too good, lots of mets would have to be doing jobs when wrong you get in trouble ;)

            I am joking of course :)

            …… The models ARE usually nuts for snow though………. ;)

            • KellyinLouisville says:

              Yeah, they just don’t do well this time of year. Spot on during summer but I could be right 90% of the time in our summer…hazy, hot and humid with a 20% chance of a popup thunderstorm that will go nowhere near any of the gardens planted by us readers. Highs in low 90′s with lows in mid 70′s.

              In fact, that’s my long range forecast for June-September 2013. I’m feeling lucky on that one.

  17. Matthew says:

    Rain ending in snow should make for some nasty travel in either of those 2 sections. Hope everyone stays safe if this hits like this and they have to travel.

    Maybe we get lucky and it is a little colder than expected (think that has happened before) and we get an extra couple inches.

  18. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Be careful traveling! Enjoy your family time. We appreciate you.

  19. MikeM says:

    Moderation is painful

  20. bjenks says:

    Thanks for the update Chris! Safe travels to you!

    Neutral to Positive NAO during this storm so northeast blocking subsiding on the flip side you have a PNA going positive so ridge developing in the southeast the two combined indicies are forcing the low northwest. If it isn’t one thing its another. Kentucky will always be on the FENCE for these storms. Confidence is very low that this will track to the east far enought to get snow for anyone except Western Ky and Southern IN.
    On to next weekend…….I will Think Positive and THINK SNOW!!!

  21. Bengalfan says:

    Bengals busted the trend!!!!! Now let the the snow do the same (although I had more faith in my bengals than I do in this winter weather).

    Question, I remember in the 70 and 80′s the word “jet stream” was used all the time. I never hear anymore. I say lets start using it instead of words blocking,pna,and all the model words, etc…when I see the “jet steam” on a map, it makes sense to my small brain. It always showed what would happen with the snow. I’m just sick and tired of these models showing something and its not real!

    So, lets start using it,,,hey Chris, if your listening…the word is JET STREAM.

    Btw…..Who Dey..I’m so pumped.

    • Vinny says:

      You should be pumped, your team is good and very young… Many more years to watch & root for a winning team…

      On the flip side, my Steelers have let some players get long in the tooth and it may take a few years to reload with the same skill set we are used to… Time will tell, but enjoy your run my friend, loyal Bengals fans deserve this….

      GO STEELERS..!

  22. Micah says:

    00Z NAM should be coming out any moment! Everyone hope for the shift!

  23. Lincoln says:

    Lets pray for that shift! Someone update me, I won’t be able to see models this evening :(

  24. Aaron Carrington says:

    I hope the models are off and it snows in the “snowless corridor”. That is the counties around the I-75 & I-64 split- Clark Co. in particular. The snow is always North, South, East, or West of this area.

  25. Pierce says:

    I’m not anticipating the 0z NAM to shift. None of the 0z models will shift east most likely. AT this point I think a miracle is needed.

  26. RobertW says:

    Whatever happens..I’m glad Bailey is doing this. You can tell he truly loves what he does and is right waaaay more than he is wrong. Everything I read about this “storm” from him suggested what MAY happen if thing proceeded the way they were at that time. Change happens all the time. All of the snow lovers on here “me included” are wishing for it now. Keep it up Chris and thanks for the blog. Been following for a long time just don’t post.

  27. Aaron Carrington says:

    Only cold rain- nothing new. :(

  28. Upslope says:

    Just glad to see a decent winter pattern taking shape.

    • Bengalfan says:

      48 today47 tomorrow, rain,maybe little snow wed, I guess my idea of decent winter is different, hopefully this an b the start,,I hope it gets really cold and snow

  29. WKY says:

    Well since you CKY people have nothing to look forward to but a cold rain, let’s talk about WKY for a minute. (West of Beaver Dam) what are you seeing here?

  30. Pierce says:

    New NAM is the same old stuff. I hate this.

  31. Tyler says:

    Well the 00z nam doesn’t produce a snowstorm anywhere in Kentucky.

  32. james says:

    Winter storm watches from Ok. up to Ind. So far, west Ky. not included.

  33. Nate in Nicholasville says:

    I am forgetting about this storm. What is everyone seeing for next weekend?

  34. Neil says:

    For the past 15 years its been wash, rinse repeat…nothing to see here, move along. I see no reason to believe the next one will act any differently…rain followed by cold… more rain, more cold, a small snowfall that melts in half a day, then start all over again…

  35. Mike says:

    ’nuff’ said…

  36. Bill L says:

    I just returned from shopping…..I actually bought salt to ice the sidewalk…guess I won’t need it now. It l looked so good. Lucy snatches the the snow threat ‘football’ out from this Charlie Brown again….c’mon Mother Nature!

  37. Seth says:

    Wrap around snow trending wetter for much of Kentucky.

  38. chrisb says:

    new GFS shifted 100 miles EAST!!!!

  39. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Why worry about next weekends storm the government cannot afford to do analysis while the storm is over the Pacific.Which begs the question why even produce an extended forecast from an unreliable source. Thanks MJ for the info, I think this helps clear up a lot of questions that have been asked through out the past winter years.

  40. Micah says:

    Is this Chris Bailey?

  41. BubbaG says:

    Wonder how long CB holds on to the storm threat and drops to advisory? Sometimes you got to take Kenny Roger’s advice and know when to fold em’.

    Warm air also looks to spoil the weekend system as well. Boo.

  42. trent says:

    see you all keep doubting bailey..he said earlier toda it would come east and all you weather wonders kept dogging

  43. Kyguy2016 says:

    What would a shift east do as far as the axis of heavier snows? I’m in W. KY (Owensboro) and the heaviest snow forecasted as of right now is to our west and northwest. 2-4 inches possible here but down from models showing up to/over a foot 24 hours ago. Could a shift east push the heavier snows my way?

  44. Lincoln says:

     ▀      ▄▄  ▄███▄
    ▄▀▀▀▄   ▄█████████▀ CATS
    █    █  ▄██████  █▀
    █    █  ▀██████████▄
    ▀▄   ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀█▀▀██▀
      █  ▀▄CARDS ▄▀   ██▀
    █▄▄▄▄▄▄▄█    ███▄▄

    LOL, no offense to anyone..you gotta admit its pretty good.

  45. trent says:

    gfs will come around to euro solution not a trend yet.. but will be

  46. Ready4Snow says:

    Wow..what a big shift…Looks like the op has come around to the ensembles…Really was not expecting that…Will be interesting too see what the euro does tonight…

  47. trent says:

    on other hand…some models are showing march 2 type outbreak dynamics as in severe weather across southern miss…louisiana.. going to be a historic tornado outbreak on christmas day down there…look for future models to show the convection down south to rob moisture on the northern fringe

  48. Marsha says:

    I guess eastern ky still not in the game for snow

  49. Emc says:

    The game has started. We will get our snow hopes up again and then by tomorrow evening they will be dashed again. Personally I think cb did nice job so far. He was predicting much colder and snow chances one week ago and most brushed him off and said not until new year. Although he has not been spot on I grade him higher than most other mets over last seven days

  50. Beau Dodson says:

    Have safe travles

  51. Beau Dodson says:

    Err travels :)

  52. Amandanlouisville says:

    has anyone seen the latest euro ?

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