Good Sunday to one and all. Our Winter Storm THREAT continues for Christmas Night into Wednesday. I have no changes to my initial line of thinking or areas most at risk of getting in on a round of heavy snow. The entire picture will clear up a bit later today into Monday as the models hone in on the EXACT track of the initial low pressure.
The latest runs of the models have edged back eastward a bit. The GFS is the farthest west of the entire model suite with the lead low into central Kentucky. It now has no friends and that’s usually a bad sign for that model. The rest of the models take the first low into the Tennessee Valley toward far eastern Kentucky and West Virginia before giving way to a stronger low in the mid atlantic states.
The European Model …
The GFS Ensembles mean isn’t as far west as the Operational GFS, but it’s farther west than the other models…
The Canadian Model transfers the energy to the primary low much quicker and offers up a much colder and snowier scenario for many…
The UKMET is very similar…
The exact track of the lead low will determine who gets in on the heaviest snow and who gets rain to end as snow with only a light accumulation. My initial threat map remains unchanged for now…
I will adjust as needed later today with updates. Lost in the shuffle of all this is the fact this will be another very windy storm. Gusts may reach 40mph at times on Wednesday.
Just think… we get to do this all over again by Friday and Saturday as the next storm approaches. 🙂
Make it a great Sunday and take care.
The only thing for me to look forward to is the prospect of days getting longer.
Thanks for your efforts, this blog is really fun during the cold snow less winters. I cannot stop myself from checking into this insane asylum for weather geeks.
And here’s to you,Mrs.Robinson.
Going to the models debate.
I guess if we had to choose between doors it would be the euro or the highly suspicious Canadian model.
Either way you are still getting rain.
What is the best track for a central/eastern kentucky snow experts? A low tracking across southern tennessee?
Yes but when it turns needs to be over West Virginia or Virginia. You do not want the low right on top of you. Unfortunately looks to be what will happen this time.
That is a fancy tech term for the fence.
I can’t imagine that there can be a more frustrating place on the planet to be a snow lover than central Kentucky! The snow is ALWAYS so close, yet just out of reach…It really is time to not get excited about snow until it covers the ground…even then, though, the Miser might find a way to make it go away…
Still looks like county’s along the Ohio River will get literally dumped on as it stands right now possibly a foot of snow with heavy wind.
Enduring a cold, rainy, miserable Christmas Day in order to get a small amount of snow AFTER
Someone is going to get a thumping for sure. Going to be interesting to see what happens. Have a great Sunday, everyone. Thanks, Chris.
I don’t know CB. You are the met and I am obviously not one, but seems most of Kentucky is the fence for this event and to compound it, warm air seems a factor.
We could get a few inches the more due north west you are, but seems Sir Mixalot for most of us. Seems more winter advisory mode for most of us, but provided not ice, I would be honored to be wrong and folks get a real good snow 🙂
My emphasis as usual is central Kentucky, since the most big snow deprived since 1998. NW area of Kentucky still have a decent shot. Better at least than fence central.
Just takes a few degree deviation to create a trend buster, so the good news is there is always in these conditions a chance.
BubbaG…Just wondering if you had to draw a line for Central KY where would you draw it. I live in Lou., but I don’t consider my self in Norhern Ky although we are in the Northern part of the state. I consider us more central as we are in line with Lex. Also does your line run East West or North South. If I had to guess what your preverbial FENCE(for this storm) looked like it would run from Bowling Green through Frankfort and off to the NorthEast corner of the state. Seems Lou. is always on the wrong side of the fence or under the Dome. Just Checking!!!
CB has a map and the fence “is” currently the moderate/low areas. Since not etched in stone, this means the closer to the “highest” the more likely for a real good snow event.
CB appears to be taking a weighted average of some models and his own interpretation (why he is good, IMO). Composite (weighted average) models tend to always win out!
I would have to say the fence is what CB has marked as moderate. E/SE Ky always seems to get some flakes when the rest of us do not.
Thanks CB for the update and your thoughts. Good Morning to everyone else. I do like the current setup of this low for the Louisville Area. Would like to see a slight shift to the east on the GFS Esemble as it would place us in the sweet spot. All the other models seem to have come more west especially the defunct Candian model. Now it is just a waiting game! As long as the low does not push any further north/west Louisville will have snow from this event. Can’t say much for the eastern part of the state as you guys are currenlty in line for a rain to snow event. Let’s all hope this low tracks a little further to the east so we can get rid of the DOME. Stay positive and good things will happen..EMERSON was absent yesterday so I had bring that up.
THINKS SNOW!!!! oh yeah…Saturday’s system will have a major impact on the entire state! We are in for a pretty wild ride leading into the New Year. I just hope everyone that wants snow gets into the game…….
THINK not THINKS!!!
Got my eyes on the Ohio river county’s. Louisville has a real good shot on getting a real healthy snow. As long as the low does not track anymore north or west snow will dominate Louisville. Bjenks you are prolly in the best part of KY to get a healthy snow as it stands right now. I’m sticking to my guns with the county’s that border the Ohio river Jefferson,Oldham,Henry,Trimble,Carrol, etc etc
Lets shift that a county eastward to Shelby County lol. We always seem to get less snow than Jefferson County, although we did get 6 inches last March.
I do think that the models will actually shift east, I mean the 0z GFS did shift east enough to put down some good snows in some areas. The 0z euro also shifted east from it’s 12z position, and from what I can tell the GFS ensembles shifted east. BOTS!
Im here but work in cell phones sales so been busy. Thanks for keeping the POWER OF POSITIVE thinking going bjenks. It will happen, more storms coming, each storm coming means odds getting better, they all cant miss us. THINK SNOW! Ill be checking in later just not time to reply. So again remember POWER OF POSITIVITY!
I would be positive as well if in Louisville. The more due SE from there, not so much. Looks like Card country has a good shot at a win for big snow and the ball game on the 29th.
Perhaps a harbinger! If you do not get a big snow, Cats win! 🙂 😉
I agree with Bubba the county’s bordering the Ohio River might start off as rain for a 3 maybe 4 hour scenario but should quickly turn to snow. Wouldn’t be surprised as of now to see Louisville and county’s bordering the Ohio river get every bit of 6+ inches of snow it’s gonna be close real close. If the track of the low goes further east it will be a humdinger of a snow if low goes further west and north then not so much for the folks in the Ville.
I will stay positive, but I have seen to many of these lows shift at the last minute to really bum me out. I will stay positive however.
So, in the end the WKYT viewing area (and eastward) is just going to have a rainy, cold, miserable Christmas Day to be followed by too late (and too small) to be worthwhile snow fall the next day? Come on Gaia, that’s just plain ole mean! The last time I saw something this frustratingly anticlimactic was watching the series finale for Lost.
Alex Hayes? She’s doing weather related work for WKYT but not listed on the weather page as part of the meteorology team. Did we lose someone at the station?
http://www.wkyt.com/home/headlines/Possible-Christmas-flurries-before-a-mid-week-winter-storm-184569471.html
Rolo posted something the other day about her but i thought i had seen all of them he last week or 2
It’s model war. The GFS and nam vs the euro, Canadian, and uk met.
My heart wants the euro because I want it to snow. I wish the darn thing would get moving into the west so the models could agree more on the track. It’s out there spinning and taunting us.
Wish the snow was not going to be in our county, but at least it is pretty but a mess to drive in. ugh. lol
Here’s the latest Euro snowfall map for the 27th
http://ow.ly/i/1hV1R/original
Looks like 6-9 inches according to the Euro map for the county’s right along the Ohio River. Those folks are starting to look like the snow winners as of now.
ALEX HAYES has been working as producer/weather girl for 2 months, and there been no pub by BAILEY or anybody at WKYT. she be working all week thru XMAS.
I ask Bailey why he hadnt mention her? she has a WONDERFUL BLOG as well. i would likwe see u all go there and welcome here.
AS FARAS STORM OHIO RIVER counties best shot, going be a rainy mess from LEXINGTON areas S and E and SE.
NOTHING TO SEE here
no we have 4 casters stil at station ALEX is a producer first right now, she work TGIVING and going work XMAS she needs our support, she came from TEXAS, she grrreat.
Ice and wind would not be a good combo
So maybe just maybe, the low will zig when the models say zag?
Good to see the positive Emerson on!
Keep the faith….and after all folks, Winter has just started.
first Bailey knows I got his back, and this is a blog were we ALL can talk and disuss.
but what HAPPEN to the BLOCKING would allow this system to move to far north? this was the comments few days ago.
now there no mention of the blocking, I guess when u are in correct u dont bring it up.
Bailey wasnt the only one who thought this either, it look the same to me 3-4 days ago.
just like to understand how the blocking just went away that easy as im not a PRO. maybe Bailey or WXMAN,MITCH could explain.
just a topic nobody mentioning here, as 3 days ago everybody meaning the PROS was giddy saying the blocking will not allow a northern track/ AKA BUST this time.
Rolo, are we just getting a cold rain here in “Gunchester”??
I am surprised CB is still being general with the winter storm threat. Seems no current way it is anything above advisory for points due south east from the river. Louisville on north east along the river area seems the best chance for storm level mode.
Joe Bastardi remains of the belief the low tracks up the western side of the mountains in eastern KY. He then expects it to transfer to the coast. Bastardi also believes the GFS is too warm due to its feedback problems. Bolstering the GFS though is the NAM which takes the low much farther north and west. The new NAM is a soul crusher for snow lovers in KY.
As John Belski just pointed out on his blog, even when we get a favorable track for snow from the GFS, it wraps in too much warm air and keeps the state as rain. That’s life in KY though.
That is why Kentucky is mainly the fence for southern fed systems. Since 1998 not ONE of these have gotten through of the frozen type unless mainly ice.
Question is why in the 60’s, 70’s, 80’s and 90’s we got big snow from these systems, but not anymore. Not an issue of “climate change”, since folks to the north, south, east and west have gotten big snows since then. Central Kentucky has become one giant “roundish” thing that prevents big snow systems from materializing.
Rolo,
Does that mean Bastardi thinks central KY will get in on the snow action?
I suspect you meant to address that to me since I was the one who mentioned Bastardi. Honestly, I can’t tell you. His snowfall map from yesterday showed 8 inches plus from southern Indiana east toward Lex with 4 inches just east of Lex. For the southeast part of the state, he showed an inch or two.
This is typical Bastardi though. He’ll stick with his original forecast until it’s plainly obvious it won’t work. He would rather hold out until the end than be known as a model flip flopper. If the new GFS looks anything like the NAM, he start hedging.
Still some hope?
I saw The Hobbit last night. Trolls are funny 🙂
Thanks Bubba…we run with the Big Bubba sometimes…not too far from elves!
We don’t know much about weather models just wistful for the Old School Snows…
Merry Christmas to ALL!
I do not either. I just go by the historic trends and the average of the model trends. As they change, they show their own trend as well and can telegraph the directional changes of the actual event.
I like snow too, but hold almost zero chance for these type of systems in central Kentucky giving big snow. Now, if they were to call “ice” watch out!
ICE!!! yikes…. Get Behind Thee Bubba
Learning, learning from all you kind folks
So if any of yall lived in Oldham County would you go buy the Milk and Bread?
Go find a sale on umbrellas.
Rolo im in no way an expert but i believe if you look at the 500 hts/vort maps from earlier when the system had ky in the bull’s eye range there was a vortex(Guess that’s what you call it) in eastern canada…Now it’s sitting in the middle of canada above North dakato…I believe that’s what broke down our blocking..Maybe someone else can shed some light on what happened..
The 12z nam is a disaster for everybody. Lets all share in the rain. If the GFS & EURO 12z does not have an eastward movement then we already know the rest of the story. As Paul Harvey would say.
I wish I could control myself and not get caught up in the hype. Of course if I start writing how I really feel about bogus winter models, I would be put down for being so so negative.
I guess I should not complain at least Lou & cental Ky will be dry slotted with this event and that means we will not have to carry an umbrella around the whole day. CAN I REGIFT MY GFS MODEL I GOT FOR CHRISTMAS
Nah, rain gets through just fine. If it were supposed to be snow, then the dry slot angle comes into play.
What’s better than dry slotting? A vergA storm!!! The entire event is dry, but its not really. Happens in KY least once a year I feel like.
I’d just like to get a comment through moderation!!!
I’m looking at the new GFS and it brings the Low right over Lexington at 75 hours and then jumps the Low to central Virginia at 81 hours. Joe Bastardi has written on Weatherbell and said in his videos this would be fairly rare to see. Most lows, when they transfer east, reform along the coast.
Maybe the next low that form’s will be 500 mile’s away from ky and slowly start going east like this one..Then bam,we in the bull’s eye..lol
lol..west not east
Folks, I don’t think the path of this snow is set in stone yet. Don’t give up just yet. If the next run of the Euro looks more like the NAM, then perhaps we’re doomed. Model trends in recent winters have changed up until the last minute and often become “nowcast” events…meaning precip movement changes as the storm unfolds.
Remember two winters ago when central/east KY was supposed to get a big snow and then it hit WKY instead? That was a nowcast event.
Fair points.
I live in Louisville and all I see is mostly rain when I look at these models. I don’t see more than an inch or two of snow being even possible right now.
I’m going to change m name from MikeM to moderated. Maybe then I’ll get through.
OK….My final take….The low is starting the N/W shift and over the past eight years these N/W shifts almost never move back to the S/East. This is just one of these HYPED storms four days out only to bum us out. Heavy snow to our N/W with a cold (FENCE) rain here in Louisville. I know everyone is hearing if the models shift back to the S/E we will be in the Bullseye……IT AIN’T GOING TO HAPPEN. As Bubba says…Trends over the years prove this fact. I will however, for Emerson, Think Positive and THINK SNOW!
The threat for the Wed storm is no longer needed for the entire state of KY. I guess we just have to wait for the next HYPED storm next weekend. Not trying to be negative or a debbie downer….Just looking at the facts over the years of following these systems out of the South. On a side note I hope that I am wrong and the trend is busted.
The extended models are very good as far as predicting moisture on a given day. They are terrible at predicting how much precipitation and what type.
That being the case I will go on record and predict the outcome for this weekends storm for the whole state of Ky. Rain with temps in the upper 30’s to the north and low 40′ to the south before the rain comes to an end there will be a brief change over to insignificant snow flurries.
Down the road we will have our eyes on a clipper system,hoping that it will be an over-performer.
Still not getting why CB has stuck with the winter storm threat for the state. Too general considering nothing appears to reasonably support a statewide storm event. An advisory perhaps, but not a storm.
Unless CB sees something else, of course. He IS a met, of course.
I guess even Chris needs some R&R. He really does not need to comment on the North American models,we already know what they are indicating.
The nam is wrong it’s going way to far north and west it makes no sense it’s a garbage run.
For what it’s worth, DT at WxRisk doesn’t buy the 12Z GFS. You can read more of his comments on his Facebook page.
Right now, it seems to be the US models against the world. While they are warmer and rainy, the other models are colder and snowier, relatively speaking.
The 0Z Euro shows a healthy swath of snow along the Ohio River and at least an inch of snow well into eastern KY. Again, DT has the snow map posted on his Facebook page.
Who is DT? I want to go look
This may sound dumb but Who is DT
He is Dave Tolleris and he runs WxRisk.com. Just search wxrisk on Facebook. I’ve been following him since 2000 and he is a great forecaster. He’s rough around the edges, but he does a great job with the pattern and explaining why the models are right and wrong. He and Bastardi used to mention each other, but they had a falling out early in the last decade.
Is he stating heavy snow for Southern Indiana/Louisville?
No, but he has consistently said some portions of KY and OH could well receive heavy snow. Before the tracks moved west yesterday, I think he was ready to predict big snows along the river, but not right now. He has been a long time hater of the GFS and has always been a fan of Euro because of it tigher resolution and superior computing power.
Our local weatherman here in Bowling Green says snow will be in Indiana and Missouri….. You all agree?
I hope Chris is wrong and we get to do this all over again i’m not a big fan if rain all the time
Here’s my official forecast for the Lake Cumberland area: The event will start as rain…in the middle we should have an extended period of rain…then on the backside of this system we can expect a cold rain.
Snow will be concentrated in the Louisville & northern counties as everyone here has pointed out.
On a side note…CB’s tweet pointed out that Football is trumping weather this afternoon….for anyone who has followed his blogs for anytime should know…when weather gets trumped…there’s no weather to speak of.
I’m going to go on ahead and predict a hurricane will hit the east coast in January. Yep.
Where do I start… The trend is your friend, IWBIWISI, for Madison county: 8 – 6 – 24, winter forecast models are terrible, winter forecasting is really guess-casting, spring storm forecasting is very good, mets work really hard, mets give us the best they got… … …
Everyone,
Relax…This storm still hasn’t made landfall. Weather baloons have yet to collect any information on the storm. This track will likely go back east once we see this evenings runs. Even a slight deviation in track 2,000 miles away will alter our precip once it gets here. We will know much more this time tomorrow. It will then become clear on precip type and we will know amounts. LMK NWS office still has 4-6″ for both sides of Ohio River.
12Z Euro has the 5 degree C line from Bowling Green to Lexington to Maysville on Wednesday. It’s over. GFS has won, again.
Yes, but this is based on the center of the low. Center of low is going to change.
True, it’ll change. It’ll move more NW, which it’s been doing in all the models other than GFS for the past few runs. So, instead of 5 degrees C, we may end up at 7 degrees C by the time it’s here.
I think there’s some question as to whether the GFS is ahead of the pack or just way out on its own. And I don’t think that because the UKMet and GEM have shifted to the north and west, when compared to their supressed storm tracks, necessarily validates the GFS.
Regardless of the low track, the warm air is going to get up in here initially. The real concern is how fast the cold can get in on the back side. It may be a little faster than the models suggest.
why do you always talk in celsius..we don’t use Cel. break it down for Faren. Why are you such a GFS homer?? must be a weather channel lover.
In the words of Rocky Balboa, it ain’t over Mick nothings over!
More like Rocky IV where Apollo gets taken out.
Winter storm for most of the state seems a similar fate.
BTW, what happened to all that cold air that should have settled by now? Looking more like rinse and repeat from last winter, but still seems the net result this winter will be the average of the last two.
Where is the 0 degree line?
I think DT at WxRisk and Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell would disagree with you. Bastardi wrote the GFS is in its own world and expects it to trend east and cooler over the next day or so. DT doesn’t buy the GFS either. If nothing else, they certainly don’t buy the GFS bringing warmth and rain into PA.
DT has a nice write up of the 12Z Euro on his Facebook page. He writes the Euro indicates snow, possibly heavy, should be falling over central Kentucky by 1PM. He says the Euro snow map is essentially the same as the 0Z map he posted.
Bengals 10 steelers 7. What does the models say for the end of the game? ….will trends win out if so, steelers will when 21-17…. Will the trend be busted if so, bengals 24-steelers 17…… If bengals when everyone snow, if steelers when, rain from Louis,cincy south. Go bengals whose with me
I am not getting some of the Bengals running plays up the middle. Ain’t getting it at all. It then forces them into long third down throws.
Our winter storm outlooks behave the same way. Same script love and over it seems.
BTW, why the long field goal attempt????
Up the middle again!!! Then a long throw!!! Bleh.
Defense gets it done!
LMK said 4-6″ was a county away. They were talking more like S.Indiana would see snow while the rest of us got rain. They did mention it could shift.
That was from this morning. Curious to see what they think now in the afternoon AFD.
I’m holding out hope until the update comes 00z models come out at 7pm CST today. I think we might be the dividing line here in Bowling Green. Hoping for some dynamic cooling and thundersnow!
The Canadian 12Z ensembles seem to place the low in and around Knoxville according to a map provided by Bastardi.
Robbie,
What would that mean for us here in Central KY?
In theory that would be good for snow in Kentucky.
As I thought LMK saying 2-4″ inches of snow for S.Indiana. Louisville an inch and half an inch or less for the rest of the area. Not much of a storm here folks for anyone it seems now.
Somebody turn out the lights, this parties over.
Congrat’s Bengal fans…
Your team deserved to be in playoffs and it would have been a disgrace if the Steelers made the playoffs after this pathetic season.
We have the most OVERATED quaterback in the history of the NFL…
As a Steelers fan, i’m ashamed to call Ben our quarterback…
He lost his mojo after the motorcycle wreck. Still, the guy take hits and keeps playing.
You can have him
Who DEY
LoL vinny you will change your mind during the offseason 😉 Maybe the Steelers should go after Tebow or Sanchez
I’d take tebow over Ben all day long… Tebow not the best, but he doesn’t lose games like ben does…
Look guys, I’m a die hard Steelers fan, but I do not like Ben and never have, NEVER… Ask anyone that knows me… I have two teenage daughters and the way he treats women sticks in my crawl… And now he wants to blame Haley for their horrible offense? Please….
I agree!
Vinny id be ashamed to call myself a steelers fan after sayin that. Ben has played good all season. HE cant do it all. Just look at his stats this year. Mike wallace is the overated one if anybody is.
I didnt get to watch the game today and i dont know how ben played today but ive watched all the other games this year and ben has done a good job.
I am ashamed of one Steeler, Ben… Bengals got 10 points off HIS mistakes. Defense played great, hell Steelers number #1 ranked D in 2012, but Ben finds a way to lose games for us, time after time…. Like I told bubba, you want him, HE’S YOURS…
Unfortunately, nothing to see here folks. I guess I’ll start looking to Friday and Saturday 🙂
I think threat will be dropped for Ky. I don’t see anymore SE movements in the models. 🙁 Next weekend will probably end up the same. 🙁 These are just my opinions and I hope I’m wrong. I’ll be the first to omit I’m wrong and eat my own words if we got a big snow in central Ky.
What happened to the Greenland high that was supposed to deliver all the blocking that was going to give us a good winter? Just wondering. What is the current status of the EN southern oscillation? What is the NAO doing? What are the patterns doing? What can we expect given the current patterns. Please address this somebody. I can look at models, but when it comes to the actual drivers of our weather, I am clueless. Give us some insight in the next post Chris. We are only two days into calendar Winter so we still got plenty of time for some snow!
What happened to the Greenland high that was supposed to deliver all the blocking that was going to give us a good winter? Just wondering. What is the current status of the EN southern oscillation? What is the NAO doing? What are the patterns doing? What can we expect given the current patterns. Please address this somebody. I can look at models, but when it comes to the actual drivers of our weather, I am clueless. Give us some insight in the next post Chris. We are only two days into calendar Winter so we still got plenty of time for some snow!
I agree,,just. Would like to know
If some of you knew half of what you thought..i dont even like getting on here because of some of the stupid opinions and negativity.i cant believe bailey puts up with it…he does this site on his own time and some of you should be respectful and especially not argue with him preferably when its only your opinion
foru all that just been here a year or so the STORMS ALWAYS GO FUTHER WEST NWEST as they get closer, so quit pulling ur hair bout snow. 2-4 tops for FRONKFORT N AN NWEST but i think tomm morning runs have ALL rain for even though areas.
Yep, very rare to see anything move east.
Have to agree with Rolo. I was hopefull untill the 18z runs came out, but think its all over now.
Bingo – i said it yesterday – cold rain ending with a coating of snow – same old song and dance – all hype as always and no snow
You gotta love the blog, if you live south and east of Lexington on here and the models don’t show you love everything is crap, I live in Frankfort, I still see a good shot at snow for my area, sore losers on the model looks get over it, this is just one storm, all areas cannot be in the sweet spot! This can shift 100 miles north or south, so I see everyone still in the game!
I dont see Frankfort getting anymore than an inch of backside snows..
I do not agree since unless ice, every single system like this for central Kentucky has been a bust for 14 years. Not an exaggeration.
Let folks vent. It is a good thing. I look at the positive in that no snow to dig from my big driveway 🙂
Good point on the drive way stuff, but you know in your heart you would love to sweat a couple hours removing snow from the driveway, Chris has been watching the bengals game, he will show up on here soon and say most of central ky is still in the game for heavy snow!
prob right LOL
The fact of the matter is if he models are showing a big winter storm for us in CKY a few days out, might as well forget about it. They ALWAYS move NW, and hit Indiana. That’s just the reality for us around here anymore. Always a bridesmaid, never a bride so to speak when it comes to snow…
When we first started talking about this storm later last week, I kept reading people concerned it would go TOO FAR south, because of the blocking……..that it would not be very likely to go northwest………Well, if there is blocking, how is the blocking allowing it to continue to keep going more and more and more northwest? Is the blocking suddenly vanished? And I swear, Oklahoma is so freaking LUCKY these past few winters. They are so far south and they seem to have winter storms every year the past few years. GRRRRR
Yeah, and don’t forget Arkansas, they seem to get big snowstorms every winter, too.
Are, not is
All I want for Christmas is UK to beat Loserville and for Eastern Ky to get atleast a foot of snow from a storm system this winter!!